Japan JPY

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Bank of Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.5%

Forecast: 0.5%

Previous/Revision:

0.5%

Period:

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.5%

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision measures the monetary policy stance of the BoJ through its benchmark interest rate, which directly influences the cost of borrowing and spending in the economy. It assesses key areas such as inflation, economic growth, and monetary stability, with primary indicators being the policy rate itself, inflation targets, and consumption trends, typically providing a national indicator of Japan's economic health.

Frequency

The interest rate decision is reviewed and announced approximately every two months, with the release typically occurring on a weekday.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the BoJ's interest rate decisions closely as they have significant implications for the Japanese yen (JPY), equities, and globally correlated markets. A higher-than-expected rate tends to strengthen the JPY and boost Japanese stocks, while lower rates may have the opposite effect, making the timing of these decisions crucial for market forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The BoJ Interest Rate Decision is derived from extensive economic analysis, incorporating data from various sources including inflation rates, GDP growth, and employment figures. The decision-making process involves comprehensive assessments, including input from economic surveys and projections by the central bank’s economists, adhering to established monetary policy frameworks.

Description

The announcement distinguishes between preliminary and final decisions; while the preliminary release reflects initial forecasts and analysis, the final decision is based on more comprehensive data and reflects insights that often consider more nuanced economic trends. The BoJ typically employs a consensus-based approach to set its interest rates, striving to adapt promptly to emerging economic data and global financial conditions.

Additional Notes

The BoJ's interest rate decision serves as a coincident economic measure and is critical for understanding Japan’s economic direction and stability. It is also closely watched in relation to other global central bank decisions, influencing cross-border capital flows and financial market dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the JPY but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 01, 2025	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Mar 19, 2025	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jan 24, 2025	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%
Dec 19, 2024	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Oct 31, 2024	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 20, 2024	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jul 31, 2024	0.25%	0.1%	0.1%	0.15%
Jun 14, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 26, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 19, 2024	0%	0%	-0.1%
Jan 23, 2024	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 19, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 22, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 28, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 16, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 28, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 10, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 18, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 20, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 28, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 22, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 21, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 17, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 28, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 18, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 18, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 17, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 28, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 22, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 16, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 18, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 19, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 21, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 18, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 29, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 17, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 16, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
May 22, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 16, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 21, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 19, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 19, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 30, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 20, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 25, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 15, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 23, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 20, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 19, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 15, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 09, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 23, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 21, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 21, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 20, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 16, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 16, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 31, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 20, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 01, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 21, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 29, 2016	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
Jun 16, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 28, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 15, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 29, 2016	-0.1%	0%	0%	-0.1%
Dec 18, 2015	0%	0%	0%
Nov 19, 2015	0%	0%	0%
Oct 30, 2015	0%	0%	0%
Oct 07, 2015	0%	0%	0%
Sep 15, 2015	0%	0%	0%
Aug 07, 2015	0%	0%	0%
Jul 15, 2015	0%	0%	0%
Jun 19, 2015	0%	0%	0%
May 22, 2015	0%	0%	0%