United States USD

United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-1.5%
Actual:
5.1%
Forecast: 6.6%
Previous/Revision:
6.6%
Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 4.7%
Period: Jul
What Does It Measure?
The United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Preliminary report measures consumer expectations regarding inflation rates over the short and medium term, specifically looking at how these expectations might influence spending and saving behavior. It primarily assesses the anticipated rate of inflation over one year and five years, with higher values indicating increased inflation expectations.
Frequency
This report is released monthly, typically on the first Friday of each month, presenting preliminary estimates that may be revised in subsequent releases.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor this indicator closely as it is a key driver for monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, influencing interest rate expectations. A rise in inflation expectations could lead to bullish sentiments for commodities, while a decrease may bolster bond prices due to anticipated lower interest rates.
What Is It Derived From?
The Michigan Inflation Expectations are derived from a survey conducted among consumers, specifically asking respondents about their expectations for inflation over the coming years. The survey employs methodologies consistent with consumer sentiment analysis, weighing responses to form a representation of broader public sentiment.
Description
The Michigan Inflation Expectations can serve as a leading indicator of consumer behavior, as rising inflation expectations may prompt consumers to adjust their spending habits, thereby affecting overall economic activity. The report often reflects broader economic conditions, linking consumer sentiment to supply and demand dynamics in the market.
Additional Notes
This indicator is viewed as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current consumer attitudes about inflation, which can correlate with actual inflation trends. Rising inflation expectations from this report may signal potential future increases in consumer prices, impacting economic policy and market reactions both domestically and internationally.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates due to rising inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
5.1%
6.6%
6.6%
-1.5%
7.3%
6.6%
6.5%
0.7%
6.7%
5%
5%
1.7%
4.9%
4.4%
4.3%
0.5%
4.3%
3.4%
3.3%
0.9%
3.3%
3%
2.8%
0.3%
2.9%
2.7%
2.6%
0.2%
2.6%
2.7%
2.7%
-0.1%
2.9%
2.6%
2.7%
0.3%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
-0.1%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.5%
3.2%
3.2%
0.3%
3.1%
2.8%
2.9%
0.3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2.8%
2.9%
0.2%
2.9%
3.1%
3.1%
-0.2%
3.1%
4.5%
4.5%
-1.4%
4.4%
4.2%
4.2%
0.2%
3.8%
3.1%
3.2%
0.7%
3.1%
3.5%
3.5%
-0.4%
3.3%
3.3%
3.4%
3.4%
3.3%
3.3%
0.1%
3.3%
4%
4.2%
-0.7%
4.5%
4.6%
4.6%
-0.1%
4.6%
3.5%
3.6%
1.1%
3.8%
4.1%
4.1%
-0.3%
4.2%
3.8%
3.9%
0.4%
4%
4.4%
4.4%
-0.4%
4.6%
4.8%
4.9%
-0.2%
5.1%
5.1%
5%
5.1%
4.7%
4.7%
0.4%
4.6%
4.7%
4.8%
-0.1%
5%
5.1%
5.2%
-0.1%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
-0.1%
5.4%
5.3%
5.3%
0.1%
5.4%
5.7%
5.4%
-0.3%
5.4%
5.5%
5.4%
-0.1%
5.4%
5%
4.9%
0.4%
5%
4.9%
4.9%
0.1%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.9%
5%
4.9%
-0.1%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.6%
0.1%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
0.1%
4.6%
4.7%
4.8%
4.3%
4.2%
0.5%
4%
4.8%
4.6%
-0.8%
4.6%
3.8%
3.4%
0.8%
3.7%
3.2%
3.1%
0.5%
3.1%
3.4%
3.3%
-0.3%
3.3%
3%
3%
0.3%
3%
2.1%
2.5%
0.9%
2.3%
2.8%
2.8%
-0.5%
2.8%
2.4%
2.6%
0.4%
2.7%
2.6%
2.7%
3.2%
3.1%
-0.5%
3%
3%
3.1%
3.1%
3%
3%
2.9%
3.2%
0.1%
3%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
-0.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.5%
0.1%
2.5%
2.8%
2.8%
-0.3%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
0.1%
2.7%
2.5%
2.6%
0.2%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
2.6%
2.8%
2.9%
-0.2%
2.8%
2.5%
2.5%
0.3%
2.4%
2.5%
2.4%
2.6%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
3%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.9%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.7%
2.8%
2.5%
2.6%
2.4%
2.3%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%