United States USD

United States 5-Year Note Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
4.071%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.995%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States 5-Year Note Auction measures the government's ability to raise funds through the issuance of five-year Treasury notes, focusing primarily on investor demand and interest rates. Key indicators include bid-to-cover ratios, which reflect market sentiment, and the interest rate set at auction, with interest rates above prevailing market rates indicating strong demand.
Frequency
The 5-Year Note Auction is held quarterly, with results typically released on the first Wednesday of the month following the auction.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the 5-Year Note Auction as it can signal investor confidence in U.S. government debt and influence broader bond market dynamics. A successful auction typically leads to a stronger dollar and affects stock prices, as changes in yields can impact the attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income investments.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from competitive and non-competitive bids submitted by institutional and retail investors, with the final yield calculated based on the accepted bids. The resulting data reflects the total amount of bids and the interest rates at which they were accepted, following established Treasury auction methodologies.
Description
The 5-Year Note Auction consists of preliminary data that indicates immediate market reactions to the auction results, subject to revision in later releases for more accurate numbers. The final figures, confirming the initial estimates, may be released days later and can affect market sentiment differently due to enhanced reliability. This auction typically utilizes a competitive bidding process, wherein bidders specify the yields they are willing to accept, ultimately influencing interest rates across financial markets.
Additional Notes
This auction acts as a coincident economic measure, assessing current investor sentiment and the overall health of the Treasury market. It plays a critical role in guiding interest rate expectations and can reflect broader economic conditions and trends.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. A bullish tone signaling higher interest rates is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
4.071%
3.995%
3.995%
4.1%
4.1%
4.123%
4.123%
4.33%
4.33%
4.478%
4.478%
4.197%
4.197%
4.138%
4.138%
3.519%
3.519%
3.645%
3.645%
4.121%
4.121%
4.331%
4.331%
4.553%
4.553%
4.659%
4.659%
4.235%
4.235%
4.32%
4.32%
4.055%
4.055%
3.801%
3.801%
4.42%
4.42%
4.899%
4.899%
4.659%
4.659%
4.4%
4.4%
4.17%
4.17%
4.019%
4.019%
3.749%
3.749%
3.5%
3.5%
3.665%
3.665%
4.109%
4.109%
3.53%
3.53%
3.973%
3.973%
3.974%
3.974%
4.192%
4.192%
4.228%
4.228%
3.23%
3.23%
2.86%
2.86%
3.271%
3.271%
2.736%
2.736%
2.785%
2.785%
2.543%
2.543%
1.88%
1.88%
1.533%
1.533%
1.263%
1.263%
1.139%
1.139%
1.157%
1.157%
0.99%
0.99%
0.831%
0.831%
0.71%
0.71%
0.904%
0.904%
0.788%
0.788%
0.849%
0.849%
0.85%
0.85%
0.621%
0.621%
0.424%
0.424%
0.394%
0.394%
0.397%
0.397%
0.33%
0.33%
0.275%
0.275%
0.298%
0.298%
0.288%
0.288%
0.33%
0.33%
0.334%
0.334%
0.394%
0.394%
0.535%
0.535%
1.15%
1.15%
1.448%
1.448%
1.756%
1.756%
1.587%
1.587%
1.57%
1.57%
1.6%
1.6%
1.365%
1.365%
1.824%
1.824%
1.791%
1.791%
2.065%
2.065%
2.315%
2.315%
2.172%
2.172%
2.489%
2.489%
2.576%
2.576%
2.652%
2.652%
2.88%
2.88%
2.977%
2.977%
2.997%
2.997%
2.765%
2.765%
2.815%
2.815%
2.719%
2.719%
2.864%
2.864%
2.837%
2.837%
2.612%
2.612%
2.658%
2.658%
2.44%
2.434%
0.218%
2.434%
2.245%
2.245%
2.066%
2.066%
2.058%
2.058%
1.911%
1.911%
1.742%
1.742%
1.884%
1.884%
1.828%
1.828%
1.831%
1.831%
1.875%
1.875%
2.04%
1.95%
-0.165%
1.95%
1.88%
1.937%
0.07%
1.937%
1.992%
1.988%
-0.055%
1.988%
2.057%
2.057%
1.76%
1.76%
1.32%
1.303%
0.44%
1.303%
1.14%
1.129%
0.163%
1.129%
1.125%
1.125%
1.18%
1.18%
1.218%
1.218%
1.395%
1.395%
1.41%
1.41%
1.53%
1.335%
-0.12%
1.335%
1.52%
1.169%
-0.185%
1.169%
1.6%
1.496%
-0.431%
1.496%
1.47%
1.785%
0.026%
1.785%
1.67%
1.67%
1.54%
1.415%
0.13%
1.415%
1.467%
1.467%
1.463%
1.463%
1.625%
1.625%
1.71%
1.71%
1.56%
1.56%
1.38%