United States USD

United States Christmas Day

Impact:
Medium

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
Christmas Day, while widely celebrated as a cultural holiday, serves as a measure of retail activity and consumer spending patterns in the United States. Its primary focus is on the overall economic impact reflected in metrics such as retail sales, employment in the retail sector, and consumer confidence, which collectively embody the holiday shopping season's significance.
Frequency
Christmas Day occurs annually, on December 25, and while it does not have a formal economic report, related metrics such as retail sales figures are typically released in the weeks following the holiday season.
Why Do Traders Care?
The economic relevance of Christmas Day lies in its historical correlation with heightened consumer spending, which can significantly influence retail stocks, overall economic growth, and market sentiment. A strong Christmas shopping season usually bodes well for currencies and equities, indicating a robust economy, while a weak performance may result in bearish pressures on financial markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The economic measurements associated with Christmas Day are derived from various retail sales data, consumer surveys, and reports from organizations such as the National Retail Federation (NRF). These metrics often include data collected from a multitude of retail establishments and online sales reports, reflecting consumer purchasing behaviors during the holiday season.
Description
The significance of Christmas Day extends beyond mere festivities, impacting various economic indicators including retail sales and employment levels within the sector. The holiday season is a period where consumer spending tends to surge, reflecting consumer sentiment and providing insights into the economic health of the country.
Additional Notes
As a coincident economic measure, Christmas Day not only highlights current consumer trends but also provides insights into broader economic conditions and trends in consumer confidence. Comparatively, it serves as a useful benchmark for assessing the upcoming economic year, in light of trends observed during this critical retail period.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected retail sales during the Christmas season can be classified as bullish for the USD and bullish for retail-sector stocks due to increased consumer spending and confidence.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise