United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.2%

GBP

Actual:

1.4%

Forecast: 1.2%

Previous/Revision:

0.5%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.4%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Core Inflation Rate measures the rate of inflation in the United Kingdom, excluding volatile items such as food and energy prices. It specifically focuses on the underlying inflation trends impacting consumer price levels and purchasing power, and is a vital component in assessing economic health and monetary policy decisions.

Frequency

The Core Inflation Rate is typically released on a monthly basis, with the final figures published around the middle of the month following the data collection period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Core Inflation Rate because it serves as a key indicator of underlying inflationary pressures which can influence the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions. Higher-than-expected inflation data can lead to a stronger British Pound (GBP) and impact equities, while lower readings may lead to concerns about economic growth and potentially weak financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Core Inflation Rate is derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which collects price changes for a basket of goods and services through surveys conducted with households and businesses. This calculation involves excluding items with high volatility, allowing economists to focus on more stable inflation trends over time.

Description

The Core Inflation Rate report distinguishes between preliminary and final data, with preliminary estimates released shortly after the collection period and often subject to revisions. While the preliminary data is significant for immediate market reactions due to its timeliness, the final report offers a more refined and accurate picture of inflation trends, which can lead to shifts in trader sentiment once it is published.

Additional Notes

This indicator functions as a coincident economic measure, providing insights into current economic conditions and trends in consumer spending. It often correlates with other inflation indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Retail Price Index (RPI), and can serve as a precursor to broader economic assessments in both the UK and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually bad for the GBP but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 21, 2025	1.4%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%
Apr 16, 2025	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Mar 26, 2025	0.4%	0.5%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Feb 19, 2025	-0.4%	-0.5%	0.3%	0.1%
Jan 15, 2025	0.3%	0.5%	0%	-0.2%
Dec 18, 2024	0%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.2%
Nov 20, 2024	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 16, 2024	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.2%
Sep 18, 2024	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Aug 14, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Jul 17, 2024	0.2%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Jun 19, 2024	0.5%	0.2%	0.9%	0.3%
May 22, 2024	0.9%	0.7%	0.6%	0.2%
Apr 17, 2024	0.6%	0.3%	0.6%	0.3%
Mar 20, 2024	0.6%	0.7%	-0.9%	-0.1%
Feb 14, 2024	-0.9%	-0.8%	0.6%	-0.1%
Jan 17, 2024	0.6%	0.4%	-0.3%	0.2%
Dec 20, 2023	-0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.5%
Nov 15, 2023	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%	-0.1%
Oct 18, 2023	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Sep 20, 2023	0.1%	0.6%	0.3%	-0.5%
Aug 16, 2023	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jul 19, 2023	0.2%	0.4%	0.8%	-0.2%
Jun 21, 2023	0.8%	0.6%	1.3%	0.2%
May 24, 2023	1.3%	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%
Apr 19, 2023	0.9%	0.6%	1.2%	0.3%
Mar 22, 2023	1.2%	0.8%	-0.9%	0.4%
Feb 15, 2023	-0.9%	-0.5%	0.5%	-0.4%
Jan 18, 2023	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
Dec 14, 2022	0.3%	0.5%	0.7%	-0.2%
Nov 16, 2022	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%
Oct 19, 2022	0.6%	0.5%	0.8%	0.1%
Sep 14, 2022	0.8%	0.8%	0.3%
Aug 17, 2022	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Jul 20, 2022	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jun 22, 2022	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	-0.1%
May 18, 2022	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%
Apr 13, 2022	0.9%	0.5%	0.8%	0.4%
Mar 23, 2022	0.8%	0.5%	-0.4%	0.3%
Feb 16, 2022	-0.4%	-0.4%	0.5%
Jan 19, 2022	0.5%	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%
Dec 15, 2021	0.5%	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Nov 17, 2021	0.7%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Oct 20, 2021	0.4%	0.5%	0.7%	-0.1%
Sep 15, 2021	0.7%	0.4%	0%	0.3%
Aug 18, 2021	0%	0.1%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jul 14, 2021	0.5%	0.2%	0.8%	0.3%
Jun 16, 2021	0.8%	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
May 19, 2021	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.1%
Apr 21, 2021	0.4%	0.3%	0%	0.1%
Mar 24, 2021	0%	0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Feb 17, 2021	-0.5%	-0.7%	0.3%	0.2%
Jan 20, 2021	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
Dec 16, 2020	-0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.3%
Nov 18, 2020	0.2%	0%	0.6%	0.2%
Oct 21, 2020	0.6%	0.6%	-0.6%
Sep 16, 2020	-0.6%	-0.9%	0.4%	0.3%
Aug 19, 2020	0.4%	0%	0.2%	0.4%
Jul 15, 2020	0.2%	-0.1%	0%	0.3%
Jun 17, 2020	0%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
May 20, 2020	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 22, 2020	0.1%	0.2%	0.6%	-0.1%
Mar 25, 2020	0.6%	0.4%	-0.6%	0.2%
Feb 19, 2020	-0.6%	-0.6%	0%
Jan 15, 2020	0%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.2%
Dec 18, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Nov 13, 2019	0.1%	0%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 16, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Sep 18, 2019	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%	-0.3%
Aug 14, 2019	0.1%	-0.1%	0%	0.2%
Jul 17, 2019	0%	0%	0.2%
Jun 19, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
May 22, 2019	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%
Apr 17, 2019	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%
Mar 20, 2019	0.5%	0.5%	-0.8%
Feb 13, 2019	-0.8%	-0.8%	0.3%
Jan 16, 2019	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%