Australia AUD

Australia RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The RBA Statement on Monetary Policy measures the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) assessment of economic conditions and its monetary policy stance. It primarily focuses on inflation, economic growth, employment, and the overall financial stability of Australia, serving as a comprehensive overview that informs expectations about future monetary policy decisions.

Frequency

The RBA Statement on Monetary Policy is released quarterly, typically on the second Friday of February, May, August, and November, providing either preliminary or final insights into the RBA’s economic outlook.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Statement on Monetary Policy because it affects expectations related to interest rates and overall economic health, which can significantly impact currency values (particularly the AUD), equities, and bond markets. A hawkish statement signaling potential rate hikes may bolster the AUD and stocks, while a dovish tone could lead to bearish sentiments in these markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The RBA Statement on Monetary Policy is derived from a combination of economic data analysis, projections, and surveys that include a variety of indicators such as inflation rates, unemployment figures, GDP growth, and financial market conditions. The RBA utilizes a structured and regular review process, including detailed forecasting and modeling of the Australian economy.

Description

The RBA Statement on Monetary Policy presents a comprehensive and detailed evaluation of prevailing economic conditions, projections, and associated risks within the Australian market. It incorporates an assessment of inflation trajectories, labor market dynamics, and GDP forecasts, aimed at providing transparency regarding the RBA's policy decisions and approach to managing the economy over the medium term.

Additional Notes

This statement is considered a lagging indicator as it reflects the RBA's retrospective analysis and forecasts based on past and current economic conditions. Comparisons to other economic reports, such as the monthly consumer price index or employment data, are vital to contextualizing its implications for Australia's economic trajectory and aligning with global economic trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the statement is more positive than expected: Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. If the statement indicates a dovish stance: Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Nov 10, 2023
Aug 04, 2023
May 05, 2023
Feb 10, 2023
Nov 04, 2022
Aug 05, 2022
May 06, 2022
Feb 04, 2022
Nov 05, 2021
Aug 06, 2021
May 07, 2021
Feb 05, 2021
Nov 06, 2020
Aug 07, 2020
May 08, 2020
Feb 07, 2020
Nov 08, 2019
Aug 09, 2019
May 10, 2019
Feb 08, 2019
Nov 09, 2018
Aug 10, 2018
Nov 10, 2017
Aug 04, 2017
Aug 05, 2016