Switzerland CHF

Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Swiss Economic Institute (KOF)

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-3.2

CHF

Actual:

96.1

Forecast: 99.3

Previous/Revision:

98.6

Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul

What Does It Measure?

The Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators measure the expected economic activity in Switzerland over the next 6 to 12 months, specifically assessing a range of factors that indicate future growth or contraction in the economy. This composite index evaluates components such as investment sentiment, consumer behavior, and production expectations, with a key indicator being a reading above 100, which signals anticipated expansion, while readings below 100 indicate contraction.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the last working day of the month, and it includes a preliminary estimate subject to revision in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the KOF Leading Indicators closely because they provide insights into the trajectory of the Swiss economy, thus impacting financial markets significantly. Positive readings can bolster the Swiss Franc and Swiss equities, while negative surprises may lead to bearish sentiment in those assets due to reduced growth expectations.

What Is It Derived From?

The KOF Leading Indicators are derived from a survey that covers a broad spectrum of economic agents, including businesses and consumers, utilizing various data collection methodologies such as diffusion indices and weightings based on sectoral outputs and investment activities. This robust methodology ensures the index captures a comprehensive view of anticipated economic changes.

Description

The KOF Leading Indicators serve as a leading economic measure, providing advanced insights into future economic performance, which is essential for investors and policymakers. Preliminary estimates are released earlier to signal trends that may shift rapidly, while final figures provide a comprehensive review of economic expectations.

Additional Notes

As a leading indicator, the KOF index often precedes actual economic performance, making it valuable for anticipating changes in economic cycles. It is important to contextualize these readings alongside related indicators, such as the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) business cycle index, to better understand underlying economic conditions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CHF, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 30, 2025	96.1	99.3	98.6	-3.2
May 30, 2025	98.5	98.4	97.1	0.1
Apr 30, 2025	97.1	102	103.2	-4.9
Mar 28, 2025	103.9	102.2	102.6	1.7
Feb 28, 2025	101.7	102	103	-0.3
Jan 30, 2025	101.6	100.2	99.6	1.4
Dec 30, 2024	99.5	101.1	102.9	-1.6
Nov 29, 2024	101.8	100	99.7	1.8
Oct 30, 2024	99.5	105	104.5	-5.5
Sep 30, 2024	105.5	102	105	3.5
Aug 30, 2024	101.6	100.6	100.6	1
Jul 30, 2024	101	102.5	102.7	-1.5
Jun 28, 2024	102.7	101	102.2	1.7
May 30, 2024	100.3	102.3	101.9	-2
Apr 30, 2024	101.8	102.1	100.4	-0.3
Mar 28, 2024	101.5	102	102	-0.5
Feb 29, 2024	101.6	102	102.5	-0.4
Jan 30, 2024	101.5	98.2	98	3.3
Dec 29, 2023	97.8	97	97.2	0.8
Nov 30, 2023	96.7	96.6	95.1	0.1
Oct 30, 2023	95.8	95	95.9	0.8
Sep 29, 2023	95.9	90.5	96.2	5.4
Aug 30, 2023	91.1	91.5	92.1	-0.4
Jul 28, 2023	92.2	90.5	90.7	1.7
Jun 30, 2023	90.8	90.9	91.4	-0.1
May 30, 2023	90.2	95.3	96.1	-5.1
Apr 28, 2023	96.4	98.1	99.2	-1.7
Mar 30, 2023	98.2	100.5	98.9	-2.3
Feb 28, 2023	100	98	97.4	2
Jan 30, 2023	97.2	93.3	91.5	3.9
Dec 30, 2022	92.2	90.5	89.2	1.7
Nov 30, 2022	89.5	91.3	90.9	-1.8
Oct 28, 2022	90.9	93.2	92.3	-2.3
Sep 30, 2022	93.8	84.5	93.5	9.3
Aug 30, 2022	86.5	89	90.5	-2.5
Jul 29, 2022	90.1	95.2	95.2	-5.1
Jun 30, 2022	96.9	96.3	97.7	0.6
May 30, 2022	96.8	102.3	103	-5.5
Apr 29, 2022	101.7	99.4	99.2	2.3
Mar 30, 2022	99.7	100.8	105.3	-1.1
Feb 28, 2022	105	108.5	107.2	-3.5
Jan 28, 2022	107.8	106.3	107.2	1.5
Dec 30, 2021	107	106.4	107.5	0.6
Nov 30, 2021	108.5	109	110.2	-0.5
Oct 29, 2021	110.7	108.2	111	2.5
Sep 30, 2021	110.6	110	113.5	0.6
Aug 30, 2021	113.5	125	130.9	-11.5
Jul 30, 2021	129.8	130	133.3	-0.2
Jun 30, 2021	133.4	144.7	143.7	-11.3
May 28, 2021	143.2	136	136.4	7.2
Apr 30, 2021	134	119.5	118	14.5
Mar 30, 2021	117.8	104.6	102.6	13.2
Feb 26, 2021	102.7	96.6	96.5	6.1
Jan 29, 2021	96.5	102	104.1	-5.5
Dec 30, 2020	104.3	100.5	103.7	3.8
Nov 30, 2020	103.5	101	106.3	2.5
Oct 30, 2020	106.6	107	110.1	-0.4
Sep 30, 2020	113.8	106	110.2	7.8
Aug 28, 2020	110.2	90	86	20.2
Jul 30, 2020	85.7	75	60.6	10.7
Jun 30, 2020	59.4	77	49.6	-17.6
May 29, 2020	53.2	70	59.7	-16.8
Apr 30, 2020	63.5	63.5	91.7
Mar 30, 2020	92.9	81.6	101.8	11.3
Feb 28, 2020	100.9	97.5	100.1	3.4
Jan 30, 2020	100.1	97	96.2	3.1
Dec 30, 2019	96.4	94.5	92.6	1.9
Nov 29, 2019	93	95	94.8	-2
Oct 30, 2019	94.7	93.9	93.1	0.8
Sep 30, 2019	93.2	96.2	95.5	-3
Aug 30, 2019	97	94.5	97	2.5
Jul 30, 2019	97.1	93	93.8	4.1
Jun 28, 2019	93.6	94.9	93.8	-1.3
May 29, 2019	94.4	95.9	96.2	-1.5
Apr 30, 2019	96.2	96.9	97.1	-0.7
Mar 29, 2019	97.4	93.9	93	3.5
Feb 28, 2019	92.4	95.4	96.2	-3
Jan 30, 2019	95	97	96.4	-2
Dec 28, 2018	96.3	98.7	98.9	-2.4
Nov 30, 2018	99.1	99.5	100.2	-0.4
Oct 30, 2018	100.1	100.6	102.3	-0.5
Sep 28, 2018	102.2	101	98.9	1.2
Aug 30, 2018	100.3	101.1	101.7	-0.8
Jul 30, 2018	101.1	101.5	101.3	-0.4
Jun 29, 2018	101.7	101	100	0.7
May 30, 2018	100	104.5	103.3	-4.5
Apr 30, 2018	105.3	105.5	105.1	-0.2
Mar 29, 2018	106	107.3	108.4	-1.3
Feb 28, 2018	108	106.2	107.6	1.8
Jan 30, 2018	106.9	110.9	111.4	-4
Dec 22, 2017	111.3	110.2	110.4	1.1
Nov 30, 2017	110.3	109.2	109.8	1.1
Oct 30, 2017	109.1	105.5	105.8	3.6
Sep 29, 2017	105.8	105.5	104.2	0.3
Aug 30, 2017	104.1	107	108	-2.9
Jul 28, 2017	106.8	106	105.8	0.8
Jun 30, 2017	105.5	102.5	102	3
May 30, 2017	101.6	106.2	106.3	-4.6
Apr 28, 2017	106	107.8	107.2	-1.8
Mar 30, 2017	107.6	106	106.9	1.6
Feb 28, 2017	107.2	102	102	5.2
Jan 30, 2017	101.7	103.3	102.1	-1.6
Dec 23, 2016	102.2	103.1	102.2	-0.9
Nov 30, 2016	102.2	104	103.9	-1.8
Oct 28, 2016	104.7	101.8	101.6	2.9
Sep 30, 2016	101.3	100.8	99.7	0.5
Aug 30, 2016	99.8	102	103.5	-2.2
Jul 29, 2016	102.7	101.3	102.6	1.4
Jun 30, 2016	102.4	102.8	101.8	-0.4
May 30, 2016	102.9	102.8	102.6	0.1
Apr 29, 2016	102.7	102.8	102.8	-0.1
Mar 30, 2016	102.5	101.9	102.6	0.6
Feb 29, 2016	102.4	98.8	100.4	3.6
Jan 29, 2016	100.3	96	96.8	4.3
Dec 23, 2015	96.6	99.1	97.3	-2.5
Nov 30, 2015	97.9	100.2	100.4	-2.3
Oct 30, 2015	99.8	100	100.4	-0.2
Sep 30, 2015	100.4	100.9	101.2	-0.5
Aug 31, 2015	100.7	99.5	100.4	1.2
Jul 30, 2015	99.8	90.3	89.8	9.5
Jun 30, 2015	89.7	93.6	92.7	-3.9
May 29, 2015	93.1	90	89.5	3.1