United States USD

United States 30-Year Mortgage Rate

Impact:
Low
Source: Freddie Mac

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
6.85%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
6.89%
Period: Jun/05

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Jun/12
What Does It Measure?
The United States 30-Year Mortgage Rate measures the interest rate charged on a standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan. It primarily focuses on the cost of borrowing for residential homebuyers and assesses key areas such as housing affordability, consumer confidence, and overall economic conditions, impacting both the real estate market and macroeconomic trends.
Frequency
This indicator is published weekly, with the data typically released every Thursday, providing a timely snapshot of the evolving mortgage landscape.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the 30-Year Mortgage Rate as it serves as a barometer for housing market activity and influences market expectations around consumer spending and overall economic growth. Higher rates can dampen housing demand and negatively affect equities and real estate investment trusts (REITs), while lower rates can stimulate higher housing demand and boost related stocks.
What Is It Derived From?
The 30-Year Mortgage Rate is derived from a survey conducted by Freddie Mac that incorporates responses from a range of lenders offering conventional mortgage products. This survey captures data on mortgage rates, loan terms, and borrower profiles, adhering to industry standards to ensure accuracy and consistency across reporting periods.
Description
This rate reflects the average interest charged on new mortgage loans and is typically reported as a percentage, representing the cost to borrowers over a 30-year repayment period. The preliminary report offers initial insights based on early data, while the final report presents more accurate figures that may be revised post-publication, emphasizing the evolving economic landscape. Month-over-Month (MoM), Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ), and Year-over-Year (YoY) reporting are not distinctively applied here, as the primary focus remains on the weekly changes that reflect immediate market conditions.
Additional Notes
The 30-Year Mortgage Rate serves as a coincident indicator of economic health, closely aligning with trends in the housing market, consumer spending, and overall economic activity. It is often compared to related indicators like home sales and construction activity, reflecting broader economic trends both nationally and globally.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the 30-Year Mortgage Rate is reported higher than expected, it is typically bearish for the USD and bearish for stocks due to rising borrowing costs that can constrain consumer spending; conversely, if it's lower than expected, it is bullish for the USD and bullish for stocks as reduced rates can lead to increased housing activity and consumer confidence.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
6.85%
6.89%
6.89%
6.86%
6.86%
6.81%
6.81%
6.76%
6.76%
6.76%
6.76%
6.81%
6.81%
6.83%
6.83%
6.62%
6.62%
6.64%
6.64%
6.65%
6.65%
6.67%
6.67%
6.65%
6.65%
6.63%
6.63%
6.76%
6.76%
6.85%
6.85%
6.87%
6.87%
6.89%
6.89%
6.95%
6.95%
6.96%
6.96%
7.04%
7.04%
6.93%
6.93%
6.91%
6.91%
6.85%
6.85%
6.72%
6.72%
6.6%
6.6%
6.69%
6.69%
6.81%
6.81%
6.84%
6.84%
6.78%
6.78%
6.79%
6.79%
6.72%
6.72%
6.54%
6.54%
6.44%
6.44%
6.32%
6.32%
6.12%
6.12%
6.08%
6.08%
6.09%
6.09%
6.2%
6.2%
6.35%
6.35%
6.35%
6.35%
6.46%
6.46%
6.49%
6.49%
6.47%
6.47%
6.73%
6.73%
6.78%
6.78%
6.77%
6.77%
6.89%
6.89%
6.95%
6.95%
6.86%
6.86%
6.87%
6.87%
6.95%
6.95%
6.99%
6.99%
7.03%
7.03%
6.94%
6.94%
7.02%
7.02%
7.09%
7.09%
7.22%
7.22%
7.17%
7.17%
7.1%
7.1%
6.88%
6.88%
6.82%
6.82%
6.79%
6.79%
6.87%
6.87%
6.74%
6.74%
6.88%
6.88%
6.94%
6.94%
6.9%
6.9%
6.77%
6.77%
6.64%
6.64%
6.63%
6.63%
6.69%
6.69%
6.6%
6.6%
6.66%
6.66%
6.62%
6.62%
6.61%
6.61%
6.67%
6.67%
6.95%
6.95%
7.03%
7.03%
7.22%
7.22%
7.29%
7.29%
7.44%
7.44%
7.5%
7.5%
7.76%
7.76%
7.79%
7.79%
7.63%
7.63%
7.57%
7.57%
7.49%
7.49%
7.31%
7.31%
7.19%
7.19%
7.18%
7.18%
7.12%
7.12%
7.18%
7.18%
7.23%
7.23%
7.09%
7.09%
6.96%
6.96%
6.9%
6.9%
6.81%
6.81%
6.78%
6.78%
6.96%
6.96%
6.81%
6.81%
6.71%
6.71%
6.67%
6.67%
6.69%
6.69%
6.71%
6.71%
6.79%
6.79%
6.57%