Italy EUR

Italy CPI Prel

Impact:
Low
Source: National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.5
Actual:
120
Forecast: 119.5
Previous/Revision:
119.7
Period: Jan

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Feb
What Does It Measure?
The Italy Consumer Price Index (CPI) Preliminarily measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, focusing primarily on inflation. Key indicators include food prices, energy costs, and various other consumer expenditures, with a reading above 50 typically indicating inflationary expansion and below indicating contraction, making it a national indicator.
Frequency
The Italy CPI is released monthly, providing preliminary estimates typically on the last day of the month following the reporting period.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders carefully monitor the Italy CPI as it directly influences perceptions of inflation, impacting monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the value of the Euro (EUR). Higher-than-expected CPI readings can be bullish for the EUR and domestic equities, while weaker results may signal bearish sentiment in financial markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The CPI is derived from a comprehensive survey that gathers price information from a representative sample of goods and services that consumers typically purchase. It utilizes data collection methodologies, including price indexing and weighting based on consumer expenditure patterns to accurately reflect current spending habits.
Description
The preliminary CPI is based on early estimates and is published for immediate assessment of inflation trends, while final figures are released later for more accurate measurement. The month-over-month (MoM) comparisons are crucial for understanding short-term price movements and potential impacts on consumer behavior; however, year-over-year (YoY) reporting is emphasized due to its ability to account for seasonal fluctuations and provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends.
Additional Notes
The Italy CPI serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting immediate consumer price changes and influencing future economic conditions. It is frequently compared to similar indicators across the Eurozone to gauge relative inflationary pressures and broader economic health.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the EUR but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Feb 01, 2024
120
 119.5
119.7
 0.5
Jan 05, 2024
119.7
 119.7
119.5
Nov 30, 2023
119.6
 120.2
120.1
 -0.6
Oct 31, 2023
120.2
 120.7
120.3
 -0.5
Sep 29, 2023
120.3
 120.3
120.1
Aug 31, 2023
120.2
119.7
Jul 31, 2023
119.8
 119.9
119.7
 -0.1
Jun 28, 2023
119.7
 120
119.7
 -0.3
May 31, 2023
119.7
 119.7
119.3
May 02, 2023
119.4
 118.8
118.8
 0.6
Mar 31, 2023
118.9
 119.7
119.3
 -0.8
Mar 02, 2023
119.4
 119.3
119.1
 0.1
Feb 01, 2023
119.2
 119.6
119
 -0.4
Jan 05, 2023
119
 119
118.7
Nov 30, 2022
118.7
 118.4
118.1
 0.3
Oct 28, 2022
118.2
114.2