United States USD

United States 2-Year Note Auction

Impact:
Low
Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.955%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.795%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States 2-Year Note Auction measures the demand and interest rate for short-term government debt securities issued by the U.S. Treasury, specifically the 2-year Treasury notes. It focuses on the amount of money raised through these auctions and the yields determined, providing insights into market sentiments regarding short-term interest rates and expectations for future monetary policy.
Frequency
This auction occurs regularly, typically on a monthly basis, with the exact timing often scheduled on Tuesdays, presenting final figures after the auction has concluded.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor this auction as it influences the yield curve and reflects investor confidence in economic stability; higher demand usually signals bullish sentiment. The yields established at auction can impact various financial instruments such as currencies, stocks, and bonds, making it critical for anticipation of interest rate movements and subsequent market reactions.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from bids submitted by institutional investors, banks, and other entities, with all bids being classified as competitive or non-competitive. The final yield is determined by the pricing process during the auction, taking into account the total amount bid versus the amount offered.
Description
The 2-Year Note Auction provides essential insights into investor sentiment toward U.S. government debt and the economy, as it serves as a barometer for expectations about future interest rates and inflation. It signifies a critical part of the bond issuance process and helps in understanding how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy might be influencing market conditions.
Additional Notes
This auction is considered a leading indicator within the bond market as it often foreshadows future interest rate movements and other economic activities. Comparatively, the results of the 2-Year Note Auction are closely watched alongside other government bond auctions and economic indicators that gauge similar levels of economic activity.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If demand is higher than expected, it is bullish for the USD and bullish for stocks, indicating strong investor confidence. Conversely, if the yields are lower than expected due to weak demand, it is bearish for the USD and stocks, signaling potential concerns about economic strength.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3.955%
3.795%
3.795%
3.984%
3.984%
4.169%
4.169%
4.211%
4.211%
4.335%
4.335%
4.274%
4.274%
4.13%
4.13%
3.52%
3.52%
3.874%
3.874%
4.434%
4.434%
4.706%
4.706%
4.917%
4.917%
4.898%
4.898%
4.595%
4.595%
4.691%
4.691%
4.365%
4.365%
4.314%
4.314%
4.887%
4.887%
5.055%
5.055%
5.085%
5.085%
5.024%
5.024%
4.823%
4.823%
4.67%
4.67%
4.3%
4.3%
3.969%
3.969%
3.954%
3.954%
4.673%
4.673%
4.139%
4.139%
4.373%
4.373%
4.505%
4.505%
4.46%
4.46%
4.29%
4.29%
3.307%
3.307%
3.015%
3.015%
3.084%
3.084%
2.519%
2.519%
2.585%
2.585%
2.365%
2.365%
1.553%
1.553%
0.99%
0.99%
0.769%
0.769%
0.623%
0.623%
0.481%
0.481%
0.31%
0.31%
0.242%
0.242%
0.213%
0.213%
0.249%
0.249%
0.152%
0.152%
0.175%
0.175%
0.152%
0.152%
0.119%
0.119%
0.125%
0.125%
0.137%
0.137%
0.165%
0.165%
0.151%
0.151%
0.136%
0.136%
0.155%
0.155%
0.155%
0.155%
0.193%
0.193%
0.178%
0.178%
0.229%
0.229%
0.398%
0.398%
1.188%
1.188%
1.44%
1.44%
1.653%
1.653%
1.601%
1.601%
1.594%
1.594%
1.612%
1.612%
1.516%
1.516%
1.825%
1.825%
1.695%
1.695%
2.125%
2.125%
2.355%
2.355%
2.261%
2.261%
2.503%
2.503%
2.6%
2.6%
2.619%
2.619%
2.836%
2.836%
2.88%
2.88%
2.829%
2.829%
2.655%
2.655%
2.657%
2.657%
2.538%
2.538%
2.59%
2.59%
2.498%
2.498%
2.31%
2.31%
2.255%
2.255%
2.066%
2.066%
1.922%
1.922%
1.765%
1.765%
1.596%
1.596%
1.462%
1.462%
1.345%
1.345%
1.395%
1.395%
1.348%
1.348%
1.316%
1.316%
1.28%
1.28%
1.33%
1.261%
-0.05%
1.261%
1.18%
1.23%
0.081%
1.23%
1.14%
1.21%
0.09%
1.21%
1.28%
1.28%
1.085%
1.085%
0.86%
0.855%
0.225%
0.855%
0.83%
0.75%
0.025%
0.75%
0.76%
0.76%
0.76%
0.76%
0.745%
0.745%
0.92%
0.92%
0.842%
0.842%
1.01%
0.877%
-0.168%
0.877%
0.62%
0.752%
0.257%
0.752%
0.87%
0.86%
-0.118%
0.86%
0.94%
1.056%
-0.08%
1.056%
0.948%
0.948%
0.59%
0.824%
0.358%
0.824%
0.699%
0.699%
0.663%
0.663%
0.69%
0.69%
0.692%
0.692%
0.648%
0.648%
0.54%