China CNY

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

CNY

Actual:

51.5

Forecast: 50.5

Previous/Revision:

50.3

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Aug

What Does It Measure?

The China Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector, focusing on factors such as production levels, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. Specifically, the index assesses business conditions from the perspective of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry, indicating activity levels where a reading above 50 signifies expansion and below indicates contraction; it is a national indicator reflecting conditions within China’s manufacturing sector.

Frequency

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is released monthly, typically on the first business day of each month; it presents a preliminary estimate of manufacturing activity for the preceding month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Caixin Manufacturing PMI as it serves as a critical indicator of China's economic performance, which has significant implications for global markets. Strong readings can bolster investor confidence, leading to appreciation in the Chinese yuan and positively influencing commodity prices, while weaker results may signal economic slowdown and result in bearish sentiments for stocks and currencies.

What Is It Derived From?

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is derived from a survey of approximately 500 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, who provide insights on business conditions, including production, employment, and inventories. This survey employs a diffusion index methodology, where data is weighted to compute the final PMI, creating a snapshot of economic activities based on managers’ responses to current and future conditions.

Description

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI is often seen as a leading economic indicator since it provides advance notice of changes in overall economic activity. It is crucial for gauging the sector's health, as the manufacturing industry is a significant component of China's economy, influencing overall economic growth, employment rates, and inflation.

Additional Notes

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is closely watched alongside other indicators such as the official Manufacturing PMI, allowing for comparative analysis between private and state-run readings. As a coincident indicator, it reflects current economic conditions, aligning closely with broader economic trends and providing insight into potential future movements in the Chinese economy and global commodities.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Aug 01, 2025		50.2
Jul 01, 2025		49
Jun 03, 2025		50.6
Apr 30, 2025		49.8
Apr 01, 2025		51.1
Mar 03, 2025		50.3
Feb 03, 2025		50.5
Jan 02, 2025		51.7
Dec 02, 2024	51.5	50.5	50.3	1
Nov 01, 2024	50.3	49.7	49.3	0.6
Sep 30, 2024	49.3	50.5	50.4	-1.2
Sep 02, 2024	50.4	50	49.8	0.4
Aug 01, 2024	49.8	51.5	51.8	-1.7
Jul 01, 2024	51.8	51.2	51.7	0.6
Jun 03, 2024	51.7	51.5	51.4	0.2
Apr 30, 2024	51.4	51	51.1	0.4
Apr 01, 2024	51.1	51	50.9	0.1
Mar 01, 2024	50.9	50.6	50.8	0.3
Feb 01, 2024	50.8	50.6	50.8	0.2
Jan 02, 2024	50.8	50.4	50.7	0.4
Dec 01, 2023	50.7	49.8	49.5	0.9
Nov 01, 2023	49.5	50.8	50.6	-1.3
Oct 01, 2023	50.6	51.2	51	-0.6
Sep 01, 2023	51	49.3	49.2	1.7
Aug 01, 2023	49.2	50.3	50.5	-1.1
Jul 03, 2023	50.5	50.2	50.9	0.3
Jun 01, 2023	50.9	49.5	49.5	1.4
May 04, 2023	49.5	50.3	50	-0.8
Apr 03, 2023	50	51.7	51.6	-1.7
Mar 01, 2023	51.6	50.2	49.2	1.4
Feb 01, 2023	49.2	49.5	49	-0.3
Jan 03, 2023	49	48.8	49.4	0.2
Dec 01, 2022	49.4	48.9	49.2	0.5
Nov 01, 2022	49.2	49	48.1	0.2
Sep 30, 2022	48.1	49.5	49.5	-1.4
Sep 01, 2022	49.5	50.2	50.4	-0.7
Aug 01, 2022	50.4	51.5	51.7	-1.1
Jul 01, 2022	51.7	50.1	48.1	1.6
Jun 01, 2022	48.1	48	46	0.1
Apr 30, 2022	46	47	48.1	-1
Apr 01, 2022	48.1	50	50.4	-1.9
Mar 01, 2022	50.4	49.3	49.1	1.1
Jan 30, 2022	49.1	50.4	50.9	-1.3
Jan 04, 2022	50.9	50	49.9	0.9
Dec 01, 2021	49.9	50.5	50.6	-0.6
Nov 01, 2021	50.6	50	50	0.6
Sep 30, 2021	50	49.5	49.2	0.5
Sep 01, 2021	49.2	50.2	50.3	-1
Aug 02, 2021	50.3	51	51.3	-0.7
Jul 01, 2021	51.3	51.8	52	-0.5
Jun 01, 2021	52	51.9	51.9	0.1
Apr 30, 2021	51.9	50.8	50.6	1.1
Apr 01, 2021	50.6	51.3	50.9	-0.7
Mar 01, 2021	50.9	51.5	51.5	-0.6
Feb 01, 2021	51.5	52.7	53	-1.2
Jan 04, 2021	53	54.8	54.9	-1.8
Dec 01, 2020	54.9	53.5	53.6	1.4
Nov 02, 2020	53.6	53	53	0.6
Sep 30, 2020	53	53.1	53.1	-0.1
Sep 01, 2020	53.1	52.6	52.8	0.5
Aug 03, 2020	52.8	51.3	51.2	1.5
Jul 01, 2020	51.2	50.5	50.7	0.7
Jun 01, 2020	50.7	49.6	49.4	1.1
Apr 30, 2020	49.4	50.3	50.1	-0.9
Apr 01, 2020	50.1	45.5	40.3	4.6
Mar 02, 2020	40.3	45.7	51.1	-5.4
Feb 03, 2020	51.1	51.3	51.5	-0.2
Jan 02, 2020	51.5	51.8	51.8	-0.3
Dec 02, 2019	51.8	51.4	51.7	0.4
Nov 01, 2019	51.7	51	51.4	0.7
Sep 30, 2019	51.4	50.2	50.4	1.2
Sep 02, 2019	50.4	49.8	49.9	0.6
Aug 01, 2019	49.9	49.6	49.4	0.3
Jul 01, 2019	49.4	50	50.2	-0.6
Jun 03, 2019	50.2	50	50.2	0.2
Apr 30, 2019	50.2	51	50.8	-0.8
Apr 01, 2019	50.8	50.1	49.9	0.7
Mar 01, 2019	49.9	48.5	48.3	1.4
Feb 01, 2019	48.3	49.5	49.7	-1.2
Jan 02, 2019	49.7	50.1	50.2	-0.4
Dec 03, 2018	50.2	50.1	50.1	0.1
Nov 01, 2018	50.1	49.9	50	0.2
Sep 30, 2018	50	50.5	50.6	-0.5
Sep 03, 2018	50.6	50.6	50.8
Aug 01, 2018	50.8	50.8	51
Jul 02, 2018	51	51.1	51.1	-0.1
Jun 01, 2018	51.1	51.3	51.1	-0.2
May 02, 2018	51.1	50.9	51	0.2
Apr 02, 2018	51	51.8	51.6	-0.8
Mar 01, 2018	51.6	51.3	51.5	0.3
Feb 01, 2018	51.5	51.5	51.5
Jan 02, 2018	51.5	50.6	50.8	0.9
Dec 01, 2017	50.8	50.9	51	-0.1
Nov 01, 2017	51	51	51
Sep 30, 2017	51	51.5	51.6	-0.5
Sep 01, 2017	51.6	50.9	51.1	0.7
Aug 01, 2017	51.1	50.4	50.4	0.7
Jul 03, 2017	50.4	49.5	49.6	0.9
Jun 01, 2017	49.6	50.1	50.3	-0.5
May 02, 2017	50.3	51.2	51.2	-0.9
Apr 01, 2017	51.2	51.5	51.7	-0.3
Mar 01, 2017	51.7	50.8	51	0.9
Feb 03, 2017	51	51.8	51.9	-0.8
Jan 03, 2017	51.9	50.6	50.9	1.3
Dec 01, 2016	50.9	50.8	51.2	0.1
Nov 01, 2016	51.2	50.2	50.1	1
Sep 30, 2016	50.1	50.1	50
Sep 01, 2016	50	50.1	50.6	-0.1
Aug 01, 2016	50.6	48.7	48.6	1.9
Jul 01, 2016	48.6	49.1	49.2	-0.5
Jun 01, 2016	49.2	49.3	49.4	-0.1
May 03, 2016	49.4	49.9	49.7	-0.5
Apr 01, 2016	49.7	48.2	48	1.5
Mar 01, 2016	48	48.3	48.4	-0.3
Feb 01, 2016	48.4	48	48.2	0.4
Jan 04, 2016	48.2	49	48.6	-0.8
Dec 01, 2015	48.6	48.3	48.3	0.3
Nov 02, 2015	48.3	47.5	47.2	0.8