United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.3%
Actual:
4.5%
Forecast: 4.2%
Previous/Revision:
3.2%
Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 4.7%
Period: May
What Does It Measure?
The Retail Price Index (RPI) measures the rate of inflation in the United Kingdom by tracking the price change over time of a basket of goods and services purchased by households. It primarily focuses on consumer price changes, assessing key areas such as housing costs, transportation, and food prices, with key indicators including the overall RPI percentage change year-over-year.
Frequency
The RPI is published monthly, with results released typically in the second week of each month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the RPI as it impacts inflation expectations, influencing the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions, which in turn affect currency valuations and bond yields. A higher-than-expected RPI can signal rising inflation, often leading to bullish sentiment for GBP and bearish trends in equities due to potential interest rate hikes.
What Is It Derived From?
The RPI is derived from surveys that collect price data from a representative sample of retail outlets and service providers across the UK. This data is then weighted based on consumer expenditure patterns, with the index reflecting the average change in prices experienced by consumers.
Description
The RPI serves as a critical inflation measure that reflects changes in consumer purchasing power. It often serves as a benchmark for wage negotiations and pricing policies and is viewed as a coincident indicator, providing insights into current economic conditions without much delay.
Additional Notes
The RPI is compared with other inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with RPI including housing costs, making it a more comprehensive measure for specific sectors. It is considered a lagging indicator in that it reflects changes after they have occurred in the economy, impacting both policy adjustments and consumer behavior.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates due to inflation concerns is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
4.5%
4.2%
3.2%
0.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.4%
3.4%
3.6%
3.6%
-0.2%
3.6%
3.7%
3.5%
-0.1%
3.5%
3.8%
3.6%
-0.3%
3.6%
3.7%
3.4%
-0.1%
3.4%
3.4%
2.7%
2.7%
3.1%
3.5%
-0.4%
3.5%
3.4%
3.6%
0.1%
3.6%
3.3%
2.9%
0.3%
2.9%
2.9%
3%
3%
3.1%
3.3%
-0.1%
3.3%
3.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
4.5%
0.1%
4.5%
4.5%
4.9%
4.9%
5.1%
5.2%
-0.2%
5.2%
5.1%
5.3%
0.1%
5.3%
5.7%
6.1%
-0.4%
6.1%
6.4%
8.9%
-0.3%
8.9%
8.9%
9.1%
9.1%
9.3%
9%
-0.2%
9%
9%
10.7%
10.7%
10.9%
11.3%
-0.2%
11.3%
11.2%
11.4%
0.1%
11.4%
11.1%
13.5%
0.3%
13.5%
13.3%
13.8%
0.2%
13.8%
13.3%
13.4%
0.5%
13.4%
13.2%
13.4%
0.2%
13.4%
13.6%
14%
-0.2%
14%
13.9%
14.2%
0.1%
14.2%
13.5%
12.6%
0.7%
12.6%
12.3%
12.3%
0.3%
12.3%
12.4%
12.3%
-0.1%
12.3%
12%
11.8%
0.3%
11.8%
11.8%
11.7%
11.7%
11.4%
11.1%
0.3%
11.1%
11.1%
9%
9%
8.8%
8.2%
0.2%
8.2%
8.2%
7.8%
7.8%
7.5%
7.5%
0.3%
7.5%
7.1%
7.1%
0.4%
7.1%
6.7%
6%
0.4%
6%
5.7%
4.9%
0.3%
4.9%
4.7%
4.8%
0.2%
4.8%
4.7%
3.8%
0.1%
3.8%
3.6%
3.9%
0.2%
3.9%
3.4%
3.3%
0.5%
3.3%
3.3%
2.9%
2.9%
2.4%
1.5%
0.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.6%
1.4%
-0.2%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
0.9%
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
-0.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.2%
0.5%
-0.1%
0.5%
0.6%
1.6%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.2%
1.1%
0.4%
1.1%
1%
1%
0.1%
1%
1.2%
1.5%
-0.2%
1.5%
1.6%
2.6%
-0.1%
2.6%
2.3%
2.5%
0.3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.2%
0.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
-0.1%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
0.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.4%
-0.1%
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
-0.2%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3%
3%
2.9%
3%
0.1%
3%
2.8%
2.4%
0.2%