Australia AUD

Australia Inflation Rate YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.1%
| AUD
Actual:
2.4%
Forecast: 2.3%
Previous/Revision:
2.4%
Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 1.8%
Period: Q2
What Does It Measure?
The Australia Inflation Rate YoY measures the annual percentage change in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. It primarily focuses on the costs related to essential expenditures, capturing key components such as food, housing, and transportation, and serves as an essential indicator of economic health and purchasing power.
Frequency
This indicator is released quarterly, providing a final figure that reflects the price changes over the preceding year, with reports typically published in the last week of the month following each quarter.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Australia Inflation Rate YoY due to its significant implications for monetary policy, influencing interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Higher-than-expected inflation can lead to tightening monetary policy, impacting the Australian dollar and affecting Australian equities, while lower readings may prompt easing, benefiting risk assets.
What Is It Derived From?
The inflation rate is derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which compiles data from a representative sample of around 17,000 goods and services priced through surveys across metropolitan areas. This approach relies on established methodologies such as weighted averages and diffusion indices to ensure accuracy and representation of changing consumer behaviors.
Description
The preliminary report of the inflation rate offers an early indication based on early estimates, while final data provides a more reliable measure of inflation trends as it incorporates all relevant adjustments. The month-over-month (MoM) changes, although significant, are often overshadowed by year-over-year (YoY) comparisons, which are used here to capture long-term inflation trends free from seasonal fluctuations, making it the preferred measure.
Additional Notes
The Australia Inflation Rate serves as a lagging economic indicator, providing insight into past economic conditions while influencing future monetary policy decisions. It is often analyzed in conjunction with other indicators such as wage growth and employment data to paint a fuller picture of inflationary pressures in the economy.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.4%
2.3%
2.4%
0.1%
2.4%
2.5%
2.8%
-0.1%
2.8%
2.9%
3.8%
-0.1%
3.8%
3.8%
3.6%
3.6%
3.4%
4.1%
0.2%
4.1%
4.3%
5.4%
-0.2%
5.4%
5.3%
6%
0.1%
6%
6.2%
7%
-0.2%
7%
6.9%
7.8%
0.1%
7.8%
7.5%
7.3%
0.3%
7.3%
7%
6.1%
0.3%
6.1%
6.2%
5.1%
-0.1%
5.1%
4.6%
3.5%
0.5%
3.5%
3.2%
3%
0.3%
3%
3.1%
3.8%
-0.1%
3.8%
3.8%
1.1%
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
-0.3%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.4%
2.2%
0.1%
2.2%
2%
1.8%
0.2%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
0.1%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
0.1%
1.3%
1.5%
1.8%
-0.2%
1.8%
1.7%
1.9%
0.1%
1.9%
1.9%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.9%
2%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.9%
2%
1.8%
-0.1%
1.8%
2%
1.9%
-0.2%
1.9%
2.2%
2.1%
-0.3%
2.1%
2.2%
1.5%
-0.1%
1.5%
1.6%
1.3%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.1%
1%
0.2%
1%
1.1%
1.3%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.8%
1.7%
-0.5%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
0.1%
1.5%
1.7%
1.5%
-0.2%
1.5%
1.7%
1.3%
-0.2%