Canada CAD

Canada Ivey PMI s.a

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Ivey Business School

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-3.3

CAD

Actual:

47.9

Forecast: 51.2

Previous/Revision:

51.3

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures economic conditions in the manufacturing and service sectors of Canada. It focuses on various key areas, including new orders, inventory levels, supplier deliveries, and employment, serving as a leading indicator of economic activity; values above 50 suggest expansion, while values below indicate contraction.

Frequency

This index is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the following month, and is considered a preliminary estimate subject to potential revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Ivey PMI as it provides insights into the health of Canada's economy and influences market forecasts, impacting financial instruments like the Canadian dollar (CAD), equities, and interest rates. Stronger-than-expected PMI readings can be bullish for the CAD and stock markets, while weaker readings may lead to bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The Ivey PMI is derived from a survey conducted among purchasing managers from various sectors, including manufacturing and services, who provide data on their companies' purchasing activities. The index utilizes a diffusion index methodology, where responses are weighted to create a composite index representing overall economic activity.

Description

The Ivey PMI report presents a snapshot of ongoing economic trends in Canada, indicating the level of business activity and future economic outlook. It often serves as a coincident indicator reflecting current economic conditions and can highlight trends that influence broader economic policies and decisions.

Additional Notes

The Ivey PMI is seen as a coincident economic measure and is often compared with other indicators like the broader Canadian PMI and GDP growth rates. Its relationship with such metrics enhances its relevance as a determinant of economic trends within Canada.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 06, 2025	47.9	51.2	51.3	-3.3
Apr 08, 2025	51.3	53.2	55.3	-1.9
Mar 06, 2025	55.3	50.6	47.1	4.7
Feb 06, 2025	47.1	53	54.7	-5.9
Jan 07, 2025	54.7	55.4	52.3	-0.7
Dec 06, 2024	52.3	53.1	52	-0.8
Nov 06, 2024	52	54.2	53.1	-2.2
Oct 04, 2024	53.1	50.2	48.2	2.9
Sep 06, 2024	48.2	55.5	57.6	-7.3
Aug 07, 2024	57.6	60	62.5	-2.4
Jul 05, 2024	62.5	53	52	9.5
Jun 06, 2024	52	65	63	-13
May 07, 2024	63	58.1	57.5	4.9
Apr 05, 2024	57.5	54.2	53.9	3.3
Mar 06, 2024	53.9	56	56.5	-2.1
Feb 06, 2024	56.5	55	56.3	1.5
Jan 05, 2024	56.3	52.4	54.7	3.9
Dec 06, 2023	54.7	54.2	53.4	0.5
Nov 06, 2023	53.4	54	53.1	-0.6
Oct 05, 2023	53.1	50.8	53.5	2.3
Sep 07, 2023	53.5	49.2	48.6	4.3
Aug 04, 2023	48.6	52.7	50.2	-4.1
Jul 07, 2023	50.2	52.3	53.5	-2.1
Jun 06, 2023	53.5	57.2	56.8	-3.7
May 04, 2023	56.8	59	58.2	-2.2
Apr 06, 2023	58.2	56.1	51.6	2.1
Mar 06, 2023	51.6	55.9	60.1	-4.3
Feb 06, 2023	60.1	42.3	49.3	17.8
Jan 06, 2023	33.4	51	51.4	-17.6
Dec 06, 2022	51.4	49	50.1	2.4
Nov 04, 2022	50.1	57	59.5	-6.9
Oct 06, 2022	59.5	55	60.9	4.5
Sep 07, 2022	60.9	48.8	49.6	12.1
Aug 05, 2022	49.6	61	62.2	-11.4
Jul 07, 2022	62.2	64	72	-1.8
Jun 07, 2022	72	64	66.3	8
May 06, 2022	66.3	73.8	74.2	-7.5
Apr 06, 2022	74.2	60	60.6	14.2
Mar 04, 2022	60.6	52	50.7	8.6
Feb 04, 2022	50.7	50	45	0.7
Jan 07, 2022	45	61	61.2	-16
Dec 07, 2021	61.2	58.7	59.3	2.5
Nov 05, 2021	59.3	65	70.4	-5.7
Oct 07, 2021	70.4	64.2	66	6.2
Sep 08, 2021	66	56	56.4	10
Aug 06, 2021	56.4	70	71.9	-13.6
Jul 07, 2021	71.9	65	64.7	6.9
Jun 04, 2021	64.7	65	60.6	-0.3
May 07, 2021	60.6	67	72.9	-6.4
Apr 07, 2021	72.9	60.5	60	12.4
Mar 05, 2021	60	49	48.4	11
Feb 05, 2021	48.4	47	46.7	1.4
Jan 07, 2021	46.7	53.2	52.7	-6.5
Dec 07, 2020	52.7	54.7	54.5	-2
Nov 06, 2020	54.5	51.5	54.3	3
Oct 07, 2020	54.3	68	67.8	-13.7
Sep 04, 2020	67.8	68.7	68.5	-0.9
Aug 07, 2020	68.5	57.5	58.2	11
Jul 07, 2020	58.2	43	39.1	15.2
Jun 05, 2020	39.1	25	22.8	14.1
May 07, 2020	22.8	25	26	-2.2
Apr 07, 2020	26	41	54.1	-15
Mar 06, 2020	54.1	53.6	57.3	0.5
Feb 07, 2020	57.3	53.3	51.9	4
Jan 07, 2020	51.9	53.8	60	-1.9
Dec 05, 2019	60	53.8	48.2	6.2
Nov 06, 2019	48.2	0.8	48.7	47.4
Oct 04, 2019	48.7	54.3	60.6	-5.6
Sep 06, 2019	60.6	53	54.2	7.6
Aug 07, 2019	54.2	53	52.4	1.2
Jul 05, 2019	52.4	55	55.9	-2.6
Jun 06, 2019	55.9	56.7	55.9	-0.8
May 07, 2019	55.9	53	54.3	2.9
Apr 04, 2019	54.3	51.1	50.6	3.2
Mar 06, 2019	50.6	55.1	54.7	-4.5
Feb 06, 2019	54.7	56	59.7	-1.3
Jan 07, 2019	59.7	56.8	57.2	2.9
Dec 06, 2018	57.2	60.3	61.8	-3.1
Nov 07, 2018	61.8	50.9	50.4	10.9
Oct 04, 2018	50.4	62.3	61.9	-11.9
Sep 07, 2018	61.9	61.4	61.8	0.5
Aug 07, 2018	61.8	64.2	63.1	-2.4
Jul 06, 2018	63.1	63.2	62.5	-0.1
Jun 06, 2018	62.5	69.7	71.5	-7.2
May 04, 2018	71.5	60.2	59.8	11.3
Apr 06, 2018	59.8	60.2	59.6	-0.4
Mar 06, 2018	59.6	56.3	55.2	3.3
Feb 06, 2018	55.2	61	60.4	-5.8
Jan 05, 2018	60.4	62.2	63	-1.8
Dec 07, 2017	63	62.7	63.8	0.3
Nov 06, 2017	63.8	60.2	59.6	3.6
Oct 06, 2017	59.6	57.2	56.3	2.4
Sep 07, 2017	56.3	61.3	60	-5
Aug 04, 2017	60	59.2	61.6	0.8
Jul 07, 2017	61.6	61	53.8	0.6
Jun 06, 2017	53.8	62	62.4	-8.2
May 05, 2017	62.4	62.3	61.1	0.1
Apr 07, 2017	61.1	56.3	55	4.8
Mar 07, 2017	55	58.9	57.2	-3.9
Feb 07, 2017	57.2	58.3	60.8	-1.1
Jan 06, 2017	60.8	56.8	56.8	4
Dec 06, 2016	56.8	59.9	59.7	-3.1
Nov 04, 2016	59.7	56.32	58.4	3.38
Oct 07, 2016	58.4	54.11	52.3	4.29
Sep 07, 2016	52.3	56.3	57	-4
Aug 05, 2016	57	50.9	51.7	6.1
Jul 07, 2016	51.7	51	49.4	0.7
Jun 07, 2016	49.4	51.5	53.1	-2.1
May 06, 2016	53.1	52.5	50.1	0.6
Apr 06, 2016	50.1	55	53.4	-4.9
Mar 04, 2016	53.4	59	66	-5.6
Feb 05, 2016	66	50	49.9	16
Jan 07, 2016	49.9	56.7	63.6	-6.8
Dec 04, 2015	63.6	55.3	53.1	8.3
Nov 05, 2015	53.1	54	53.7	-0.9
Oct 06, 2015	53.7	54	58	-0.3
Sep 04, 2015	58	52	52.9	6
Aug 07, 2015	52.9	52	55.9	0.9
Jul 06, 2015	55.9	54	62.3	1.9
Jun 04, 2015	62.3	55.5	58.2	6.8
May 06, 2015	58.2	49.2	47.9	9