United States USD

United States Employment Cost Index QoQ

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-0.1%

USD

Actual:

0.7%

Forecast: 0.8%

Previous/Revision:

0.8%

Period: Q4

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Q1

What Does It Measure?

The United States Employment Cost Index (ECI) quantifies changes in the cost of labor, including wages, salaries, and employer-provided benefits. It primarily assesses the inflationary pressures in the labor market and is a crucial indicator of employment costs at the national level.

Frequency

The ECI is released quarterly, typically published in the last week of the month following the end of the quarter, and is available as a preliminary estimate and a final figure.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the ECI closely due to its implications for inflation and wage growth, which can influence monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. Higher-than-expected ECI results may stimulate bullish sentiment in currency and equity markets, while weaker readings could induce bearish corrections.

What Is It Derived From?

The ECI is derived from a comprehensive survey of employers, measuring cost changes across various industries and geographic regions. It utilizes a systematic methodology involving a fixed-weight index to ensure accuracy and comparability over time.

Description

The ECI reports changes in employment costs using a Year-over-Year (YoY) measurement, emphasizing long-term trends while eliminating seasonal fluctuations. This annual comparison aids in identifying structural shifts in labor cost dynamics, essential for economic analysis and policymaking.

Additional Notes

The ECI is considered a lagging indicator as it reflects past wage and benefit changes, providing insights into broader economic trends and labor market conditions. Its results are often juxtaposed with other relevant indicators, such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), to assess overall inflationary impacts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Feb 10, 2026	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	-0.1%
Dec 10, 2025	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2025	0.9%	0.8%	0.9%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2025	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Jan 31, 2025	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
Oct 31, 2024	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2024	0.9%	1%	1.2%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2024	1.2%	1%	0.9%	0.2%
Jan 31, 2024	0.9%	1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2023	1.1%	1%	1%	0.1%
Jul 28, 2023	1%	1.1%	1.2%	-0.1%
Apr 28, 2023	1.2%	1.1%	1.1%	0.1%
Jan 31, 2023	1%	1.1%	1.2%	-0.1%
Oct 28, 2022	1.2%	1.2%	1.3%
Jul 29, 2022	1.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.1%
Apr 29, 2022	1.4%	1.1%	1%	0.3%
Jan 28, 2022	1%	1.2%	1.3%	-0.2%
Oct 29, 2021	1.3%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%
Jul 30, 2021	0.7%	0.9%	0.9%	-0.2%
Apr 30, 2021	0.9%	0.7%	0.7%	0.2%
Jan 29, 2021	0.7%	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
Oct 30, 2020	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 31, 2020	0.5%	0.6%	0.8%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2020	0.8%	0.6%	0.7%	0.2%
Jan 31, 2020	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
Oct 31, 2019	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%
Jul 31, 2019	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2019	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
Jan 31, 2019	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2018	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2018	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2018	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.1%
Jan 31, 2018	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%
Oct 31, 2017	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%	0.1%
Jul 28, 2017	0.5%	0.6%	0.8%	-0.1%
Apr 28, 2017	0.8%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%
Jan 31, 2017	0.5%	0.6%	0.6%	-0.1%
Oct 28, 2016	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Jul 29, 2016	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Apr 29, 2016	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
Jan 29, 2016	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Jul 31, 2015	0.2%	0.6%	0.7%	-0.4%