United States USD

United States PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.1%
Actual:
2.5%
Forecast: 2.6%
Previous/Revision:
2.8%
Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 2.5%
Period: Jul
What Does It Measure?
The United States Producer Price Index (PPI) ex Food, Energy, and Trade Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy as well as trade services. This index primarily focuses on inflation at the wholesale level and assesses trends in prices that producers charge for goods and services over time, which can signal inflationary pressures in the economy.
Frequency
The PPI is released monthly, typically on the second business day of the month following the reporting period, with preliminary figures often revised in subsequent announcements.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor PPI data as increases in wholesale prices can indicate rising inflation, which may lead to higher interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, higher-than-expected PPI figures can be bullish for the USD, while bearish for equities, as the cost pressures may erode corporate profit margins.
What Is It Derived From?
The PPI is derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), collecting price data from producers across various industries, including manufacturing and services. This data reflects changes in price quoting practices and market conditions, using a diffusion index that indicates how many firms are experiencing price increases versus those reporting decreases.
Description
While preliminary data offers insight into immediate price trends, final PPI reports provide a more accurate representation of producer prices over time, generally confirmed in subsequent revisions. The PPI ex Food, Energy, and Trade YoY is strategically used as a Year-over-Year measure to compare current price levels to those from the same month in the previous year, allowing for the analysis of longer-term inflationary trends, thus minimizing seasonal influence.
Additional Notes
The PPI serves as a leading economic indicator, often predictive of consumer price inflation trends, as increasing production costs are typically passed on to consumers. This measure is essential for understanding broader economic conditions and is often compared with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to gauge inflationary pressures in the economy.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.5%
2.6%
2.8%
-0.1%
2.7%
2.9%
2.9%
-0.2%
2.9%
3.4%
3.5%
-0.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.5%
0.1%
3.3%
3.4%
3.4%
-0.1%
3.4%
3.2%
3.5%
0.2%
3.3%
3.6%
3.5%
-0.3%
3.5%
3.6%
3.5%
-0.1%
3.5%
3.1%
3.3%
0.4%
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.2%
3.3%
3.1%
3.2%
0.2%
3.1%
3.2%
3.3%
-0.1%
3.2%
3.1%
3.2%
0.1%
3.1%
2.8%
2.8%
0.3%
2.8%
3%
2.7%
-0.2%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
0.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
0.3%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
0.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.8%
-0.1%
2.9%
2.7%
3%
0.2%
2.8%
2.9%