New Zealand NZD

New Zealand CPI

Impact:
High
Source: Statistics New Zealand

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
1259
Forecast: 1259
Previous/Revision:
1253
Period: Q4

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 1270
Period: Q1
What Does It Measure?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, providing insight into inflationary pressures within the economy. It primarily assesses key areas such as housing, food, transportation, and healthcare, with movements in the CPI allowing economists to gauge inflation rates and cost of living adjustments on a national level.
Frequency
The CPI for New Zealand is released quarterly, typically within a month after the end of each quarter, and the data is published as a final figure.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor CPI data because it is a critical indicator of inflation, which influences monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Higher-than-expected CPI results can lead to an appreciation of the New Zealand dollar and bullish sentiment in the stock market, while lower readings may drive currency depreciation and bearish market reactions.
What Is It Derived From?
The CPI is derived from a representative survey of households that measures price changes, utilizing a fixed basket of goods and services collected through a combination of surveys and market data. The index employs a weighted average methodology, where different items contribute differently to the final index based on their significance in consumer spending.
Description
The CPI data is released as a final report that reflects comprehensive analysis, capturing prices from various sectors and ensuring that the underlying methodology adheres to best practices for accuracy. The measure is reported on a year-over-year (YoY) basis to eliminate seasonal variations and track long-term inflation trends, thus making it the preferred gauge for economic analysis.
Additional Notes
The CPI is considered a lagging economic indicator, as it reflects fluctuations that have already occurred in the economy. This measure is often compared with other inflation metrics, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI), and can influence private consumption and investment decisions, impacting broader economic conditions in New Zealand and beyond.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for NZD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for NZD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or weaker inflation concerns, is usually bad for the NZD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Jan 23, 2024
1259
 1259
1253
Oct 16, 2023
1253
 1257
1231
 -4
Jul 18, 2023
1231
 1229.5
1218
 1.5
Apr 19, 2023
1218
 1223
1203
-5
Jan 24, 2023
1203
 1202
1186
 1