Japan JPY

Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

0.1%

JPY

Actual:

3.5%

Forecast: 3.4%

Previous/Revision:

3.2%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Japan Core Inflation Rate YoY measures the year-over-year change in the prices of goods and services, excluding fresh food items, to assess underlying inflation trends in the economy. This indicator primarily focuses on consumer price changes, providing insights into cost pressures and purchasing power in Japan.

Frequency

The Japan Core Inflation Rate is released on a monthly basis, with preliminary figures typically published around the end of the month following the assessment period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Japan Core Inflation Rate closely because it serves as a key indicator of inflationary pressures, influencing monetary policy and interest rates. Fluctuations in this rate can significantly impact the Japanese yen and equities, with higher-than-expected figures generally leading to appreciation of the yen and bullish sentiment in the stock market.

What Is It Derived From?

The Japan Core Inflation Rate is derived from a comprehensive survey of consumer prices across various sectors, excluding volatile food prices. Data is collected by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications using a basket of goods and services, calculated through a weighted index that reflects consumer spending patterns.

Description

The core inflation rate is distinct from general inflation measures as it omits fresh food, focusing instead on the more stable components of consumer prices to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. While preliminary reports indicate initial estimates based on early data, final figures offer a revised and more accurate assessment, with markets typically reacting more vigorously to the preliminary data due to its immediacy.

Additional Notes

This inflation measure is considered a lagging indicator, closely tied to previous economic activity and trends. It is crucial for understanding Japan's economic health and forecasts, often compared with other central bank indicators to gauge overall economic sentiment and direction.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the JPY but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 22, 2025	3.5%	3.4%	3.2%	0.1%
Apr 17, 2025	3.2%	3.2%	3%
Mar 20, 2025	3%	2.9%	3.2%	0.1%
Feb 20, 2025	3.2%	3.1%	3%	0.1%
Jan 23, 2025	3%	3%	2.7%
Dec 19, 2024	2.7%	2.6%	2.3%	0.1%
Nov 21, 2024	2.3%	2.2%	2.4%	0.1%
Oct 17, 2024	2.4%	2.3%	2.8%	0.1%
Sep 19, 2024	2.8%	2.8%	2.7%
Aug 22, 2024	2.7%	2.7%	2.6%
Jul 18, 2024	2.6%	2.7%	2.5%	-0.1%
Jun 20, 2024	2.5%	2.6%	2.2%	-0.1%
May 23, 2024	2.2%	2.2%	2.6%
Apr 18, 2024	2.6%	2.7%	2.8%	-0.1%
Mar 21, 2024	2.8%	2.8%	2%
Feb 26, 2024	2%	1.8%	2.3%	0.2%
Jan 18, 2024	2.3%	2.3%	2.5%
Dec 21, 2023	2.5%	2.5%	2.9%
Nov 23, 2023	2.9%	3%	2.8%	-0.1%
Oct 19, 2023	2.8%	2.7%	3.1%	0.1%
Sep 21, 2023	3.1%	3%	3.1%	0.1%
Aug 17, 2023	3.1%	3.1%	3.3%
Jul 20, 2023	3.3%	3.3%	3.2%
Jun 22, 2023	3.2%	3.1%	3.4%	0.1%
May 18, 2023	3.4%	3.4%	3.1%
Apr 20, 2023	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
Mar 23, 2023	3.1%	3.1%	4.2%
Feb 23, 2023	4.2%	4.2%	4%
Jan 19, 2023	4%	4%	3.7%
Dec 22, 2022	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%
Nov 17, 2022	3.6%	3.5%	3%	0.1%
Oct 20, 2022	3%	3%	2.8%
Sep 19, 2022	2.8%	2.7%	2.4%	0.1%
Aug 18, 2022	2.4%	2.4%	2.2%
Jul 21, 2022	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Jun 23, 2022	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
May 19, 2022	2.1%	2.1%	0.8%
Apr 21, 2022	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%
Mar 17, 2022	0.6%	0.6%	0.2%
Feb 17, 2022	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jan 20, 2022	0.5%	0.6%	0.5%	-0.1%
Dec 23, 2021	0.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 18, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 21, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0%
Sep 23, 2021	0%	0%	-0.2%
Aug 19, 2021	-0.2%	-0.4%	-0.5%	0.2%
Jul 19, 2021	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jun 17, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
May 20, 2021	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
Apr 22, 2021	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.4%
Mar 18, 2021	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.6%
Feb 18, 2021	-0.6%	-0.7%	-1%	0.1%
Jan 21, 2021	-1%	-1.1%	-0.9%	0.1%
Dec 17, 2020	-0.9%	-0.9%	-0.7%
Nov 19, 2020	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.3%
Oct 22, 2020	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.4%	0.1%
Sep 17, 2020	-0.4%	-0.4%	0%
Aug 20, 2020	0%	0.1%	0%	-0.1%
Jul 20, 2020	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jun 18, 2020	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
May 21, 2020	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.4%	-0.1%
Apr 23, 2020	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%
Mar 18, 2020	0.6%	0.6%	0.8%
Feb 20, 2020	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
Jan 23, 2020	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%
Dec 19, 2019	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Nov 21, 2019	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Oct 17, 2019	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
Sep 19, 2019	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%
Aug 22, 2019	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Jul 18, 2019	0.6%	0.6%	0.8%
Jun 20, 2019	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
May 23, 2019	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
Apr 18, 2019	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%
Mar 21, 2019	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	-0.1%
Feb 21, 2019	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
Jan 17, 2019	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%
Dec 20, 2018	0.9%	1%	1%	-0.1%
Nov 21, 2018	1%	1%	1%
Oct 18, 2018	1%	1%	0.9%
Sep 20, 2018	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
Aug 23, 2018	0.8%	0.9%	0.8%	-0.1%
Jul 19, 2018	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
Jun 21, 2018	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
May 17, 2018	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%
Apr 19, 2018	0.9%	0.9%	1%
Mar 22, 2018	1%	1%	0.9%
Feb 22, 2018	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Jan 25, 2018	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Dec 25, 2017	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%
Nov 30, 2017	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
Oct 26, 2017	0.7%	0.8%	0.7%	-0.1%
Sep 28, 2017	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%
Aug 24, 2017	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Jul 27, 2017	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Jun 29, 2017	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
May 25, 2017	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2017	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%
Mar 30, 2017	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Mar 02, 2017	0.1%	0%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jan 26, 2017	-0.2%	0.8%	-0.4%	-1%
Dec 26, 2016	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Nov 24, 2016	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.5%
Oct 27, 2016	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Sep 29, 2016	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.1%
Aug 25, 2016	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Jul 28, 2016	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Jun 30, 2016	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.3%
May 26, 2016	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.3%	0.1%
Apr 27, 2016	-0.3%	-0.2%	0%	-0.1%
Mar 24, 2016	0%	0.1%	0%	-0.1%
Feb 25, 2016	0%	0%	0.1%
Jan 28, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Dec 24, 2015	0.1%	0%	-0.1%	0.1%
Nov 26, 2015	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 29, 2015	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
Sep 25, 2015	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%
Aug 28, 2015	0%	-0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
Jul 31, 2015	0.1%	0%	0.1%	0.1%
Jun 26, 2015	0.1%	0%	0.3%	0.1%
May 29, 2015	0.3%	0.2%	2.2%	0.1%
May 01, 2015	2.2%	2.1%	2%	0.1%