United States USD

United States ADP Employment Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-27K

USD

Actual:

103K

Forecast: 130K

Previous/Revision:

106K

Period: Nov

What Does It Measure?

The ADP Employment Change measures the monthly change in employment in the United States, focusing specifically on private-sector job creation. It assesses the health of the labor market by tracking the number of jobs added or lost, with key indicators being the overall employment change and employment fluctuations across sectors like goods-producing and service-providing.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the first Wednesday of the month, and it represents a preliminary estimate of private sector employment based on payroll data.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the ADP Employment Change because it serves as a leading indicator for the official nonfarm payrolls report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, directly impacting financial markets. A higher-than-expected employment change can bolster the U.S. dollar and equities, whereas weaker data may negatively affect these assets by lowering investor confidence.

What Is It Derived From?

The ADP Employment Change is derived from payroll data of over 400,000 U.S. businesses across various sectors and regions, using a sample size that represents millions of employees. The indicator is calculated using a weighted algorithm that takes into account changes in payroll figures, and it employs statistical techniques to ensure representative trends across the economy.

Description

This report provides a month-over-month snapshot of private employment changes, which allows analysts and traders to gauge economic momentum. As it comes before the more comprehensive government employment report, it offers valuable insights for anticipating shifts in economic conditions and labor market trends.

Additional Notes

The ADP Employment Change is generally considered a leading economic indicator, correlated with broader labor market trends reflected in other reports such as the unemployment rate and overall economic growth. Comparisons with other labor-related indicators, such as initial jobless claims, further enhance understanding of the employment outlook and economic health.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the ADP Employment Change shows a higher than expected increase: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. If the employment change is lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 06, 2023	103K	130K	106K	-27K
Nov 01, 2023	113K	150K	89K	-37K
Oct 04, 2023	89K	153K	180K	-64K
Aug 30, 2023	177K	195K	371K	-18K
Aug 02, 2023	324K	189K	455K	135K
Jul 06, 2023	497K	228K	267K	269K
Jun 01, 2023	278K	170K	291K	108K
May 03, 2023	296K	148K	142K	148K
Apr 05, 2023	145K	200K	261K	-55K
Mar 08, 2023	242K	200K	119K	42K
Feb 01, 2023	106K	178K	253K	-72K
Nov 30, 2022	127K	200K	239K	-73K
Nov 02, 2022	239K	195K	192K	44K
Oct 05, 2022	208K	200K	185K	8K
Aug 31, 2022	380K	180K	358K	200K
Aug 31, 2022	268K		380K
Aug 31, 2022	132K		268K
Jun 02, 2022	128K	300K	202K	-172K
May 04, 2022	247K	395K	479K	-148K
Mar 30, 2022	455K	450K	486K	5K
Mar 02, 2022	475K	388K	509K	87K
Feb 02, 2022	-301K	207K	776K	-508K
Dec 01, 2021	534K	525K	570K	9K
Nov 03, 2021	571K	400K	523K	171K
Oct 06, 2021	568K	428K	340K	140K
Sep 01, 2021	374K	613K	326K	-239K
Aug 04, 2021	330K	695K	680K	-365K
Jun 30, 2021	692K	600K	886K	92K
Jun 03, 2021	978K	650K	654K	328K
May 05, 2021	742K	800K	565K	-58K
Mar 31, 2021	517K	550K	176K	-33K
Mar 03, 2021	117K	177K	195K	-60K
Feb 03, 2021	174K	49K	-78K	125K
Dec 02, 2020	307K	410K	404K	-103K
Nov 04, 2020	365K	650K	753K	-285K
Sep 30, 2020	749K	650K	481K	99K
Sep 02, 2020	428K	950K	212K	-522K
Aug 05, 2020	167K	1500K	4314K	-1333K
Jul 01, 2020	2369K	3000K	3065K	-631K
Jun 03, 2020	-2760K	-9000K	-19557K	6240K
May 06, 2020	-20236K	-20000K	-149K	-236K
Apr 01, 2020	-27K	-150K	179K	123K
Mar 04, 2020	183K	170K	209K	13K
Feb 05, 2020	291K	156K	199K	135K
Dec 04, 2019	67K	140K	121K	-73K
Oct 30, 2019	125K	120K	93K	5K
Oct 02, 2019	135K	140K	157K	-5K
Sep 05, 2019	195K	149K	142K	46K
Jul 31, 2019	156K	150K	112K	6K
Jul 03, 2019	102K	140K	41K	-38K
Jun 05, 2019	27K	180K	271K	-153K
May 01, 2019	275K	180K	151K	95K
Apr 03, 2019	129K	170K	197K	-41K
Mar 06, 2019	183K	189K	300K	-6K
Jan 30, 2019	213K	178K	263K	35K
Dec 06, 2018	179K	195K	225K	-16K
Oct 31, 2018	227K	189K	218K	38K
Oct 03, 2018	230K	185K	168K	45K
Sep 06, 2018	163K	190K	217K	-27K
Aug 01, 2018	219K	185K	181K	34K
Jul 05, 2018	177K	150K	189K	27K
May 30, 2018	178K	190K	163K	-12K
May 02, 2018	204K	200K	228K	4K
Apr 04, 2018	241K	208K	246K	33K
Mar 07, 2018	235K	195K	244K	40K
Jan 31, 2018	234K	186K	242K	48K
Dec 06, 2017	190K	185K	235K	5K
Nov 01, 2017	235K	200K	110K	35K
Oct 04, 2017	135K	125K	228K	10K
Aug 30, 2017	237K	183K	201K	54K
Aug 02, 2017	178K	185K	191K	-7K
Jul 06, 2017	158K	185K	230K	-27K
Jun 01, 2017	253K	185K	174K	68K
May 03, 2017	177K	175K	255K	2K
Apr 05, 2017	263K	187K	245K	76K
Mar 08, 2017	298K	190K	261K	108K
Feb 01, 2017	246K	165K	151K	81K
Nov 30, 2016	216K	165K	119K	51K
Nov 02, 2016	147K	165K	202K	-18K
Oct 05, 2016	154K	169K	175K	-15K
Aug 31, 2016	177K	175K	194K	2K
Aug 03, 2016	179K	170K	176K	9K
Jul 07, 2016	172K	159K	168K	13K
Jun 02, 2016	173K	175K	166K	-2K
May 04, 2016	156K	196K	194K	-40K
Mar 30, 2016	200K	194K	205K	6K
Mar 02, 2016	214K	190K	193K	24K
Feb 03, 2016	205K	195K	267K	10K
Jan 06, 2016	257K	192K	211K	65K
Dec 02, 2015	217K	190K	196K	27K
Nov 04, 2015	182K	180K	190K	2K
Sep 30, 2015	200K	194K	186K	6K
Sep 02, 2015	190K	201K	177K	-11K
Aug 05, 2015	185K	215K	229K	-30K
Jul 01, 2015	237K	218K	203K	19K
Jun 03, 2015	201K	200K	165K	1K
May 06, 2015	169K	200K	175K	-31K