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Germany EUR

Germany IFO Current Conditions

Impact:
Low
Source: Ifo Institute

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
2.3
Actual:
127.7
Forecast: 125.4
Previous/Revision:
125.5
Period: Jan
What Does It Measure?
The IFO Current Conditions Index measures the current state of the German economy as perceived by survey respondents, specifically focusing on the business climate and additional factors such as production, employment, and export conditions. Key indicators include the responses from business leaders about their assessment of the current economic situation, with values above 100 indicating a positive outlook and values below 100 suggesting negative sentiment, making it a national indicator.
Frequency
The IFO Current Conditions Index is released monthly, typically during the last week of the month, and comprises preliminary estimates that may be revised in subsequent reports.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the IFO Current Conditions Index because it provides insights into the health of the German economy, which is the largest in Europe. Stronger-than-expected results are typically bullish for the euro and European stocks, while weaker readings can lead to bearish sentiment across financial markets due to their implications for economic growth.
What Is It Derived From?
The index is derived from a survey conducted among approximately 9,000 German companies across various sectors, including manufacturing, services, and trade. The survey employs a diffusion index methodology, where responses are weighted to derive a comprehensive measure of business sentiment and conditions.
Description
The IFO Current Conditions Index serves as a coincident economic indicator reflecting current economic conditions based on business perceptions. It is essential for economic decision-making as it provides early signals related to economic activity, influencing policy decisions and market forecasts.
Additional Notes
The IFO Current Conditions Index is often compared with the IFO Business Climate Index, which includes expectations for future growth, making it a vital tool for assessing immediate versus future economic performance. This indicator serves as a coincident measure, reflecting the current economic landscape and aligning with broader trends observed in key economic metrics such as GDP growth.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Jan 25, 2018
127.7
 125.4
125.5
 2.3
Dec 19, 2017
125.4
 124.7
124.5
 0.7
Nov 24, 2017
124.4
 125
124.8
 -0.6
Oct 25, 2017
124.8
 123.5
123.7
 1.3
Sep 25, 2017
123.6
 124.8
124.7
 -1.2
Aug 25, 2017
124.6
 125
125.5
 -0.4
Jul 25, 2017
125.4
 123.8
124.2
 1.6
Jun 26, 2017
124.1
 123.3
123.3
 0.8
May 23, 2017
123.2
 121.2
121.4
 2
Apr 24, 2017
121.1
 119.2
119.5
 1.9
Mar 27, 2017
119.3
 118.3
118.4
 1
Feb 22, 2017
118.4
 116.7
116.9
 1.7
Jan 25, 2017
116.9
 116.9
116.7
Dec 19, 2016
116.6
 115.9
115.6
 0.7
Nov 24, 2016
115.6
 115
115.1
 0.6
Oct 25, 2016
115
 114.9
114.7
 0.1
Sep 26, 2016
114.7
 113
112.9
 1.7
Aug 25, 2016
112.8
 114.9
114.8
 -2.1
Jul 25, 2016
114.7
 114
114.6
 0.7
Jun 24, 2016
114.5
 114
114.2
 0.5
May 25, 2016
114.2
 113.2
113.2
 1
Apr 25, 2016
113.2
 113.8
113.8
 -0.6
Mar 22, 2016
113.8
 112.6
112.9
 1.2
Feb 23, 2016
112.9
 112
112.5
 0.9
Jan 25, 2016
112.5
 112.8
112.8
 -0.3
Dec 17, 2015
112.8
 113.4
113.4
 -0.6
Nov 24, 2015
113.4
 112.4
112.7
 1
Oct 26, 2015
112.6
 113.5
114
 -0.9
Sep 24, 2015
114
 114.7
114.8
 -0.7
Aug 25, 2015
114.8
 113.9
113.9
 0.9
Jul 27, 2015
113.9
 113
113.1
 0.9
Jun 24, 2015
113.1
 114.1
114.3
 -1
May 22, 2015
114.3
 113.5
114
 0.8