United States USD

United States ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-5.5

Actual:

59.5

Forecast: 65

Previous/Revision:

65.6

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index measures the prices that non-manufacturing producers pay for goods and services, providing insights into inflationary pressures within the service sector. This indicator focuses on the scrutiny of price changes that can affect cost structures, including labor, materials, and operational inputs, serving as a key signal for inflation trends at a national level.

Frequency

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index is released monthly, with the data typically published on the third business day of the following month after the survey period. This report provides preliminary estimates that are subject to revision as more data becomes available.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index closely due to its implications for inflation and monetary policy, as higher prices can lead to increased interest rates which influence currency and stock valuations. Stronger-than-expected results are bullish for the U.S. dollar and equities while weaker readings may raise concerns about economic growth and could be bearish for those assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of purchasing and supply executives in the non-manufacturing sectors, which includes services like retail, finance, and healthcare; responses are collected to assess changes in prices paid. The methodology involves calculations based on diffusion indices that track the percentage of respondents reporting higher versus lower prices, creating a weighted average that reflects overall pricing trends.

Description

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index compares prices to those of the previous month, capturing short-term shifts in the purchasing power within the service sector. This Month-over-Month (MoM) reporting method is particularly relevant as it provides timely insights into inflationary pressures, allowing traders to gauge immediate economic conditions and potential monetary policy responses.

Additional Notes

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index serves as a leading indicator of inflation trends, which can influence both consumer spending and broader economic performance. It is often analyzed alongside other reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index, to provide a more comprehensive view of inflation within the economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 05, 2023	59.5	65	65.6	-5.5
Mar 03, 2023	65.6	67	67.8	-1.4
Feb 03, 2023	67.8	66	68.1	1.8
Jan 06, 2023	67.6	68	70	-0.4
Dec 05, 2022	70	70.2	70.7	-0.2
Nov 03, 2022	70.7	68	68.7	2.7
Oct 05, 2022	68.7	70	71.5	-1.3
Sep 06, 2022	71.5	65	72.3	6.5
Aug 03, 2022	72.3	77	80.1	-4.7
Jul 06, 2022	80.1	82	82.1	-1.9
Jun 03, 2022	82.1	85	84.6	-2.9
May 04, 2022	84.6	84.2	83.8	0.4
Apr 05, 2022	83.8	83.4	83.1	0.4
Mar 03, 2022	83.1	83	82.3	0.1
Feb 03, 2022	82.3	82	83.9	0.3
Jan 06, 2022	82.5	81	82.3	1.5
Dec 03, 2021	82.3	83	82.9	-0.7
Nov 03, 2021	82.9	77.8	77.5	5.1
Oct 05, 2021	77.5	74.9	75.4	2.6
Sep 03, 2021	75.4		82.3
Aug 04, 2021	82.3		79.5
Jul 06, 2021	79.5	81	80.6	-1.5
Jun 03, 2021	80.6	77	76.8	3.6
May 05, 2021	76.8	75	74	1.8
Apr 05, 2021	74	73	71.8	1
Mar 03, 2021	71.8	59	64.2	12.8
Feb 03, 2021	64.2	61	64.4	3.2
Jan 07, 2021	64.8	62.2	66.1	2.6
Dec 03, 2020	66.1	63	63.9	3.1
Nov 04, 2020	63.9	58	59	5.9
Oct 05, 2020	59	65	64.2	-6
Sep 03, 2020	64.2	55	57.6	9.2
Aug 05, 2020	57.6	57.9	62.4	-0.3
Jul 06, 2020	62.4	52.9	55.6	9.5
Jun 03, 2020	55.6	42	55.1	13.6
May 05, 2020	55.1		50
Apr 03, 2020	50		50.8
Mar 04, 2020	50.8	55.5	55.5	-4.7
Feb 05, 2020	55.5	57.2	59.3	-1.7
Jan 07, 2020	58.5	57	58.5	1.5
Dec 04, 2019	58.5	55.6	56.6	2.9
Nov 05, 2019	56.6	59.1	60	-2.5
Oct 03, 2019	60	56.4	58.2	3.6
Sep 05, 2019	58.2	56	56.5	2.2
Aug 05, 2019	56.5	58	58.9	-1.5
Jul 03, 2019	58.9	55.1	55.4	3.8
Jun 05, 2019	55.4	52.9	55.7	2.5
May 03, 2019	55.7	55.7	58.7
Apr 03, 2019	58.7		54.4
Mar 05, 2019	54.4		59.4
Feb 05, 2019	59.4		58
Jan 07, 2019	57.6		64.3
Dec 06, 2018	64.3		61.7
Nov 05, 2018	61.7		64.2
Oct 03, 2018	64.2		62.8
Sep 06, 2018	62.8		63.4
Aug 03, 2018	63.4		60.7
Jul 05, 2018	60.7		64.3
Jun 05, 2018	64.3		61.8
May 03, 2018	61.8		61.5
Apr 04, 2018	61.5		61
Mar 05, 2018	61		61.9
Feb 05, 2018	61.9		59.9
Jan 05, 2018	60.8		60.7
Dec 05, 2017	60.7		62.7
Nov 03, 2017	62.7		66.3
Oct 04, 2017	66.3		57.9
Sep 06, 2017	57.9		55.7
Aug 03, 2017	55.7		52.1
Jul 06, 2017	52.1		49.2
Jun 05, 2017	49.2		57.6
May 03, 2017	57.6		53.5
Apr 05, 2017	53.5		57.7
Mar 03, 2017	57.7		59
Feb 03, 2017	59		56.1
Jan 05, 2017	57		56.3
Dec 05, 2016	56.3		56.6
Nov 03, 2016	56.6		54
Oct 05, 2016	54		51.8
Sep 06, 2016	51.8		51.9
Aug 03, 2016	51.9		55.5
Jul 06, 2016	55.5		55.6
Jun 03, 2016	55.6		53.4
May 04, 2016	53.4		49.1
Apr 05, 2016	49.1		45.5
Mar 03, 2016	45.5		46.4
Feb 03, 2016	46.4		51
Jan 06, 2016	49.7		50.3
Dec 03, 2015	50.3		49.1
Nov 04, 2015	49.1		48.4
Oct 05, 2015	48.4		50.8
Sep 03, 2015	50.8		53.7
Aug 05, 2015	53.7		53
Jul 06, 2015	53		55.9
Jun 03, 2015	55.9		50.1
May 05, 2015	50.1		52.4