United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance Non-EU

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

£1.67B

GBP

Actual:

£-6.83B

Forecast: £-8.5B

Previous/Revision:

£-8.85B

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Apr

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance Non-EU measures the difference between the value of goods exported from the UK to non-European Union countries and the value of goods imported from these nations. Its primary focus is on trade performance outside the EU, assessing key areas such as the competitiveness of UK exports and reliance on foreign goods, with key indicators typically involving a surplus or deficit in trade balance.

Frequency

This indicator is released on a monthly basis, typically two to four weeks after the end of the reporting month, and it can be subject to revision as more accurate data becomes available.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the Goods Trade Balance Non-EU because it can significantly influence currency values and stock prices, with a surplus often seen as a positive sign for the strength of the UK economy and the pound, while a deficit may have negative implications. The indicator serves as a timely measure for understanding the UK's trade dynamics and its potential impact on broader economic forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The Goods Trade Balance Non-EU is derived from customs data collected by the UK’s Office for National Statistics, which includes the reported values of goods traded with non-EU countries as well as data from businesses involved in international trade. This information is compiled through surveys and customs declarations submitted by exporters and importers.

Description

Preliminary reports of the Goods Trade Balance Non-EU reflect early estimates based on available data, while final reports provide a more accurate measure after recalculating or adjusting the data for errors or omissions. Monthly reporting, which captures short-term fluctuations in trade patterns, is vital for traders to analyze trends, seasonal effects, and shifts in trade relationships.

Additional Notes

This indicator is often viewed as a coincident measure, reflecting current trade activities and economic health. It is relevant in the context of broader trade discussions and can indicate shifts in global trade patterns and the UK's economic partnerships outside the EU.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	£-6.83B	£-8.5B	£-8.85B	£1.67B
Apr 11, 2025	£-8.58B	£-6.7B	£-7.37B	£-1.88B
Mar 28, 2025	£-7.07B	£-8B	£-8.04B	£0.93B
Feb 13, 2025	£-6.1B	£-7.6B	£-7.19B	£1.5B
Jan 16, 2025	£-7.72B	£-6.8B	£-7.65B	£-0.92B
Dec 13, 2024	£-7.28B	£-5.1B	£-5.31B	£-2.18B
Nov 15, 2024	£-5.31B	£-5B	£-4.85B	£-0.31B
Oct 11, 2024	£-4.95B	£-7.45B	£-6.85B	£2.5B
Sep 11, 2024	£-7.5B	£-6.8B	£-7.46B	£-0.7B
Aug 15, 2024	£-7.46B	£-6.05B	£-7.65B	£-1.41B
Jul 11, 2024	£-6.86B	£-5.1B	£-6.97B	£-1.76B
Jun 12, 2024	£-7.29B	£-3.3B	£-3.81B	£-3.99B
May 10, 2024	£-3.81B	£-2.7B	£-2.78B	£-1.11B
Apr 12, 2024	£-2.9B	£-3.7B	£-3.34B	£0.8B
Mar 13, 2024	£-3.421B	£-3.1B	£-3.319B	£-0.321B
Feb 15, 2024	£-3.319B	£-3.1B	£-3.747B	£-0.219B
Jan 12, 2024	£-2.838B	£-4.2B	£-3.919B	£1.362B
Dec 13, 2023	£-4.828B	£-4.5B	£-4.45B	£-0.328B
Nov 10, 2023	£-4.45B	£-4.2B	£-4.831B	£-0.25B
Oct 12, 2023	£-4.902B	£-2.5B	£-2.653B	£-2.402B
Sep 13, 2023	£-2.361B	£-2.3B	£-2.772B	£-0.061B
Aug 11, 2023	£-2.772B	£-6.39B	£-6.615B	£3.618B
Jul 13, 2023	£-6.757B	£-6.45B	£-4.635B	£-0.307B
Jun 14, 2023	£-5.035B	£-6.51B	£-5.458B	£1.475B
May 12, 2023	£-5.458B	£-7.7B	£-5.794B	£2.242B
Apr 13, 2023	£-6.519B	£-7.4B	£-6.574B	£0.881B
Mar 10, 2023	£-7.808B	£-6.6B	£-7.484B	£-1.208B
Feb 10, 2023	£-7.484B	£-8.1B	£-3.493B	£0.616B
Jan 13, 2023	£-4.666B	£-5.3B	£-2.999B	£0.634B
Dec 12, 2022	£-4.823B	£-8.7B	£-8.551B	£3.877B
Nov 11, 2022	£-8.551B	£-10.6B	£-9.248B	£2.049B
Oct 12, 2022	£-11.079B	£-10.9B	£-9.1B	£-0.179B
Sep 12, 2022	£-10.194B	£-12.9B	£-12.29B	£2.706B
Aug 12, 2022	£-12.29B	£-9.9B	£-9.603B	£-2.39B
Jul 13, 2022	£-10.367B	£-12.2B	£-11.408B	£1.833B
Jun 13, 2022	£-10.988B	£-14.1B	£-13.804B	£3.112B
May 12, 2022	£-13.8B	£-12.5B	£-13.142B	£-1.3B
Apr 11, 2022	£-12.138B	£-9.8B	£-11.639B	£-2.338B
Mar 11, 2022	£-13.65B	£-7.5B	£-7.876B	£-6.15B
Feb 11, 2022	£-7.876B	£-6B	£-7.23B	£-1.876B
Jan 14, 2022	£-5.67B	£-10.2B	£-6.83B	£4.53B
Dec 10, 2021	£-8.62B	£-8.9B	£-9.1B	£0.28B
Nov 11, 2021	£-9.103B	£-7.8B	£-8.395B	£-1.303B
Oct 13, 2021	£-8.4B		£-8.1B