Australia AUD

Australia House Price Index YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.7%

Actual:

23.7%

Forecast: 23%

Previous/Revision:

21.7%

Period: Q4

What Does It Measure?

The Australia House Price Index (HPI) measures the changes in residential property prices, focusing on the valuation of houses and apartments in the Australian real estate market. This indicator assesses key areas such as overall price movements, market demand, and housing affordability, with values above 100 indicating price increases and values below indicating price declines on a year-over-year basis at a national level.

Frequency

The Australia House Price Index is released quarterly, with both preliminary and final estimates provided, typically published in the second month following the quarter's end.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the HPI as it significantly influences the property market and broader economic conditions in Australia, affecting consumer confidence and spending behaviors. Changes in house prices can impact mortgage lending, housing-related stocks, and the currency market by influencing interest rate expectations and economic growth forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The HPI is derived from data collected through various sources, including real estate transactions, property sales data, and assessments from property valuers. It uses a weighted average methodology to reflect price changes across different property types and locations, offering a comprehensive view of the housing market.

Description

The preliminary HPI is based on early data that can be revised, while the final report provides a more solidified figure incorporating all available data. The index is typically reported on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, allowing for a clear analysis of long-term trends, which is preferred here over month-over-month (MoM) or quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) comparisons due to the significant seasonal fluctuations in the housing market.

Additional Notes

The HPI serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting future consumer behavior and broader economic trends, such as inflation and employment rates. It is compared to other economic reports like employment data and GDP growth, often highlighting the interaction between the housing market and the overall economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Real Estate Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 15, 2022	23.7%	23%	21.7%	0.7%
Dec 07, 2021	21.7%	17.5%	16.8%	4.2%
Sep 14, 2021	16.8%	9%	7.5%	7.8%
Jun 15, 2021	7.5%	9.5%	3.6%	-2%
Mar 16, 2021	3.6%	4.7%	4.5%	-1.1%
Dec 08, 2020	4.5%	7.1%	6.2%	-2.6%
Sep 15, 2020	6.2%	6.8%	7.4%	-0.6%
Jun 16, 2020	7.4%	1.9%	2.5%	5.5%
Mar 17, 2020	2.5%	1%	-3.7%	1.5%
Dec 10, 2019	-3.7%	-5.4%	-7.4%	1.7%
Sep 17, 2019	-7.4%	-4%	-7.4%	-3.4%
Jun 18, 2019	-7.4%	-1.5%	-5.1%	-5.9%
Mar 19, 2019	-5.1%	-0.4%	-1.9%	-4.7%
Dec 11, 2018	-1.9%	-1.5%	-0.6%	-0.4%
Sep 18, 2018	-0.6%	-0.7%	2%	0.1%
Jun 19, 2018	2%	1.7%	5%	0.3%
Mar 20, 2018	5%		8.3%
Dec 12, 2017	8.3%		10.2%
Sep 19, 2017	10.2%		10.2%
Jun 20, 2017	10.2%		7.7%
Mar 21, 2017	7.7%		3.5%
Dec 13, 2016	3.5%		4.1%
Sep 20, 2016	4.1%		6.8%
Jun 21, 2016	6.8%		8.7%
Mar 22, 2016	8.7%		10.7%
Dec 15, 2015	10.7%		9.8%
Sep 22, 2015	9.8%		6.9%
Jun 23, 2015	6.9%		6.7%