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Canada CAD

Canada PPI YoY Prel

Impact:
Low
Source: Statistics Canada

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.7%
Actual:
16.7%
Forecast: 16%
Previous/Revision:
14.9%
Period: Oct
What Does It Measure?
The Canada Producer Price Index Year-over-Year Preliminary (PPI YoY Prel) measures the price changes received by domestic producers for their output over a 12-month period. It primarily assesses the inflationary pressures at the wholesale level, focusing on the fluctuations in production costs which can ultimately influence consumer prices.
Frequency
The PPI YoY Prel is released on a monthly basis, with preliminary estimates usually published around the 20th of the following month, providing timely insights before final figures are available.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the PPI YoY Prel because it is indicative of inflation trends that can impact monetary policy decisions. A higher-than-expected PPI may lead to bullish forecasts for the Canadian dollar as it raises concerns about inflation, while lower readings can have bearish effects on the currency and stocks by suggesting weaker demand.
What Is It Derived From?
The PPI is calculated through comprehensive surveys conducted with a wide range of producers across various sectors, collecting data on the prices they charge for products at the wholesale level. The index uses weighted averages based on the importance of different industries, employing a methodology that adheres to industry standards for accuracy and representativeness.
Description
This preliminary report compares changes in producer prices from the previous year and typically releases data before the final report for the same period, which may reflect more accurate and comprehensive adjustments. This distinction is crucial as preliminary figures can significantly sway market sentiment upon release due to their immediacy, even as final reports might lead to subsequent adjustments when they become available.
Additional Notes
The PPI YoY Prel serves as a leading economic indicator, suggesting future consumer price changes, as fluctuations in producer prices generally precede alterations in retail prices. It is essential for gauging broader economic trends and inflationary expectations, facilitating comparisons with other indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to assess economic health.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the CAD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Nov 16, 2021
16.7%
 16%
14.9%
 0.7%
Oct 15, 2021
15%
 15.2%
14.7%
 -0.2%
Aug 13, 2021
16.2%
17.4%
Jul 14, 2021
16.2%
16.9%
Jun 15, 2021
16.9%
 13.7%
14.3%
 3.2%
May 13, 2021
14.2%
10%
Apr 15, 2021
9.4%
7.1%
Mar 15, 2021
6.9%
4%
Feb 12, 2021
3.8%
 1.5%
1.8%
 2.3%
Jan 13, 2021
1.5%
0%
Dec 11, 2020
0.1%
0.7%