Japan JPY

Japan GDP External Demand QoQ Prel

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Cabinet Office, Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

Actual:

-0.8%

Forecast: -0.6%

Previous/Revision:

0.7%

Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The Japan GDP External Demand QoQ Prel measures the contribution of net exports to Japan's Gross Domestic Product on a quarter-over-quarter basis, explicitly focusing on the balance between exports and imports of goods and services. This indicator assesses the impact of external demand fluctuations on economic growth, providing insights into the country's trade dynamics and overall economic health.

Frequency

This preliminary report is released quarterly, typically within the month following the end of the quarter, and it represents an early estimate of economic performance that may be subject to revisions in subsequent releases.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders are particularly interested in this indicator because it reflects shifts in external demand for Japanese products, which can significantly influence the value of the Japanese yen and impact related equities. Strong external demand usually translates to bullish sentiment for the currency and stock markets, while weaker-than-expected results may exert downward pressure on these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP External Demand QoQ is derived from a combination of trade statistics, specifically the values of exports and imports, collected from various sources including customs data, business surveys, and national statistical agencies. The calculation generally follows industry standards for trade accounting, creating a measure of net exports that reflects on economic performance due to foreign demand.

Description

This report presents preliminary estimates of Japan's external demand and indicates economic performance over the previous quarter by comparing it with the preceding quarter and assessing changes in the trade balance. It highlights significant trends in international trade, revealing insights into Japan's economic relationships and dependencies.

Additional Notes

The GDP External Demand serves as a coincident economic measure, closely connected with other indicators of economic performance such as manufacturing output and consumer spending. By analyzing trends in external demand, economists and traders can gauge Japan's responsiveness to global economic conditions and adjust forecasts and investment strategies accordingly.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the preliminary GDP External Demand shows higher than expected figures, this would be classified as bullish for the Japanese yen and bullish for stocks, reflecting strong international sales and confidence in Japan's economic resilience. Conversely, lower than expected figures would be bearish for the yen and bearish for stocks, indicating weaker demand and potentially leading to adjustments in monetary policy expectations.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	-0.8%	-0.6%	0.7%	-0.2%
Feb 16, 2025	0.7%	0.4%	-0.1%	0.3%
Nov 14, 2024	-0.4%	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.5%
Aug 14, 2024	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.5%
May 15, 2024	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.2%
Feb 14, 2024	0.2%	0.3%	0%	-0.1%
Nov 14, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	1.8%
Aug 14, 2023	1.8%	0.9%	-0.3%	0.9%
May 16, 2023	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.4%	-0.1%
Feb 13, 2023	0.3%	0.4%	-0.6%	-0.1%
Nov 14, 2022	-0.7%	-0.2%	0.2%	-0.5%
Aug 14, 2022	0%	0.1%	-0.4%	-0.1%
May 17, 2022	-0.4%	-0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%
Feb 14, 2022	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 14, 2021	0.1%	0%	-0.3%	0.1%
Aug 15, 2021	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%
May 17, 2021	-0.2%	-0.2%	1%
Feb 14, 2021	1%	1%	2.6%
Nov 15, 2020	2.9%	2.6%	-3.3%	0.3%
Aug 16, 2020	-3%	-3.2%	-0.2%	0.2%
May 17, 2020	-0.2%	0%	0.5%	-0.2%
Feb 16, 2020	0.5%	0.3%	-0.3%	0.2%
Nov 13, 2019	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Aug 08, 2019	-0.3%	-0.5%	0.4%	0.2%
May 19, 2019	0.4%	0.3%	-0.3%	0.1%
Feb 13, 2019	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.1%	0.1%
Nov 13, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Aug 09, 2018	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
May 15, 2018	0.1%		-0.1%
Feb 13, 2018	0%		0.5%
Nov 14, 2017	0.5%	0.4%	-0.2%	0.1%
Aug 13, 2017	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.1%
May 17, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%
Nov 13, 2016	0.5%	0.4%	-0.2%	0.1%
Aug 14, 2016	-0.3%	0%	0.1%	-0.3%
May 17, 2016	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%