United States USD

United States Treasury Refunding Announcement

Impact:
Low
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States Treasury Refunding Announcement measures the government's planned issuance of debt securities to refinance existing debt obligations and fund federal activities. This announcement primarily focuses on the volume and terms of securities being issued, assessing the government's borrowing needs and the impact on liquidity in financial markets.
Frequency
This announcement is typically released quarterly, providing a preliminary estimate of upcoming debt securities to be issued by the U.S. Treasury, with the specific release typically occurring in the first week of February, May, August, and November.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Treasury Refunding Announcement due to its significant implications for interest rates, liquidity, and the overall financial market. Changes in the supply of Treasury securities can affect bond prices, influencing currency values like the USD and impacting stock market performance through interest rate expectations.
What Is It Derived From?
The announcement is derived from the U.S. Treasury's evaluation of its financing needs, including current debt levels, budgetary requirements, and economic forecasts. The Treasury employs a systematic approach to determine the appropriate maturity and volume of debt instruments necessary to meet these financing objectives.
Description
The Treasury Refunding Announcement presents a detailed breakdown of upcoming debt issuances, including the types of securities (such as notes, bonds, and TIPS) and their respective maturities. Preliminary data is included at the outset, reflecting estimates on how much capital the Treasury aims to raise and at what terms, while final figures provide more accurate issuance details post-auction.
Additional Notes
The announcement serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting the present government's financing strategies and its responsiveness to market conditions. It plays a crucial role in understanding the relationship between government debt levels and overall economic health, alongside other indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Federal Reserve calibrations.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise