Australia AUD

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.3%
Actual:
4.1%
Forecast: 3.8%
Previous/Revision:
4.2%
Period: May

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 3.5%
Period: Jun
What Does It Measure?
The Consumer Inflation Expectations in Australia measures the public's outlook on future inflation rates, explicitly assessing individuals' expectations for price changes over a set horizon, typically the next 12 months. It focuses on key components of consumer sentiment regarding purchasing power, influencing perceptions of economic stability and financial planning.
Frequency
This indicator is released quarterly, usually in the first week of the following quarter, and is considered a preliminary estimate that may be revised when final figures become available.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor Consumer Inflation Expectations closely as they provide insight into future inflation trends, which can significantly impact monetary policy decisions and financial markets. Higher or rising expectations can be bullish for interest rates and the Australian dollar (AUD), while lower expectations may signal economic weakness, affecting equities and investment sentiment.
What Is It Derived From?
Consumer Inflation Expectations are derived from a survey of households conducted by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which gathers opinions on expected price changes. The survey captures respondents' forecasts, using a weighted average method to aggregate the results from a diverse demographic representing the general population.
Description
The preliminary report reflects early estimates based on sampling, while the finalized data offers a confirmed view of consumer expectations. This indicator uses a Year-over-Year (YoY) comparison to evaluate expected inflation, facilitating an understanding of long-term trends rather than short-term volatility.
Additional Notes
Consumer Inflation Expectations are considered a leading indicator as they typically precede actual inflation trends and influence consumer behavior and spending. The data is relevant not only to domestic economic conditions but also provides insight into how Australia's inflationary outlook compares to other nations struggling with similar issues.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
4.1%
3.8%
4.2%
0.3%
4.2%
3.6%
3.6%
0.6%
3.6%
4.4%
4.6%
-0.8%
4.6%
3.8%
4%
0.8%
4%
4.2%
4.2%
3.5%
3.8%
0.7%
3.8%
3.8%
4%
4%
4.3%
4.4%
-0.3%
4.4%
4.1%
4.5%
0.3%
4.5%
4.2%
4.3%
0.3%
4.3%
4.5%
4.4%
-0.2%
4.4%
4.3%
4.1%
0.1%
4.1%
4.5%
4.6%
-0.4%
4.6%
4.1%
4.3%
0.5%
4.3%
4.4%
4.5%
-0.1%
4.5%
4.3%
4.5%
0.2%
4.5%
4.2%
4.5%
0.3%
4.5%
4.5%
4.9%
4.9%
4.1%
4.8%
0.8%
4.8%
4.4%
4.6%
0.4%
4.6%
4.7%
4.9%
-0.1%
4.9%
5.2%
5.2%
5.1%
5.2%
0.1%
5.2%
4.8%
5%
0.4%
5%
5%
4.6%
4.6%
4.8%
5%
-0.2%
5%
4.9%
5.1%
0.1%
5.1%
5.7%
5.6%
-0.6%
5.6%
4.9%
5.2%
0.7%
5.2%
6.2%
6%
-1%
6%
5.1%
5.4%
0.9%
5.4%
5.2%
5.4%
0.2%
5.4%
5.8%
5.9%
-0.4%
5.9%
6.2%
6.3%
-0.3%
6.3%
6.8%
6.7%
-0.5%
6.7%
5%
5%
1.7%
5%
5.2%
5.2%
5%
4.9%
0.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.6%
0.2%
4.6%
4.6%
4.4%
4.4%
4.9%
4.8%
-0.5%
4.8%
4.7%
4.6%
0.1%
4.6%
3.7%
3.6%
0.9%
3.6%
4.5%
4.4%
-0.9%
4.4%
3.2%
3.3%
1.2%
3.3%
3.6%
3.7%
-0.3%
3.7%
4.5%
4.4%
-0.8%
4.4%
3.8%
3.5%
0.6%
3.5%
3.7%
3.2%
-0.2%
3.2%
4.2%
4.1%
-1%
4.1%
3.8%
3.7%
0.3%
3.7%
3.4%
3.4%
0.3%
3.4%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.2%
3.5%
0.3%
3.5%
3.2%
3.4%
0.3%
3.4%
3.1%
3.1%
0.3%
3.1%
3.3%
3.3%
-0.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.2%
-0.1%
3.2%
3.5%
3.3%
-0.3%
3.3%
4.2%
3.4%
-0.9%
3.4%
4%
4.6%
-0.6%
4.6%
4.1%
4%
0.5%
4%
4.6%
4%
-0.6%
4%
4.3%
4.7%
-0.3%
4.7%
3.8%
4%
0.9%
4%
3.5%
4%
0.5%
4%
3.2%
3.6%
0.8%
3.6%
3.2%
3.1%
0.4%
3.1%
3.5%
3.5%
-0.4%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
0.2%
3.2%
3.5%
3.3%
-0.3%
3.3%
3.6%
3.3%
-0.3%
3.3%
4%
3.9%
-0.7%
3.9%
4%
4.1%
-0.1%
4.1%
4%
3.7%
0.1%
3.7%
3.4%
3.5%
0.3%
3.5%
3.9%
4%
-0.4%
4%
3.5%
3.6%
0.5%
3.6%
3.9%
4%
-0.3%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3.9%
3.9%
4.2%
4.2%
-0.3%
4.2%
3.6%
3.7%
0.6%
3.7%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
3.7%
3.7%
-0.1%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
0.1%
3.6%
3.7%
3.7%
-0.1%
3.7%
4.03%
3.7%
-0.33%
3.7%
4%
3.7%
-0.3%
3.7%
4.3%
4.3%
-0.6%
4.3%
4%
3.8%
0.3%
3.8%
4.1%
4.2%
-0.3%
4.2%
4.3%
4.4%
-0.1%
4.4%
3.7%
3.6%
0.7%
3.6%
3.98%
4%
-0.38%
4%
4%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4%
4%
3.94%
4.1%
0.06%