Japan JPY

Japan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Cabinet Office, Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-5.6%

Actual:

-4.8%

Forecast: 0.8%

Previous/Revision:

-2.4%

Period: Q2

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Q3

What Does It Measure?

The Japan BSI (Business Sentiment Index) Large Manufacturing QoQ measures the sentiment among large manufacturing firms in Japan, specifically assessing their outlook on current and future business conditions, including production levels, employment, and capital expenditures. This quarterly index provides insights into the manufacturing sector's health and overall economic activity at the national level.

Frequency

The Japan BSI Large Manufacturing index is released quarterly, with preliminary estimates typically published in the second month of the quarter, providing timely insights into business sentiment.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the BSI Large Manufacturing data because it can significantly influence market perceptions regarding the health of the Japanese economy, impacting assets such as the Japanese yen and equities. A stronger sentiment reflects positive business conditions, which may lead to currency appreciation and bullish stock market movements, whereas weaker sentiment could have the opposite effect.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from surveys conducted among a large sample of manufacturing firms in Japan, where respondents assess their business conditions and expectations on a scale. It employs a diffusion index methodology, where a reading above 50 indicates an optimistic outlook, while a reading below 50 signals a pessimistic perspective.

Description

The BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ compares business sentiment over consecutive quarters, focusing on changes in perceptions among large manufacturing companies. It is a critical component used by analysts and economists to forecast economic conditions and demand trends in Japan's manufacturing sector.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic indicator, the BSI helps identify shifts in economic activity before they are reflected in other statistics, such as GDP growth. Its relevance is heightened in the context of global supply chain dynamics and Japan’s role in international trade, where shifts in sentiment can influence broader regional or global economic trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling a potential easing in economic confidence can indicate lower interest rates, which is usually bad for JPY but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 11, 2025	-4.8%	0.8%	-2.4%	-5.6%
Mar 11, 2025	-2.4%	6.5%	6.3%	-8.9%
Dec 10, 2024	6.3%	-1%	4.5%	7.3%
Sep 11, 2024	4.5%	-2.5%	-1%	7%
Jun 12, 2024	-1%	-5.2%	-6.7%	4.2%
Mar 11, 2024	-6.7%	6.2%	5.7%	-12.9%
Dec 10, 2023	5.7%	1.1%	5.4%	4.6%
Sep 12, 2023	5.4%	0.2%	-0.4%	5.2%
Jun 12, 2023	-0.4%	1.1%	-10.5%	-1.5%
Mar 12, 2023	-10.5%	-2.5%	-3.6%	-8%
Dec 11, 2022	-3.6%	1.2%	1.7%	-4.8%
Sep 12, 2022	1.7%	-1.5%	-9.9%	3.2%
Jun 12, 2022	-9.9%	2.7%	-7.6%	-12.6%
Mar 10, 2022	-7.6%	-1.3%	7.9%	-6.3%
Dec 08, 2021	7.9%	10%	7%	-2.1%
Sep 12, 2021	7	-1	-1.4	8
Jun 10, 2021	-1.4	2	1.6	-3.4
Mar 11, 2021	1.6	10	21.6	-8.4
Dec 09, 2020	21.6	5	0.1	16.6
Sep 10, 2020	0.1	-10	-52.3	10.1
Jun 10, 2020	-52.3		-17.2
Mar 11, 2020	-17.2	-10	-7.8	-7.2
Dec 10, 2019	-7.8	4.5	-0.2	-12.3
Sep 10, 2019	-0.2	-12	-10.4	11.8
Jun 12, 2019	-10.4	4.5	-7.3	-14.9
Mar 11, 2019	-7.3	4.8	5.5	-12.1
Dec 10, 2018	5.5		6.5
Sep 11, 2018	6.5	8	-3.2	-1.5
Jun 11, 2018	-3.2	3.2	2.9	-6.4
Mar 11, 2018	2.9	10.3	9.7	-7.4
Dec 10, 2017	9.7	10.1	9.4	-0.4
Sep 12, 2017	9.4	-2.8	-2.9	12.2
Jun 12, 2017	-2.9	1.5	1.1	-4.4
Mar 09, 2017	1.1	8.4	7.5	-7.3
Dec 08, 2016	7.5	3.4	2.9	4.1
Sep 12, 2016	2.9		-11.1
Jun 12, 2016	-11.1		-7.9
Mar 10, 2016	-7.9	4.2	3.8	-12.1
Dec 09, 2015	3.8	12.1	11	-8.3
Sep 11, 2015	11		-6
Jun 11, 2015	-6		2.4