United States USD

United States Core Inflation Rate YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

2.8%

Forecast: 2.8%

Previous/Revision:

2.8%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 2.9%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States Core Inflation Rate YoY measures the year-over-year change in the price of a basket of goods and services, excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy. This indicator primarily focuses on the underlying inflation trends in the economy, assessing price stability and consumer purchasing power, and is essential for evaluating economic health.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis and provides a final figure that reflects the changes in the core inflation rate, typically published in the middle of the subsequent month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Core Inflation Rate closely as it influences expectations regarding future monetary policy, particularly actions from the Federal Reserve concerning interest rates. Higher-than-expected inflation readings can boost yields on treasuries and strengthen the USD, while lower readings may have bearish implications for equities and the dollar.

What Is It Derived From?

The Core Inflation Rate is derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is calculated based on a representative sample of goods and services prices collected from urban consumers. This data encompasses a broad range of categories with adjustments for seasonal variations, and it focuses specifically on those prices that are less susceptible to sudden shifts.

Description

The Core Inflation Rate focuses on the stable components of consumer prices, which helps in identifying sustained inflationary trends in the economy, thus serving as an important gauge for economic policy-making. By excluding food and energy prices, which can be highly volatile, this indicator provides a clearer picture of long-term price trends.

Additional Notes

The Core Inflation Rate serves as a coincident economic measure that can influence future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. It is often compared to the overall CPI to assess the general inflationary environment and is critical for broader economic analyses concerning growth and consumer behavior.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 13, 2025	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Apr 10, 2025	2.8%	3%	3.1%	-0.2%
Mar 12, 2025	3.1%	3.2%	3.3%	-0.1%
Feb 12, 2025	3.3%	3.1%	3.2%	0.2%
Jan 15, 2025	3.2%	3.3%	3.3%	-0.1%
Dec 11, 2024	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
Nov 13, 2024	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
Oct 10, 2024	3.3%	3.2%	3.2%	0.1%
Sep 11, 2024	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%
Aug 14, 2024	3.2%	3.2%	3.3%
Jul 11, 2024	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%	-0.1%
Jun 12, 2024	3.4%	3.5%	3.6%	-0.1%
May 15, 2024	3.6%	3.6%	3.8%
Apr 10, 2024	3.8%	3.7%	3.8%	0.1%
Mar 12, 2024	3.8%	3.7%	3.9%	0.1%
Feb 13, 2024	3.9%	3.7%	3.9%	0.2%
Jan 11, 2024	3.9%	3.8%	4%	0.1%
Dec 12, 2023	4%	4%	4%
Nov 14, 2023	4%	4.1%	4.1%	-0.1%
Oct 12, 2023	4.1%	4.1%	4.3%
Sep 13, 2023	4.3%	4.3%	4.7%
Aug 10, 2023	4.7%	4.8%	4.8%	-0.1%
Jul 12, 2023	4.8%	5%	5.3%	-0.2%
Jun 13, 2023	5.3%	5.3%	5.5%
May 10, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.6%
Apr 12, 2023	5.6%	5.6%	5.5%
Mar 14, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.6%
Feb 14, 2023	5.6%	5.5%	5.7%	0.1%
Jan 12, 2023	5.7%	5.7%	6%
Dec 13, 2022	6%	6.1%	6.3%	-0.1%
Nov 10, 2022	6.3%	6.5%	6.6%	-0.2%
Oct 13, 2022	6.6%	6.5%	6.3%	0.1%
Sep 13, 2022	6.3%	6.1%	5.9%	0.2%
Aug 10, 2022	5.9%	6.1%	5.9%	-0.2%
Jul 13, 2022	5.9%	5.7%	6%	0.2%
Jun 10, 2022	6%	5.9%	6.2%	0.1%
May 11, 2022	6.2%	6%	6.5%	0.2%
Apr 12, 2022	6.5%	6.6%	6.4%	-0.1%
Mar 10, 2022	6.4%	6.4%	6%
Feb 10, 2022	6%	5.9%	5.5%	0.1%
Jan 12, 2022	5.5%	5.4%	4.9%	0.1%
Dec 10, 2021	4.9%	4.9%	4.6%
Nov 10, 2021	4.6%	4.3%	4%	0.3%
Oct 13, 2021	4%	4%	4%
Sep 14, 2021	4%	4.2%	4.3%	-0.2%
Aug 11, 2021	4.3%	4.3%	4.5%
Jul 13, 2021	4.5%	4%	3.8%	0.5%
Jun 10, 2021	3.8%	3.4%	3%	0.4%
May 12, 2021	3%	2.3%	1.6%	0.7%
Apr 13, 2021	1.6%	1.5%	1.3%	0.1%
Mar 10, 2021	1.3%	1.4%	1.4%	-0.1%
Feb 10, 2021	1.4%	1.5%	1.6%	-0.1%
Jan 13, 2021	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%
Dec 10, 2020	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%
Nov 12, 2020	1.6%	1.8%	1.7%	-0.2%
Oct 13, 2020	1.7%	1.8%	1.7%	-0.1%
Sep 11, 2020	1.7%	1.6%	1.6%	0.1%
Aug 12, 2020	1.6%	1.1%	1.2%	0.5%
Jul 14, 2020	1.2%	1.1%	1.2%	0.1%
Jun 10, 2020	1.2%	1.3%	1.4%	-0.1%
May 12, 2020	1.4%	1.7%	2.1%	-0.3%
Apr 10, 2020	2.1%	2.3%	2.4%	-0.2%
Mar 11, 2020	2.4%	2.3%	2.3%	0.1%
Feb 13, 2020	2.3%	2.2%	2.3%	0.1%
Jan 14, 2020	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%
Dec 11, 2019	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%
Nov 13, 2019	2.3%	2.4%	2.4%	-0.1%
Oct 10, 2019	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
Sep 12, 2019	2.4%	2.3%	2.2%	0.1%
Aug 13, 2019	2.2%	2.1%	2.1%	0.1%
Jul 11, 2019	2.1%	2%	2%	0.1%
Jun 12, 2019	2%	2.1%	2.1%	-0.1%
May 10, 2019	2.1%	2.1%	2%
Apr 10, 2019	2%	2.1%	2.1%	-0.1%
Mar 12, 2019	2.1%	2.2%	2.2%	-0.1%
Feb 13, 2019	2.2%	2.1%	2.2%	0.1%
Jan 11, 2019	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
Dec 12, 2018	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Nov 14, 2018	2.1%	2.2%	2.2%	-0.1%
Oct 11, 2018	2.2%	2.3%	2.2%	-0.1%
Sep 13, 2018	2.2%	2.4%	2.4%	-0.2%
Aug 10, 2018	2.4%	2.3%	2.3%	0.1%
Jul 12, 2018	2.3%	2.3%	2.2%
Jun 12, 2018	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
May 10, 2018	2.1%	2.2%	2.1%	-0.1%
Apr 11, 2018	2.1%	2.1%	1.8%
Mar 13, 2018	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%
Feb 14, 2018	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.1%
Jan 12, 2018	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	0.1%
Dec 13, 2017	1.7%	1.8%	1.8%	-0.1%
Nov 15, 2017	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	0.1%
Oct 13, 2017	1.7%	1.8%	1.7%	-0.1%
Sep 14, 2017	1.7%	1.6%	1.7%	0.1%
Aug 11, 2017	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
Jul 14, 2017	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
Jun 14, 2017	1.7%	1.9%	1.9%	-0.2%
May 12, 2017	1.9%	2%	2%	-0.1%
Apr 14, 2017	2%	2.3%	2.2%	-0.3%
Mar 15, 2017	2.2%	2.2%	2.3%
Feb 15, 2017	2.3%	2.1%	2.2%	0.2%
Jan 18, 2017	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Dec 15, 2016	2.1%	2.2%	2.1%	-0.1%
Nov 17, 2016	2.1%	2.2%	2.2%	-0.1%
Oct 18, 2016	2.2%	2.3%	2.3%	-0.1%
Sep 16, 2016	2.3%	2.2%	2.2%	0.1%
Aug 16, 2016	2.2%	2.3%	2.3%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2016	2.3%	2.3%	2.2%
Jun 16, 2016	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
May 17, 2016	2.1%	2.1%	2.2%
Apr 14, 2016	2.2%	2.3%	2.3%	-0.1%
Mar 16, 2016	2.3%	2.2%	2.2%	0.1%
Feb 19, 2016	2.2%	2.1%	2.1%	0.1%
Jan 20, 2016	2.1%	2.1%	2%
Dec 15, 2015	2%	2%	1.9%
Nov 17, 2015	1.9%	1.9%	1.9%
Oct 15, 2015	1.9%	1.8%	1.8%	0.1%
Sep 16, 2015	1.8%	1.9%	1.8%	-0.1%
Aug 19, 2015	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%
Jul 17, 2015	1.8%	1.8%	1.7%
Jun 18, 2015	1.7%	1.8%	1.8%	-0.1%
May 22, 2015	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.1%