United States USD

United States PCE Price Index YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

0.1%

USD

Actual:

2.6%

Forecast: 2.5%

Previous/Revision:

2.4%

Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 2.6%

Period: Jul

What Does It Measure?

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Year-over-Year (YoY) measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services consumed by households in the United States, providing an indication of inflation trends. It primarily focuses on how consumer prices evolve over time, assessing components related to core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices while encompassing a broader array of consumption expenditures.

Frequency

The PCE Price Index YoY is released monthly, typically published at the end of the month following the reporting period, and consists of both preliminary and final figures.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the PCE Price Index as it serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, directly influencing monetary policy decisions impacting interest rates. An unexpected increase may lead to bearish market sentiments for equities while bullish for the USD, as it may signal tighter monetary policy ahead.

What Is It Derived From?

The PCE Price Index is derived from national-level data collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), based on comprehensive surveys of consumer expenditures and price changes, incorporating inputs from various sectors. The index uses a chained Fisher index calculation, weighting various categories according to consumer spending patterns to assess overall price changes.

Description

The PCE Price Index is reported on a year-over-year basis, comparing the current month’s index level against the same month of the previous year, thus providing insight into long-term inflationary trends while eliminating seasonality effects. This YoY measurement is preferred as it highlights annual inflation trends that affect purchasing power and economic assessments over time.

Additional Notes

The PCE Price Index is a coincident economic indicator that reflects ongoing consumer price adjustments closely tied to economic conditions and consumer behavior. It is often compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) but tends to show lower inflation readings over time, signifying its role in broader inflationary trends influencing monetary policy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 31, 2025	2.6%	2.5%	2.4%	0.1%
Jun 27, 2025	2.3%	2.3%	2.2%
May 30, 2025	2.1%	2.2%	2.3%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2025	2.3%	2.2%	2.7%	0.1%
Mar 28, 2025	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Feb 28, 2025	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
Jan 31, 2025	2.6%	2.6%	2.4%
Dec 20, 2024	2.4%	2.5%	2.3%	-0.1%
Nov 27, 2024	2.3%	2.3%	2.1%
Oct 31, 2024	2.1%	2.1%	2.3%
Sep 27, 2024	2.2%	2.3%	2.5%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2024	2.5%	2.6%	2.5%	-0.1%
Jul 26, 2024	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
Jun 28, 2024	2.6%	2.6%	2.7%
May 31, 2024	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%
Apr 26, 2024	2.7%	2.6%	2.5%	0.1%
Mar 29, 2024	2.5%	2.5%	2.4%
Feb 29, 2024	2.4%	2.4%	2.6%
Jan 26, 2024	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
Dec 22, 2023	2.6%	2.8%	2.9%	-0.2%
Nov 30, 2023	3%	3%	3.4%
Oct 27, 2023	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
Sep 29, 2023	3.5%	3.5%	3.4%
Aug 31, 2023	3.3%	3.3%	3%
Jul 28, 2023	3%	3%	3.8%
Jun 30, 2023	3.8%	3.9%	4.3%	-0.1%
May 26, 2023	4.4%	4.1%	4.2%	0.3%
Apr 28, 2023	4.2%	4.5%	5.1%	-0.3%
Mar 31, 2023	5%	5.1%	5.3%	-0.1%
Feb 24, 2023	5.4%	4.8%	5.3%	0.6%
Jan 27, 2023	5%	5.1%	5.5%	-0.1%
Dec 23, 2022	5.5%	5.5%	6.1%
Dec 01, 2022	6%	5.9%	6.3%	0.1%
Oct 28, 2022	6.2%	6.1%	6.2%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2022	6.2%	6.2%	6.4%
Aug 26, 2022	6.3%	6.2%	6.8%	0.1%
Jul 29, 2022	6.8%	6.7%	6.3%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2022	6.3%	6.7%	6.3%	-0.4%
May 27, 2022	6.3%	6.4%	6.6%	-0.1%
Apr 29, 2022	6.6%	6.8%	6.3%	-0.2%
Mar 31, 2022	6.4%	6.5%	6%	-0.1%
Feb 25, 2022	6.1%	5.9%	5.8%	0.2%
Jan 28, 2022	5.8%	5.9%	5.7%	-0.1%
Dec 23, 2021	5.7%	5.5%	5.1%	0.2%
Nov 24, 2021	5%	4.9%	4.4%	0.1%
Oct 29, 2021	4.4%	4.4%	4.2%
Oct 01, 2021	4.3%	4.2%	4.2%	0.1%
Aug 27, 2021	4.2%	4.1%	4%	0.1%
Jul 30, 2021	4%	4.2%	4%	-0.2%
Jun 25, 2021	3.9%	4.2%	3.6%	-0.3%
May 28, 2021	3.6%	3%	2.4%	0.6%
Apr 30, 2021	2.3%	1.9%	1.5%	0.4%
Mar 26, 2021	1.6%	1.7%	1.4%	-0.1%
Feb 26, 2021	1.5%	1.5%	1.3%
Jan 29, 2021	1.3%	1.1%	1.1%	0.2%
Dec 23, 2020	1.1%	1.3%	1.2%	-0.2%
Nov 25, 2020	1.2%	1.4%	1.4%	-0.2%
Oct 30, 2020	1.4%	1.6%	1.3%	-0.2%
Oct 01, 2020	1.4%	1%	1.1%	0.4%
Aug 28, 2020	1%	1%	0.9%
Jul 31, 2020	0.8%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%
Jun 26, 2020	0.5%	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%
May 29, 2020	0.5%	0.3%	1.3%	0.2%
Apr 30, 2020	1.3%	0.9%	1.8%	0.4%
Feb 28, 2020	1.7%	1.9%	1.5%	-0.2%
Jan 31, 2020	1.6%	1.7%	1.4%	-0.1%
Dec 20, 2019	1.5%	1.3%	1.4%	0.2%
Nov 27, 2019	1.3%	1.2%	1.3%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2019	1.3%	1.4%	1.4%	-0.1%
Sep 27, 2019	1.4%	1.6%	1.4%	-0.2%
Aug 30, 2019	1.4%	1.5%	1.3%	-0.1%
Jul 30, 2019	1.4%	1.7%	1.4%	-0.3%
Jun 28, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.6%
May 31, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%
Apr 29, 2019	1.3%	1.4%	1.4%	-0.1%
Apr 29, 2019	1.5%	1.6%	1.3%	-0.1%
Mar 29, 2019	1.4%	1.4%	1.8%
Mar 01, 2019	1.7%	1.7%	1.8%
Dec 21, 2018	1.8%	1.7%	2%	0.1%
Nov 29, 2018	2%	2%	2%
Oct 29, 2018	2%		2.2%
Sep 28, 2018	2.2%		2.3%
Aug 30, 2018	2.3%	2.2%	2.2%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2018	2.2%	2.3%	2.2%	-0.1%
Jun 29, 2018	2.3%		2%
May 31, 2018	2%	1.9%	2%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2018	2%	2%	1.7%
Mar 29, 2018	1.8%		1.7%
Mar 01, 2018	1.7%		1.7%
Jan 29, 2018	1.7%		1.8%
Dec 22, 2017	1.8%		1.6%
Nov 30, 2017	1.6%	1.5%	1.7%	0.1%
Oct 30, 2017	1.6%		1.4%
Sep 29, 2017	1.4%	1.5%	1.4%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2017	1.4%		1.4%
Aug 01, 2017	1.4%		1.5%
Jun 30, 2017	1.4%		1.7%
May 30, 2017	1.7%	1.7%	1.9%
May 01, 2017	1.8%		2.1%
Mar 31, 2017	2.1%		1.9%
Mar 01, 2017	1.9%		1.6%
Jan 30, 2017	1.6%		1.4%
Dec 22, 2016	1.4%		1.4%
Nov 30, 2016	1.4%		1.2%
Oct 31, 2016	1.2%		1%
Sep 30, 2016	1%		0.8%
Aug 29, 2016	0.8%		0.9%
Aug 02, 2016	0.9%		0.9%
Jun 29, 2016	0.9%		1.1%
May 31, 2016	1.1%		0.8%
Apr 29, 2016	0.8%		1%
Mar 28, 2016	1%		1.2%
Feb 26, 2016	1.3%		0.7%
Feb 01, 2016	0.6%		0.4%
Dec 23, 2015	0.4%		0.2%
Nov 25, 2015	0.2%		0.2%
Oct 30, 2015	0.2%		0.3%
Sep 28, 2015	0.3%		0.3%
Aug 28, 2015	0.3%		0.3%
Aug 03, 2015	0.3%		0.2%
Jun 25, 2015	0.2%		0.2%
Jun 01, 2015	0.1%		0.3%