Japan JPY

Japan Leading Economic Index Prel

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.2
Actual:
107.7
Forecast: 107.5
Previous/Revision:
108.2
Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 107.5
Period: Apr
What Does It Measure?
The Japan Leading Economic Index (LEI) measures the future economic activity by assessing various economic indicators that typically lead the business cycle. Its primary focus includes components such as new orders, stock prices, and the money supply, helping to gauge future production, employment, and overall economic performance; a value above 100 indicates expansion while below suggests contraction.
Frequency
The Leading Economic Index is released monthly, and it primarily provides preliminary estimates that may be subject to subsequent revisions, typically published around the 10th of each month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the LEI as it provides insights into the future trajectory of the Japanese economy, affecting investment decisions related to Japanese assets. A stronger-than-expected LEI reading can boost investor confidence, leading to higher demand for the Japanese yen, stocks, and other equities, while weaker results may dampen market sentiment.
What Is It Derived From?
The LEI is derived from a composite of ten leading indicators, including stock market performance, new business permits, and consumer expectations, calculated using a diffusion index approach. The survey consists of responses from businesses and analysts that provide data reflecting economic activity, weighted to reflect their predicted influence on the economy.
Description
Preliminary data from the LEI reflects early estimates and indicators before they are finalized, offering an initial outlook on economic trends. This measure is primarily reported on a month-over-month (MoM) basis to reveal short-term changes in economic momentum, though it is interpreted in the context of historical trends year-over-year (YoY) for more comprehensive insight.
Additional Notes
The Leading Economic Index is considered a leading economic indicator, often used to anticipate turning points in the business cycle. Its results are closely watched by economists and policymakers alike, as it can indicate how Japan's economy might perform relative to global economic conditions and domestic challenges.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
107.7
107.5
108.2
0.2
107.9
107.8
108.2
0.1
108
108.4
107.9
-0.4
108.9
108.1
107.8
0.8
107
107.2
109.1
-0.2
108.6
108.9
108.9
-0.3
109.4
108.9
106.9
0.5
106.7
107.4
109.3
-0.7
109.5
109.4
109.1
0.1
108.6
109.3
111.2
-0.7
111.1
111.1
110.9
111.6
111.8
111.7
-0.2
111.4
111
112.1
0.4
111.8
111.6
109.5
0.2
109.9
110.1
110.5
-0.2
110
109.4
108.1
0.6
107.7
109
108.9
-1.3
108.7
108.6
109.3
0.1
108.7
108.8
109.2
-0.1
109.5
109
108.2
0.5
107.6
107.9
108.8
-0.3
108.9
109.5
109.1
-0.6
109.5
97
108.1
12.5
97.6
98.2
96.9
-0.6
97.5
97.9
98.2
-0.4
97.7
97.3
96.6
0.4
96.5
96.9
96.9
-0.4
97.2
97
97.7
0.2
97.6
98
98.6
-0.4
99
98.4
98.2
0.6
97.4
100.1
101.3
-2.7
100.9
100.2
98.9
0.7
99.6
100.5
100.3
-0.9
100.6
101
101.2
-0.4
101.4
101
102.9
0.4
102.9
101
100.8
1.9
101
99
100.1
2
100.9
102.8
102.5
-1.9
103.7
104.2
104.7
-0.5
104.3
103
103.9
1.3
103
101.5
101.5
1.5
102.1
100.2
100.2
1.9
99.7
101.5
101.3
-1.8
101.8
104
104.1
-2.2
104.1
103
104.6
1.1
104.1
103
102.6
1.1
102.6
104
103.8
-1.4
103
102
102.4
1
103.2
98.2
98.9
5
99.7
99.3
98.5
0.4
99.1
96
97.7
3.1
94.9
96
96.1
-1.1
96.6
93.2
94.3
3.4
93.8
93.2
93.3
0.6
92.9
88.6
88.5
4.3
88.8
88
86.7
0.8
86.9
85
83.8
1.9
85
81
78.4
4
79.3
80
77.7
-0.7
76.2
84.5
85.1
-8.3
83.8
83.6
91.9
0.2
92.1
90.4
90.5
1.7
90.3
90.3
91
91.6
90.8
90.8
0.8
90.9
90.6
91.6
0.3
91.8
91.8
91.9
92.2
92.3
91.9
-0.1
91.7
94
93.7
-2.3
93.6
93.2
93.6
0.4
93.3
93.6
94.9
-0.3
95.2
95.3
95.9
-0.1
95.5
95.5
95.7
96.3
96.4
97.1
-0.1
97.4
97.4
96.5
95.9
96.2
97.2
-0.3
97.9
97.9
99.1
99.3
99.5
99.6
-0.2
100.5
100.5
99.6
103.9
103.9
104.5
104.4
104.3
103.9
0.1
103.5
103.5
104.6
105.2
105.2
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.2
105.6
104.8
104.5
0.8
105
105.6
105.9
-0.6
105.8
105.8
105.6
104.8
106.2
106.6
-1.4
107.9
108.1
108.2
-0.2
108.6
108.9
106.5
-0.3
106.1
106.2
106.5
-0.1
106.6
106.7
107.2
-0.1
106.8
107.2
105.2
-0.4
105
105.2
105.7
-0.2
106.3
106.2
104.7
0.1
104.7
104.6
104.2
0.1
104.5
104.4
105.7
0.1
105.5
105.5
104.7
104.4
104.7
104.9
-0.3
105.5
105.4
104.9
0.1
105.2
105.6
102.6
-0.4
102.7
102.6
100.8
0.1
101
100
100.5
100.5
100.9
101.2
101.7
100
-0.5
100
98.6
100.7
1.4
98.4
99.6
99.7
-1.2
100
100.1
100
-0.1
100.5
100.8
93.3
-0.3
98.4
96.4
98.9
2
99.8
99.9
101.8
-0.1
101.4
102.26
101.8
-0.86
102
102.8
103.2
-0.8
103.9
103.9
104.2
102.9
102
101.6
0.9
101.4
102.1
103.5
-0.7
103.5
106
105
-2.5
104.9
106.3
106.5
-1.4