United States USD

United States Retail Sales YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Big Surprise:
4.1%
| USD
Actual:
5.2%
Forecast: 1.1%
Previous/Revision:
5.2%
Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:
Period: May
What Does It Measure?
The United States Retail Sales Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the total sales of goods and services by retail establishments in the U.S. It primarily focuses on consumer spending, which is a critical component of economic activity, and assesses key areas such as overall consumer demand, purchasing trends, and retail sector health.
Frequency
Retail Sales YoY data is released monthly, typically on the advance estimate of the retail sales report, providing a preliminary insight into consumer behavior before subsequent final revisions.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales data as it significantly influences market expectations surrounding consumer spending, which affects economic growth forecasts. Strong retail sales figures often lead to bullish sentiment in financial markets, positively impacting currencies, stocks, and bonds, while weaker results can prompt bearish moves.
What Is It Derived From?
The Retail Sales YoY data is derived from a monthly survey of approximately 13,000 retail and food service firms in the United States. The figures represent an aggregate of spending across various categories, employing a systematic methodology that captures changes in consumer expenditures over time.
Description
Retail Sales YoY measures the percentage change in sales from the same month in the previous year, allowing economists and traders to gauge long-term trends and shifts in consumer behavior while eliminating seasonal variations. This metric is essential for understanding the economic landscape, as it directly correlates with consumer confidence and spending patterns.
Additional Notes
Retail Sales is considered a coincident economic indicator, as it moves in tandem with the overall health of the economy. Comparing Retail Sales YoY with other indicators like GDP growth or employment statistics can offer broader insights into economic performance and consumer sentiment across different regions.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
5.2%
1.1%
5.2%
4.1%
4.6%
2.6%
3.5%
2%
3.1%
3.5%
3.9%
-0.4%
4.2%
3.7%
4.4%
0.5%
3.9%
4%
4.1%
-0.1%
3.8%
3.8%
2.9%
2.8%
1.9%
2%
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
2.2%
0.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.9%
-0.1%
2.7%
1.8%
2%
0.9%
2.3%
2.1%
2.6%
0.2%
2.3%
2.8%
2.7%
-0.5%
3%
3.8%
3.8%
-0.8%
4%
2.5%
2.1%
1.5%
1.5%
1%
0%
0.5%
0.6%
5.8%
5.3%
-5.2%
5.6%
4%
4%
1.6%
4.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2%
2.5%
2.1%
4.1%
0.4%
3.8%
1.5%
2.9%
2.3%
2.5%
2.9%
2.6%
-0.4%
3.2%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.49%
1.6%
2%
-0.11%
1.6%
1%
1.2%
0.6%
1.6%
1.4%
2.4%
0.2%
2.9%
3.2%
5.9%
-0.3%
5.4%
4.3%
7.7%
1.1%
6.4%
4.5%
5.9%
1.9%
6%
5%
6%
1%
6.5%
7.9%
8.3%
-1.4%
8.3%
6.9%
8.6%
1.4%
8.2%
8%
9.4%
0.2%
9.1%
9%
10.1%
0.1%
10.3%
8.1%
8.5%
2.2%
8.4%
6.5%
8.2%
1.9%
8.1%
7.1%
7.8%
1%
8.2%
4.2%
7.3%
4%
6.9%
11%
18.2%
-4.1%
17.6%
15%
14%
2.6%
13%
15%
16.7%
-2%
16.9%
17%
18.2%
-0.1%
18.2%
15.9%
16.3%
2.3%
16.3%
12%
14.3%
4.3%
13.9%
9%
15.4%
4.9%
15.1%
13%
15.1%
2.1%
15.8%
11.5%
18.7%
4.3%
18%
14%
27.6%
4%
28.1%
55%
53.4%
-26.9%
51.2%
30.5%
29%
20.7%
27.7%
7.9%
6.7%
19.8%
6.3%
5.5%
9.5%
0.8%
7.43%
2.8%
2.53%
4.63%
2.9%
3.6%
3.7%
-0.7%
4.1%
5.4%
5.5%
-1.3%
5.7%
5.7%
5.9%
5.4%
2.2%
2.8%
3.2%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
0.1%
2.7%
1.9%
2.1%
0.8%
1.1%
-3%
-5.6%
4.1%
-6.1%
-24.6%
-19.9%
18.5%
-21.6%
-16.3%
-5.7%
-5.3%
-6.2%
-2%
4.6%
-4.2%
4.3%
2.7%
5%
1.6%
4.4%
4.9%
5.5%
-0.5%
5.8%
2.9%
3.3%
2.9%
3.3%
3.4%
3.2%
-0.1%
3.1%
3.8%
4.1%
-0.7%
4.1%
3.8%
4.4%
0.3%
4.1%
3.2%
3.6%
0.9%
3.4%
3.2%
3.3%
0.2%
3.4%
3%
2.9%
0.4%
3.2%
3.4%
3.7%
-0.2%
3.1%
3.8%
3.8%
-0.7%
3.6%
2.7%
2.2%
0.9%
2.2%
2.1%
2.8%
0.1%
2.3%
1.9%
1.6%
0.4%
2.3%
4.5%
4.1%
-2.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.8%
4.6%
4.5%
4.2%
0.1%
4.7%
5.2%
6.5%
-0.5%
6.6%
4.8%
6.7%
1.8%
6.4%
4.4%
6.1%
2%
6.6%
3.7%
6.5%
2.9%
5.9%
4.4%
4.8%
1.5%
4.7%
4.1%
4.9%
0.6%
4.5%
4.2%
4.1%
0.3%
4%
3.8%
3.9%
0.2%
3.6%
5.2%
5.2%
-1.6%
5.4%
5.6%
6%
-0.2%
5.8%
4.3%
4.9%
1.5%
4.6%
3%
4.8%
1.6%
4.4%
3.1%
3.2%
1.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.5%
0.1%
4.2%
3%
3.4%
1.2%
2.8%
3.8%
3.8%
-1%
3.8%
4.4%
4.6%
-0.6%
4.5%
5.2%
5.2%
-0.7%
5.2%
5.6%
5.1%
-0.4%
5.7%
5.5%
6%
0.2%
5.6%
4%
4.4%
1.6%
4.1%
3.8%
3.9%
0.3%
3.8%
3.6%
4.2%
0.2%
4.3%
2.6%
3.2%
1.7%
2.7%
2.4%
2.1%
0.3%
1.9%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.6%
2.3%
3.1%
2.7%
-0.8%
2.7%
2.9%
2.5%
-0.2%
2.5%
2.5%
3%
3%
2.2%
1.7%
0.8%
1.7%
4%
3.7%
-2.3%
3.1%
3.29%
3%
-0.19%
3.4%
2%
2.2%
1.4%
2.2%
1.65%
1.6%
0.55%
1.4%
2%
1.7%
-0.6%
1.7%
2.2%
2.2%
-0.5%
2.4%
2.5%
2%
-0.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.6%
-0.1%
2.4%
1.53%
1.4%
0.87%
1.4%
2.89%
2.3%
-1.49%
2.7%
1.23%
1.5%
1.47%
0.9%
1.5%
1.7%
-0.6%