United States USD

United States ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.4

Actual:

55.4

Forecast: 55

Previous/Revision:

56.3

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector in the United States, specifically focusing on services such as retail, healthcare, finance, and construction. Its primary areas of assessment include business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries, with readings above 50 indicating expansion in the sector, while readings below 50 signal contraction; it serves as a national indicator.

Frequency

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, and is considered a preliminary estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this index due to its significant impact on financial markets, as higher-than-expected readings can signal a robust economic outlook, leading to bullish sentiment for equities and the U.S. dollar, while weaker results may dampen market confidence and lead to bearish effects on these assets. Its timely release also aids in shaping economic forecasts and investment strategies.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey conducted among purchasing and supply executives across various industries, with approximately 400 companies participating, and is calculated using a diffusion index that considers responses regarding business activity and new orders. The methodology involves weighting the responses to provide a comprehensive view of the non-manufacturing sector's performance.

Description

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index is a critical barometer of the non-manufacturing sector's performance in the U.S., which includes a vast array of services that account for a significant portion of the economy. The preliminary data is formulated from early responses and is subject to revision before the release of final figures, which provide a more accurate representation in subsequent months.

Additional Notes

This index is considered a leading economic indicator, reflecting the sentiment of service-based industries that are vital for economic growth, and is closely watched for insights into consumer-facing sectors. Additionally, it serves as a complement to the ISM Manufacturing Index, illustrating broader economic trends beyond the manufacturing industry.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 05, 2023	55.4	55	56.3	0.4
Mar 03, 2023	56.3	59.2	60.4	-2.9
Feb 03, 2023	60.4	54.5	53.5	5.9
Jan 06, 2023	54.7	59.5	64.7	-4.8
Dec 05, 2022	64.7	54	55.7	10.7
Nov 03, 2022	55.7	58.2	59.1	-2.5
Oct 05, 2022	59.1	60.5	60.9	-1.4
Sep 06, 2022	60.9	57	59.9	3.9
Aug 03, 2022	59.9	54	56.1	5.9
Jul 06, 2022	56.1	54	54.5	2.1
Jun 03, 2022	54.5	58	59.1	-3.5
May 04, 2022	59.1	55.7	55.5	3.4
Apr 05, 2022	55.5	56	55.1	-0.5
Mar 03, 2022	55.1	60	59.9	-4.9
Feb 03, 2022	59.9	66	68.3	-6.1
Jan 06, 2022	67.6	71	74.6	-3.4
Dec 03, 2021	74.6	68	69.8	6.6
Nov 03, 2021	69.8	62	62.3	7.8
Oct 05, 2021	62.3	59.5	60.1	2.8
Sep 03, 2021	60.1	62.8	67	-2.7
Aug 04, 2021	67	60.6	60.4	6.4
Jul 06, 2021	60.4	66.4	66.2	-6
Jun 03, 2021	66.2	67.2	62.7	-1
May 05, 2021	62.7	69.5	69.4	-6.8
Apr 05, 2021	69.4	57	55.5	12.4
Mar 03, 2021	55.5	60	59.9	-4.5
Feb 03, 2021	59.9	57.3	60.5	2.6
Jan 07, 2021	59.4	55	58	4.4
Dec 03, 2020	58	60.9	61.2	-2.9
Nov 04, 2020	61.2	62	63	-0.8
Oct 05, 2020	63	61	62.4	2
Sep 03, 2020	62.4	65	67.2	-2.6
Aug 05, 2020	67.2	60	66	7.2
Jul 06, 2020	66	49	41	17
Jun 03, 2020	41	34	26	7
May 05, 2020	26		48
Apr 03, 2020	48	45	57.8	3
Mar 04, 2020	57.8	58.8	60.9	-1
Feb 05, 2020	60.9	56.5	57	4.4
Jan 07, 2020	57.2	52	51.6	5.2
Dec 04, 2019	51.6	56.1	57	-4.5
Nov 05, 2019	57	55	55.2	2
Oct 03, 2019	55.2	59	61.5	-3.8
Sep 05, 2019	61.5	53.3	53.1	8.2
Aug 05, 2019	53.1	58.3	58.2	-5.2
Jul 03, 2019	58.2	60	61.2	-1.8
Jun 05, 2019	61.2	58.5	59.5	2.7
May 03, 2019	59.5	58.8	57.4	0.7
Apr 03, 2019	57.4	61.5	64.7	-4.1
Mar 05, 2019	64.7	59.9	59.7	4.8
Feb 05, 2019	59.7	59.5	61.2	0.2
Jan 07, 2019	59.9	64	65.2	-4.1
Dec 06, 2018	65.2	62	62.5	3.2
Nov 05, 2018	62.5	64.5	65.2	-2
Oct 03, 2018	65.2	60.3	60.7	4.9
Sep 06, 2018	60.7	56.9	56.5	3.8
Aug 03, 2018	56.5	63.2	63.9	-6.7
Jul 05, 2018	63.9	60.9	61.3	3
Jun 05, 2018	61.3	59.3	59.1	2
May 03, 2018	59.1	60	60.6	-0.9
Apr 04, 2018	60.6	62.3	62.8	-1.7
Mar 05, 2018	62.8	60	59.8	2.8
Feb 05, 2018	59.8	57.2	57.8	2.6
Jan 05, 2018	57.3	61	61.4	-3.7
Dec 05, 2017	61.4	61	62.2	0.4
Nov 03, 2017	62.2	61	61.3	1.2
Oct 04, 2017	61.3	57.2	57.5	4.1
Sep 06, 2017	57.5	56	55.9	1.5
Aug 03, 2017	55.9	59.6	60.8	-3.7
Jul 06, 2017	60.8	60.8	60.7
Jun 05, 2017	60.7	62	62.4	-1.3
May 03, 2017	62.4	58.4	58.9	4
Apr 05, 2017	58.9	61.5	63.6	-2.6
Mar 03, 2017	63.6	60	60.3	3.6
Feb 03, 2017	60.3	61.2	60.9	-0.9
Jan 05, 2017	61.4	61	61.7	0.4
Dec 05, 2016	61.7	58	57.7	3.7
Nov 03, 2016	57.7	59.7	60.3	-2
Oct 05, 2016	60.3	52.2	51.8	8.1
Sep 06, 2016	51.8	58.8	59.3	-7
Aug 03, 2016	59.3	59.5	59.5	-0.2
Jul 06, 2016	59.5	55.5	55.1	4
Jun 03, 2016	55.1		58.8
May 04, 2016	58.8	59.2	59.8	-0.4
Apr 05, 2016	59.8	57.4	57.8	2.4
Mar 03, 2016	57.8	54	53.9	3.8
Feb 03, 2016	53.9	58.5	59.5	-4.6
Jan 06, 2016	58.7	58.4	58.2	0.3
Dec 03, 2015	58.2	60.2	63	-2
Nov 04, 2015	63	59.5	60.2	3.5
Oct 05, 2015	60.2		63.9
Sep 03, 2015	63.9	61	64.9	2.9
Aug 05, 2015	64.9	61	61.5	3.9
Jul 06, 2015	61.5	60	59.5	1.5
Jun 03, 2015	59.5	60.5	61.6	-1