United States USD

United States Personal Income (MoM)

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.4%

Forecast: 0.4%

Previous/Revision:

0.5%

Period: Feb

What Does It Measure?

The United States Personal Income measure assesses the total income received by individuals, including wages, salaries, dividends, and interest, quantifying consumer spending capacity and overall economic health. It focuses on employment compensation and transfer payments while determining trends in consumer behavior that influence economic activity on a national level.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis, with data being a preliminary estimate typically published at the end of the month following the reporting period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor Personal Income data as it holds significant implications for consumer spending, a major driver of economic growth, which can impact currencies, equities, and bonds. Higher-than-expected income results are often seen as bullish for the U.S. dollar and stock markets, while disappointing figures might lead to bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The Personal Income figure is calculated based on various sources, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which collects data from surveys of business and non-business income across different sectors. The derived figures incorporate inputs from governmental transfers, compensation of employees, and rental income, applying industry-standard statistical methodologies.

Description

Personal Income is reported using a month-over-month (MoM) comparison, helping analysts identify immediate trends in income dynamics and consumer expenditure patterns. This measure is essential for understanding short-term shifts in economic momentum, making it a vital component for economic forecasts and investment decisions.

Additional Notes

As a coincident economic indicator, Personal Income provides insights into consumer confidence and spending power, which correlate closely with broader economic growth. It often serves as a leading signal for retail sales and overall economic performance, positioning it as a critical figure to watch in the context of economic cycles.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If actual results are higher than expected, this is bullish for the U.S. dollar and bullish for stocks. If lower than expected, this would be bearish for the U.S. dollar and bearish for stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 31, 2017	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
Mar 01, 2017	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Jan 30, 2017	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 22, 2016	0%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
Nov 30, 2016	0.6%	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
Oct 31, 2016	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%
Sep 30, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Aug 29, 2016	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Aug 02, 2016	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jun 29, 2016	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%
May 31, 2016	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Apr 29, 2016	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 28, 2016	0.2%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Feb 26, 2016	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
Feb 01, 2016	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Dec 23, 2015	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Nov 25, 2015	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
Oct 30, 2015	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.1%
Sep 28, 2015	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%	-0.1%
Aug 28, 2015	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Aug 03, 2015	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Jun 25, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jun 01, 2015	0.4%	0.3%	0%	0.1%