Canada CAD

Canada GDP Implicit Price QoQ

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Statistics Canada

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.6%

Forecast: 0.6%

Previous/Revision:

0.9%

Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 130.1%

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The Canada GDP Implicit Price Index quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) measures the changes in prices of goods and services produced in Canada, adjusted for seasonality, allowing analysts to infer inflation effects on the economy's output. This indicator focuses on the overall price levels of production, assessing how much the real GDP value shifts due to price changes rather than output changes.

Frequency

The GDP Implicit Price Index is typically released on a quarterly basis, with final figures published about two months following the end of each quarter, following revisions based on comprehensive data collection.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the GDP Implicit Price Index due to its implications for inflation trends and economic activity, which can influence monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Canada. Higher-than-expected readings may indicate inflationary pressures, leading to potential interest rate hikes, impacting currencies like the CAD, as well as equities and bonds.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is calculated using a comprehensive assessment of the national accounts, incorporating GDP estimates alongside adjustments from various data sources that reflect changes in consumer prices and production costs. This includes survey data from businesses and sectors contributing to Canada’s output, ensuring a robust view of price alterations across the economy.

Description

The GDP Implicit Price Index is derived from actual GDP figures, reflecting the overall price level changes relative to the previous quarter's output, and is essential for understanding inflation's impact on economic growth. It serves primarily as a coincident indicator, providing insights into current economic conditions by evaluating real GDP against price fluctuations, thus indicating whether growth is genuine or merely a reflection of inflation.

Additional Notes

The GDP Implicit Price Index serves as a crucial measure in assessing inflation trends, thereby providing context for broader economic movements and policies. It is important to compare this indicator with other inflation measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to gauge differing inflationary pressures within the economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower inflation expectations or economic support is usually good for the CAD but bad for Stocks due to the potential for decreased investment returns in a lower growth environment.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 30, 2025	0.6%	0.6%	0.9%
Feb 28, 2025	0.9%	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%
Nov 29, 2024	0.6%	1%	1.1%	-0.4%
Aug 30, 2024	1.1%	-0.1%	-0.3%	1.2%
May 31, 2024	-0.3%		1.5%
Feb 29, 2024	1.4%	1.3%	1.7%	0.1%
Nov 30, 2023	1.8%	0.5%	0.4%	1.3%
Sep 01, 2023	0.7%	1.5%	0.2%	-0.8%
May 31, 2023	0.2%	1.8%	-0.7%	-1.6%
Feb 28, 2023	-0.7%	-0.8%	-1.2%	0.1%
Nov 29, 2022	-1.4%	1.2%	3.2%	-2.6%
Aug 31, 2022	3.3%	3.1%	3%	0.2%
May 31, 2022	2.9%	0.9%	1.9%	2%
Mar 01, 2022	1.6%		1.2%
Nov 30, 2021	0.8%	3%	2.3%	-2.2%
Aug 31, 2021	2.2%		3%
Jun 01, 2021	2.9%	0.4%	1.3%	2.5%
Mar 02, 2021	1.1%		2.4%
Dec 01, 2020	2.6%		-1.2%
Aug 28, 2020	-1.2%		-0.5%
May 29, 2020	0.5%		0.8%
Feb 28, 2020	1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.7%
Nov 29, 2019	0.1%	0.7%	1.1%	-0.6%
Aug 30, 2019	1.1%		1.2%
May 31, 2019	1.1%		-0.8%
Mar 01, 2019	-0.8%		0.6%
Nov 30, 2018	0.7%		0.4%
Aug 30, 2018	0.5%		0.4%
May 31, 2018	0.3%		1%
Mar 02, 2018	1.2%		0%
Dec 01, 2017	0%		-0.1%
Aug 31, 2017	-0.3%		1%
May 31, 2017	1%		1.2%
Mar 02, 2017	1.1%		0.6%
Nov 30, 2016	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
Aug 31, 2016	0.4%		-0.4%