United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Supplementary Budget

Impact:
High

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United Kingdom Supplementary Budget measures the government's fiscal policy adjustments, specifically tracking changes in revenue and expenditure, affecting overall economic performance and public sector debt. The primary focus is on public spending, tax revenue projections, and forecasts for economic growth, shaping key indicators such as the budget deficit or surplus.
Frequency
The Supplementary Budget is typically released annually, usually during the autumn, and it may include preliminary estimates that could be revised in future reports.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Supplementary Budget because it can influence market sentiment and affect asset prices, including currencies like the GBP, equities, and government bonds. A more expansionary budget can be bullish for the stock market but could lead to concerns about inflation or higher borrowing costs, impacting the currency negatively.
What Is It Derived From?
The Supplementary Budget is derived from various economic forecasts and fiscal analyses conducted by governmental bodies, incorporating input from economists and financial institutions. It is calculated based on comprehensive macroeconomic data, including tax revenues, social welfare needs, and projected economic growth rates.
Description
The Supplementary Budget provides a revised fiscal plan that reflects updated economic conditions or unexpected shifts in revenue and expenditure. It serves as a vital communication tool for the government, informing public expectations and guiding fiscal policy, and it can indicate shifts towards either expansionary or contractionary measures depending on the economic climate.
Additional Notes
As a coincident economic measure, the Supplementary Budget closely relates to other fiscal indicators like GDP growth and inflation rates, providing an insight into the government’s immediate economic strategies. It can also be contrasted against annual budgets or prior supplementary budgets to identify trends in government spending and revenue collection.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling increased government spending is usually good for the GBP but may be bad for Stocks due to potential higher borrowing costs impacting future growth prospects.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise