United States USD

United States Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ

Impact:
Medium

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.3%
| USD
Actual:
0.7%
Forecast: 1%
Previous/Revision:
1.2%
Period: Q2

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Q3
What Does It Measure?
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the growth of compensation costs for workers, explicitly assessing wage and benefit changes in the United States. It concentrates on identifying trends in labor costs, which are critical for evaluating inflationary pressures and the overall health of the labor market.
Frequency
The ECI is released quarterly, with data typically published in the last week of the month following the end of the quarter. The release includes both preliminary estimates and revisions to past data.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the ECI as it influences expectations regarding inflation and monetary policy, particularly the actions of the Federal Reserve. Higher-than-expected ECI readings may lead to bullish sentiment for currencies and equities, while lower readings could signal economic weakness, potentially leading to bearish outcomes.
What Is It Derived From?
The ECI is derived from a comprehensive survey of employers, focusing on businesses across various sectors and sizes. The data collection involves detailed compensation questionnaires that capture wage changes and benefit costs, and the resulting index is calculated using a stratified sample-based approach to ensure accurate representation.
Description
The ECI is published as a quarterly report, providing both preliminary and final data. Preliminary figures offer early insights into wage trends while final reports present refined statistics, typically prompting market reactions as traders recalibrate their expectations based on the most accurate data.
Additional Notes
The ECI is regarded as a lagging indicator, reflecting past compensation trends and the historical behavior of labor costs. It serves as a vital component of broader economic indicators, helping analysts understand inflationary pressures in the context of other reports, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the Employment Cost Index increases more than forecasted: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. If the index rises less than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
0.7%
1%
1.2%
-0.3%
1.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.8%
0.1%
0.8%
0.8%
1%
1%
1%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
-0.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.9%
0.2%
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
-0.2%
1.2%
0.7%
1%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1%
1%
1.1%
1.2%
-0.1%
1.2%
1.6%
1.8%
-0.4%
1.8%
1.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.9%
1%
0.9%
-0.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
-0.1%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
-0.1%
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%