France EUR

France Legislative Election 1st Round

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
 
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:  
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The France Legislative Election 1st Round measures the political preferences and party support among the electorate for legislative seats in the National Assembly. It assesses voter turnout and the share of votes received by various political parties, which can impact the future policy direction and governance of the country.
Frequency
This election event occurs once every five years, with specific rounds scheduled as determined by the national electoral calendar; results are typically released on the same day of the election.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the outcomes of legislative elections closely, as they can significantly influence economic policies, regulatory frameworks, and market sentiment. The results affect the French stock market, currency (EUR), and investment decisions based on the anticipated stability and direction of the government.
What Is It Derived From?
The election results are derived from the tally of votes cast by registered voters across various constituencies in France, reflecting the democratic choice of the populace. The outcome is calculated based on the percentage of votes received by each political party, with methodologies including proportional representation and runoff systems for determining winners.
Description
In the first round of the legislative election, if no candidate achieves more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election occurs between the top candidates, typically held two weeks later. This structure evaluates the immediate political inclinations of voters and serves as an early indicator of potential shifts in legislative power.
Additional Notes
The France Legislative Election serves as a coincident economic measure, often perceived as a bellwether for broader political trends within the European Union. The results may also influence market expectations regarding fiscal policies, social programs, and economic reforms, which are vital for both France and EU member states.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected turnout and favorable results for pro-business parties: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected turnout or gains for opposition parties signaling instability: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Jun 30, 2024