China CNY

China Loan Prime Rate 1Y

Impact:
Medium

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3%
Forecast: 3%
Previous/Revision:
3.1%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 3%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) 1Y measures the interest rate at which banks lend to their most creditworthy customers, explicitly assessing the cost of borrowing for one year. This rate primarily focuses on credit conditions and the liquidity environment in China’s economy, reflecting broader aspects of economic activity, including consumption and investment levels.
Frequency
The LPR is published monthly, typically on the 20th of each month, and consists of both a preliminary estimate and a final figure, with the preliminary data being more timely but subject to adjustments.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the LPR as it serves as a benchmark for other lending rates and impacts monetary policy decisions. Changes in the LPR can influence market sentiment towards the Chinese yuan (CNY), domestic equities, and broader financial market conditions, as lower rates may stimulate growth, while higher rates could indicate tightening.
What Is It Derived From?
The LPR is derived from a survey of 18 banks in China, which report their lending rates to the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The rate is calculated using a weighted average of these rates, reflecting the cost of financing in the banking sector and adhering to the PBOC's guidelines for setting benchmark rates.
Description
The LPR is usually reported as a fixed annual percentage and plays a critical role in signaling the PBOC's monetary policy stance. Preliminary reports may show early estimates based on the banks' submissions, while final reports provide a refined figure, with both forms being significant for traders and analysts.
Additional Notes
The LPR serves as a leading indicator of economic activity, influencing borrowing costs and consumer spending. Its adjustments can provide insight into future economic conditions in China and its correlation with global markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of the Chinese economy with broader economic trends.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the CNY but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3%
3%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.15%
3.35%
-0.05%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.45%
3.45%
-0.1%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.3%
3.45%
0.15%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.4%
3.55%
0.05%
3.55%
3.55%
3.55%
3.55%
3.55%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.6%
3.7%
0.05%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.8%
3.8%
-0.1%
3.8%
3.85%
3.85%
-0.05%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.7%
3.85%
0.15%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
4.05%
4.05%
3.95%
4.05%
0.1%
4.05%
3.95%
4.15%
0.1%
4.15%
4.05%
4.15%
0.1%
4.15%
4.05%
4.15%
0.1%
4.15%
4.2%
4.2%
-0.05%
4.2%
4.05%
4.2%
0.15%
4.2%
4.15%
4.25%
0.05%