United States USD

United States Core PCE Prices QoQ

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.1%
| USD
Actual:
1.7%
Forecast: 1.6%
Previous/Revision:
1.6%
Period: Q4
What Does It Measure?
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, excluding food and energy prices to filter out volatility. It primarily focuses on inflation and assesses the purchasing power of the dollar, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and cost pressures in the economy.
Frequency
The Core PCE Price Index is released on a monthly basis, with the data provided as a preliminary estimate initially and a final figure published later; it is typically available at the end of each month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Core PCE Price Index as it serves as a key inflation gauge influencing monetary policy and financial markets; higher-than-expected results are often seen as bullish for the U.S. dollar while potentially bearish for stocks. The index’s implications for inflation expectations can lead to significant adjustments in interest rates, affecting various asset classes.
What Is It Derived From?
The Core PCE Price Index is derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, reflecting a broad survey of consumer spending habits across a wide array of categories to calculate price changes. The index uses a weighted aggregation methodology to adjust for changes in consumption patterns and ensures that it accurately reflects the cost of living.
Description
The PCE Price Index is reported as a month-over-month (MoM) and year-over-year (YoY) figure, highlighting both short-term and long-term trends in consumer prices. The MoM comparison sheds light on immediate price changes, while the YoY figure helps eliminate seasonal variations, allowing traders to assess structural inflation trends over a year.
Additional Notes
The Core PCE Price Index serves as a leading indicator for inflation and is watched closely by economists to anticipate future Federal Reserve policy actions. It is often compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which includes all items, to provide a comprehensive view of inflation dynamics.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates due to easing inflation concerns is usually good for the Currency but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Feb 28, 2019
1.7%
 1.6%
1.6%
 0.1%