Germany EUR

Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Markit Economics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

1.8

EUR

Actual:

57.6

Forecast: 55.8

Previous/Revision:

58.4

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Germany, focusing on factors such as output, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. It provides crucial insights into production trends and overall economic activity, with a key indicator of a PMI value above 50 signaling growth and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The report is released monthly, typically as a preliminary estimate on the first business day after the survey period ends.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the PMI Flash as a leading indicator of economic performance, particularly because it can substantially influence the euro (EUR) exchange rate, stocks, and bond markets. Stronger-than-expected PMI results can uplift market sentiment and lead to bullish moves in equities, while weaker results may have a bearish effect.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers from around 400 manufacturing companies in Germany, assessing business conditions and expectations. The data collection methodology reflects a diffusion index approach, wherein responses on changes in business activity are weighted to produce the overall index.

Description

The Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash serves as an initial approximation of the manufacturing sector's performance, blending output levels and future expectations to gauge economic momentum. This preliminary reading is essential for economic forecasting and can lead to substantial market reactions due to its forward-looking nature and early timing relative to other reports.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic indicator, the PMI Flash is crucial for understanding economic trends and can also provide insights when compared to other similar indicators like the Markit Composite PMI. A divergence between these measures may signal shifts in economic sentiment and can impact investment strategies.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone, signaling economic support, is usually good for the EUR but bad for Stocks due to concerns about growth prospects.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 24, 2022	57.6	55.8	58.4	1.8
Feb 21, 2022	58.5	59.5	59.8	-1
Jan 24, 2022	60.5	57	57.4	3.5
Dec 16, 2021	57.9	56.8	57.4	1.1
Nov 23, 2021	57.6	56.9	57.8	0.7
Oct 22, 2021	58.2	56.5	58.4	1.7
Sep 23, 2021	58.5	61.5	62.6	-3
Aug 23, 2021	62.7	65	65.9	-2.3
Jul 23, 2021	65.6	64.2	65.1	1.4
Jun 23, 2021	64.9	63	64.4	1.9
May 21, 2021	64	65.9	66.2	-1.9
Apr 23, 2021	66.4	65.8	66.6	0.6
Mar 24, 2021	66.6	60.8	60.7	5.8
Feb 19, 2021	60.6	56.5	57.1	4.1
Jan 22, 2021	57	57.5	58.3	-0.5
Dec 16, 2020	58.6	56.4	57.8	2.2
Nov 23, 2020	57.9	56.5	58.2	1.4
Oct 23, 2020	58	55.1	56.4	2.9
Sep 23, 2020	56.6	52.5	52.2	4.1
Aug 21, 2020	53	52.5	51	0.5
Jul 24, 2020	50	48	45.2	2
Jun 23, 2020	44.6	41.5	36.6	3.1
May 21, 2020	36.8	39.2	34.5	-2.4
Apr 23, 2020	34.4	39	45.4	-4.6
Mar 24, 2020	45.7	39.6	48	6.1
Feb 21, 2020	47.8	47.8	45.3
Jan 24, 2020	45.2	45.2	43.7
Dec 16, 2019	43.4	44.5	44.1	-1.1
Nov 22, 2019	43.8	43.8	42.1
Oct 24, 2019	41.9	42	41.7	-0.1
Sep 23, 2019	41.4	41.4	43.5
Aug 22, 2019	43.6	43	43.2	0.6
Jul 24, 2019	43.1	45.1	45	-2
Jun 21, 2019	45.4	45.4	44.3
May 23, 2019	44.3	44.3	44.4
Apr 18, 2019	44.5	45	44.1	-0.5
Mar 22, 2019	44.7	48	47.6	-3.3
Feb 21, 2019	47.6	49.7	49.7	-2.1
Jan 24, 2019	49.9	51.3	51.5	-1.4
Dec 14, 2018	51.5	52	51.8	-0.5
Nov 23, 2018	51.6	52.2	52.2	-0.6
Oct 24, 2018	52.3	53.4	53.7	-1.1
Sep 21, 2018	53.7	55.7	55.9	-2
Aug 23, 2018	56.1	56.5	56.9	-0.4
Jul 24, 2018	57.3	55.5	55.9	1.8
Jun 22, 2018	55.9	55.9	56.9
May 23, 2018	56.8	57.8	58.1	-1
Apr 23, 2018	58.1	57.5	58.2	0.6
Mar 22, 2018	58.4	58.4	60.6
Feb 21, 2018	60.3	60.3	61.1
Jan 24, 2018	61.2	61.2	63.3
Dec 14, 2017	63.3	63.3	62.5
Nov 23, 2017	62.5	62.5	60.6
Oct 24, 2017	60.5	60.5	60.5
Sep 22, 2017	60.6	59	59.3	1.6
Aug 23, 2017	59.4	57.7	58.1	1.7
Jul 24, 2017	58.3	59.2	59.6	-0.9
Jun 23, 2017	59.3	59	59.5	0.3
May 23, 2017	59.4	58	58.2	1.4
Apr 21, 2017	58.2	58	58.3	0.2
Mar 24, 2017	58.3	56.5	56.8	1.8
Feb 21, 2017	57	56	56.4	1
Jan 24, 2017	56.5	55.4	55.6	1.1
Dec 15, 2016	55.5	54.5	54.3	1
Nov 23, 2016	54.4	54.8	55	-0.4
Oct 24, 2016	55.1	54.3	54.3	0.8
Sep 23, 2016	54.3	53.1	53.6	1.2
Jun 23, 2016	54.4	52	52.1	2.4
May 23, 2016	52.4	52	51.8	0.4
Apr 22, 2016	51.9	51	50.7	0.9
Mar 22, 2016	50.4	50.8	50.5	-0.4
Feb 22, 2016	50.2	52	52.3	-1.8
Jan 22, 2016	52.1	53	53.2	-0.9
Dec 16, 2015	53	53	52.9
Nov 23, 2015	52.6	52	52.1	0.6
Oct 23, 2015	51.6	51.6	52.3
Sep 23, 2015	52.5	52.8	53.3	-0.3
Aug 21, 2015	53.2	51.7	51.8	1.5