United States USD

United States Core Inflation Rate MoM

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
0.2%
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous/Revision:
0.2%
Period: Oct
What Does It Measure?
The Core Inflation Rate measures the change in prices of goods and services excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. This indicator focuses on consumer price changes and is pivotal in assessing inflation pressures that may influence monetary policy.
Frequency
The Core Inflation Rate is reported monthly, and the figures are often released as preliminary estimates, providing early insights before final revisions occur typically around the middle of the following month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Core Inflation Rate as it significantly influences central bank policies regarding interest rates; higher-than-expected inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to adjust rates upwards, affecting the valuations of currencies like the USD, as well as stocks and bonds. Additionally, unexpected changes in this rate can lead to volatility in financial markets, as they alter expectations about economic growth and inflation.
What Is It Derived From?
This measure is derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which collects price data from over 80,000 items to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The core component is calculated by excluding food and energy prices from the overall CPI, thereby using a weighted average approach to derive a more stable measure of inflation.
Description
The Core Inflation Rate is typically reported as a month-over-month (MoM) change, which compares the latest month’s data to that of the previous month, effectively capturing short-term fluctuations in inflation. This method is adopted because it provides timely insights into current inflationary trends, allowing traders to respond quickly to market changes.
Additional Notes
The Core Inflation Rate is considered a lagging economic indicator, reflecting past pricing trends rather than predicting future changes. It is often compared with the headline inflation figure to gauge the influence of volatile price changes, highlighting its role in broader economic assessments.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Nov 17, 2015
0.2%
 0.2%
0.2%
Oct 15, 2015
0.2%
 0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Sep 16, 2015
0.1%
 0.1%
0.1%
Aug 19, 2015
0.1%
 0.2%
0.2%
-0.1%
Jul 17, 2015
0.2%
 0.2%
0.1%
Jun 18, 2015
0.1%
 0.2%
0.3%
-0.1%
May 22, 2015
0.3%
 0.2%
0.2%
 0.1%