United States USD

United States Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.2%
Actual:
3.5%
Forecast: 3.3%
Previous/Revision:
2.6%
Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Q2
What Does It Measure?
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services consumed by individuals in the United States, excluding food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. It primarily focuses on inflation and consumer spending, making it a key indicator for understanding economic stability, with values above 0.2% typically indicating inflationary pressures, while values below suggest deflationary trends; it serves as a national indicator.
Frequency
The Core PCE Prices report is released on a monthly basis, typically approximately 30 days after the month ends, and can include preliminary estimates that are subject to revision.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor Core PCE Prices because it influences monetary policy and is a critical determinant for interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, affecting asset prices across various markets. Higher-than-expected Core PCE values can lead to a stronger US dollar and bullish trends in equities, while weaker figures may introduce bearish sentiment in financial markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The Core PCE Price Index is derived from a comprehensive survey conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which collects data on consumer spending patterns through various channels, using a basket of goods and services weighted according to consumption trends. This data is then processed using specific pricing methodologies focused on creating a statistically accurate reflection of consumer price movements.
Description
The Core PCE Prices data distinguishes itself from other inflation indicators by focusing on a broader range of discretionary spending while excluding volatile food and energy components to mitigate short-term fluctuations. The report typically includes both preliminary and final figures, where the preliminary data represents early estimates that are likely to undergo revisions, whereas the final data provides a more accurate and confirmed measure of inflation trends, thereby impacting economic forecasts.
Additional Notes
The Core PCE Price Index is regarded as a coincident economic measure, closely reflecting current economic conditions and consumer behavior. It is integral in the assessment of inflation pressures within the US economy and is often compared to other inflation indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for a more comprehensive view of inflationary trends nationally and globally.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3.5%
3.3%
2.6%
0.2%
2.5%
2.5%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.8%
0.1%
2.9%
2.7%
3.7%
0.2%
3.7%
3.4%
2%
0.3%
2%
2%
2%
2.4%
2.5%
3.7%
-0.1%
3.8%
4%
4.9%
-0.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.4%
0.2%
3.9%
4%
4.7%
-0.1%
4.5%
4.5%
4.7%
4.4%
4.5%
5.2%
-0.1%
5.2%
5.4%
5%
-0.2%
4.9%
4.9%
4.6%
4.5%
4.5%
6.1%
6.1%
5.9%
2.7%
0.2%
2.3%
2.4%
1.3%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.5%
3.4%
-0.1%
3.5%
4%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-1.1%
1%
1.6%
-2.1%
1.8%
1.4%
1.3%
0.4%
1.3%
1.7%
2.1%
-0.4%
2.2%
2.1%
1.9%
0.1%
1.8%
2%
1.1%
-0.2%
1.3%
1.6%
1.8%
-0.3%
1.6%
1.8%
2.1%
-0.2%
2%
2.2%
2.2%
-0.2%
2.5%
2.4%
1.9%
0.1%
1.9%
1.6%
1.3%
0.3%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
1.8%
0.1%
2%
2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.7%
1.7%
-0.4%
1.7%
1.6%
1.8%
0.1%
1.7%
1.7%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.3%
0.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.8%
1.6%
1%
0.2%