Italy EUR

Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1%

Actual:

Forecast: 2.1%

Previous/Revision:

2.1%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 1.9%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Harmonised Inflation Rate Year-on-Year Final measures the change in consumer prices in Italy compared to the same month in the previous year, specifically capturing inflation trends using a consistent methodology across European Union member states. This indicator primarily focuses on the price changes in a broad range of goods and services affecting consumers, including food, housing, and transportation. Key indicators include the overall percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which signifies economic conditions, with inflation above 2% typically indicating rising prices and potential monetary tightening.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis, with the final figures generally published around the 15th of each month, providing a definitive account of inflation after preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Harmonised Inflation Rate as it directly influences monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank, impacting currency values such as the Euro and investment decisions in equity markets. Higher-than-expected inflation rates may lead to increased interest rates, creating a bullish sentiment in currencies but bearish movements in equities due to increased borrowing costs.

What Is It Derived From?

The Harmonised Inflation Rate is derived from a comprehensive statistical analysis of the prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, collected through surveys of retailers and service providers. The underlying methodology follows the European Union's guidelines, utilizing a harmonised approach that ensures comparability across EU nations and adjusts prices using a variety of statistical techniques including weighting and sample selection.

Description

The final Harmonised Inflation Rate report represents an authoritative estimate of inflation in Italy, contrasting with its preliminary counterpart that relies on early data inputs and can be revised over time. Markets tend to react strongly to preliminary data releases due to their timeliness, with the final data serving to confirm or adjust market expectations based on more refined calculations.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a key measure of inflation trends, functioning as a lagging economic indicator that reflects past purchasing behaviors and price changes within the economy. It is crucial for understanding wider economic conditions in Italy as it aligns with comparable inflation metrics across the eurozone, reflecting broader economic trends and influencing fiscal and monetary policies.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 16, 2025	2%	2.1%	2.1%	-0.1%
Apr 16, 2025	2.1%	2.1%	1.7%
Mar 17, 2025	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
Feb 21, 2025	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%
Jan 16, 2025	1.4%	1.4%	1.5%
Dec 16, 2024	1.5%	1.6%	1%	-0.1%
Nov 15, 2024	1%	1%	0.7%
Oct 16, 2024	0.7%	0.8%	1.2%	-0.1%
Sep 16, 2024	1.2%	1.3%	1.6%	-0.1%
Aug 09, 2024	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jul 16, 2024	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
Jun 17, 2024	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
May 16, 2024	0.9%	1%	1.2%	-0.1%
Apr 16, 2024	1.2%	1.3%	0.8%	-0.1%
Mar 15, 2024	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	-0.1%
Feb 22, 2024	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%
Jan 16, 2024	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%
Dec 15, 2023	0.6%	0.7%	1.8%	-0.1%
Nov 15, 2023	1.8%	1.9%	5.6%	-0.1%
Oct 16, 2023	5.6%	5.7%	5.5%	-0.1%
Sep 15, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	6.3%
Aug 10, 2023	6.3%	6.4%	6.7%	-0.1%
Jul 17, 2023	6.7%	6.7%	8%
Jun 16, 2023	8%	8.1%	8.7%	-0.1%
May 16, 2023	8.7%	8.8%	8.1%	-0.1%
Apr 17, 2023	8.1%	8.2%	9.8%	-0.1%
Mar 16, 2023	9.8%	9.9%	10.7%	-0.1%
Feb 22, 2023	10.7%	10.9%	12.3%	-0.2%
Jan 17, 2023	12.3%	12.3%	12.6%
Dec 16, 2022	12.6%	12.5%	12.6%	0.1%
Nov 16, 2022	12.6%	12.8%	9.4%	-0.2%
Oct 17, 2022	9.4%	9.5%	9.1%	-0.1%
Sep 16, 2022	9.1%	9%	8.4%	0.1%
Aug 10, 2022	8.4%	8.4%	8.5%
Jul 15, 2022	8.5%	8.5%	7.3%
Jun 16, 2022	7.3%	7.3%	6.3%
May 17, 2022	6.3%	6.6%	6.8%	-0.3%
Apr 15, 2022	6.8%	7%	6.2%	-0.2%
Mar 16, 2022	6.2%	6.2%	5.1%
Feb 22, 2022	5.1%	5.3%	4.2%	-0.2%
Jan 17, 2022	4.2%	4.2%	3.9%
Dec 15, 2021	3.9%	4%	3.2%	-0.1%
Nov 16, 2021	3.2%	3.1%	2.9%	0.1%
Oct 15, 2021	2.9%	3%	2.5%	-0.1%
Sep 15, 2021	2.5%	2.6%	1%	-0.1%
Aug 11, 2021	1%	0.9%	1.3%	0.1%
Jul 15, 2021	1.3%	1.3%	1.2%
Jun 15, 2021	1.2%	1.3%	1%	-0.1%
May 17, 2021	1%	1%	0.6%
Apr 15, 2021	0.6%	0.6%	1%
Mar 16, 2021	1%	1%	0.7%
Feb 19, 2021	0.7%	0.5%	-0.3%	0.2%
Jan 18, 2021	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Dec 15, 2020	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.6%
Nov 16, 2020	-0.6%	-0.6%	-1%
Oct 16, 2020	-1%	-0.9%	-0.5%	-0.1%
Sep 15, 2020	-0.5%	-0.5%	0.8%
Aug 12, 2020	0.8%	0.9%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2020	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.3%
Jun 15, 2020	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
May 15, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 15, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Mar 16, 2020	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.1%
Feb 21, 2020	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jan 17, 2020	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
Dec 16, 2019	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2%
Nov 15, 2019	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%
Oct 16, 2019	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%
Sep 16, 2019	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
Aug 09, 2019	0.3%	0.4%	0.8%	-0.1%
Jul 16, 2019	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
Jun 14, 2019	0.9%	0.9%	1.1%
May 16, 2019	1.1%	1.2%	1.1%	-0.1%
Apr 17, 2019	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%
Mar 15, 2019	1.1%	1.2%	0.9%	-0.1%
Feb 21, 2019	0.9%	0.9%	1.2%
Jan 16, 2019	1.2%	1.2%	1.6%
Dec 14, 2018	1.6%	1.7%	1.7%	-0.1%
Nov 16, 2018	1.7%	1.7%	1.5%
Oct 16, 2018	1.5%	1.6%	1.6%	-0.1%
Sep 14, 2018	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	-0.1%
Aug 13, 2018	1.9%	1.9%	1.4%
Jul 17, 2018	1.4%	0.8%	1%	0.6%
Jun 15, 2018	1%	1.1%	0.6%	-0.1%
May 16, 2018	0.6%	0.6%	0.9%
Apr 17, 2018	0.9%	1.1%	0.5%	-0.2%
Mar 16, 2018	0.5%	0.7%	1.2%	-0.2%
Feb 22, 2018	1.2%	1.1%	1%	0.1%
Jan 16, 2018	1%	1%	1.1%
Dec 14, 2017	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%
Nov 14, 2017	1.1%	1.1%	1.3%
Oct 13, 2017	1.3%	1.3%	1.4%
Sep 14, 2017	1.4%	1.4%	1.2%
Aug 11, 2017	1.2%	1.2%	1.3%
Jul 14, 2017	1.3%	1.2%	1.6%	0.1%
Jun 15, 2017	1.6%	1.5%	2%	0.1%
May 15, 2017	2%	2%	1.4%
Apr 13, 2017	1.4%	1.3%	1.6%	0.1%
Mar 15, 2017	1.6%	1.6%	1%
Feb 22, 2017	1%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%
Jan 16, 2017	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Dec 14, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 14, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
Oct 14, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 14, 2016	-0.1%	0%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 11, 2016	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Jul 13, 2016	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jun 14, 2016	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.4%
May 13, 2016	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Apr 14, 2016	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
Mar 15, 2016	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.4%
Feb 22, 2016	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Jan 15, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Dec 14, 2015	0.2%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Nov 13, 2015	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Oct 14, 2015	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Sep 14, 2015	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
Aug 11, 2015	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jul 14, 2015	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jun 15, 2015	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
May 13, 2015	-0.1%	0%	0%	-0.1%