Italy EUR

Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

1.9%

Forecast: 1.9%

Previous/Revision:

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Harmonised Inflation Rate Year-on-Year (YoY) for Italy measures the percentage change in the price levels of a basket of goods and services over one year, based on harmonised standards set by the European Union. This indicator primarily assesses price stability, reflecting inflation dynamics and consumer purchasing power, and is a critical component of economic health, influencing monetary policy decisions.

Frequency

This indicator is released on a monthly basis, with the preliminary figures typically published around the middle of the month, providing a timely snapshot of inflation trends.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Harmonised Inflation Rate as fluctuations can significantly affect currency valuation (particularly the Euro) and bond markets. Higher-than-expected inflation readings are often viewed as bullish for the Euro but may raise concerns over potential interest rate hikes, impacting stock valuations due to increased borrowing costs.

What Is It Derived From?

The Harmonised Inflation Rate is calculated using data collected from national statistics offices, which compile prices across various categories such as food, housing, transportation, and services. This data is harmonised to ensure consistency across EU member states, facilitating comparison and analysis.

Description

Preliminary reports on the Harmonised Inflation Rate are based on initial estimates and may be subject to revisions, while the final data released later offers a more accurate reflection of inflation trends. This indicator is reported on a Year-on-Year (YoY) basis, which is preferred as it effectively captures long-term structural changes in price levels, eliminating seasonal fluctuations.

Additional Notes

The Harmonised Inflation Rate serves as a key economic indicator and is often seen as a coincident measure reflecting current economic conditions. Its trends are compared with other inflation metrics and economic indicators, such as GDP growth and employment rates, providing broader context for economic forecasts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the Euro but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 30, 2025	1.9%	1.9%	2%
Apr 30, 2025	2.1%	2.3%	2.1%	-0.2%
Mar 31, 2025	2.1%	1.9%	1.7%	0.2%
Feb 28, 2025	1.7%	1.8%	1.7%	-0.1%
Feb 03, 2025	1.7%	1.4%	1.4%	0.3%
Jan 07, 2025	1.4%	1.6%	1.5%	-0.2%
Nov 29, 2024	1.6%	1.5%	1%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2024	1%	0.8%	0.7%	0.2%
Sep 30, 2024	0.8%	-0.5%	1.2%	1.3%
Aug 30, 2024	1.3%	1.3%	1.6%
Jul 31, 2024	1.7%	1.2%	0.9%	0.5%
Jun 28, 2024	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
May 31, 2024	0.8%	0.7%	0.9%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2024	1%	1.2%	1.2%	-0.2%
Mar 29, 2024	1.3%	1.5%	0.8%	-0.2%
Mar 01, 2024	0.9%	1%	0.9%	-0.1%
Feb 01, 2024	0.9%	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%
Jan 05, 2024	0.5%	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
Nov 30, 2023	0.7%	1.4%	1.8%	-0.7%
Oct 31, 2023	1.9%	2.3%	5.6%	-0.4%
Sep 29, 2023	5.7%	5.3%	5.5%	0.4%
Aug 31, 2023	5.5%	5.6%	6.3%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2023	6.4%	6.4%	6.7%
Jun 28, 2023	6.7%	6.8%	8%	-0.1%
May 31, 2023	8.1%	7.5%	8.7%	0.6%
May 02, 2023	8.8%	7.8%	8.1%	1%
Mar 31, 2023	8.2%	8.9%	9.8%	-0.7%
Mar 02, 2023	9.9%	9.4%	10.7%	0.5%
Feb 01, 2023	10.9%	11%	12.3%	-0.1%
Jan 05, 2023	12.3%	12.3%	12.6%
Nov 30, 2022	12.5%	12%	12.6%	0.5%
Oct 28, 2022	12.8%	9.9%	9.4%	2.9%
Sep 30, 2022	9.5%	9.4%	9.1%	0.1%
Aug 31, 2022	9%	8.3%	8.4%	0.7%
Jul 29, 2022	8.4%	8.8%	8.5%	-0.4%
Jul 01, 2022	8.5%	7.8%	7.3%	0.7%
May 31, 2022	7.3%	6.8%	6.3%	0.5%
Apr 29, 2022	6.6%	6.5%	6.8%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2022	7%	7.2%	6.2%	-0.2%
Mar 01, 2022	6.2%	5.4%	5.1%	0.8%
Feb 02, 2022	5.3%	4%	4.2%	1.3%
Jan 05, 2022	4.2%	4.2%	3.9%
Nov 30, 2021	4%	3.3%	3.2%	0.7%
Oct 29, 2021	3.1%	3.2%	2.9%	-0.1%
Sep 30, 2021	3%	3%	2.5%
Aug 31, 2021	2.6%	2%	1%	0.6%
Jul 30, 2021	0.9%	1%	1.3%	-0.1%
Jun 30, 2021	1.3%	1.4%	1.2%	-0.1%
May 31, 2021	1.3%	1.3%	1%
Apr 30, 2021	1%	0.9%	0.6%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2021	0.6%	1.3%	1%	-0.7%
Mar 01, 2021	1%	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%
Feb 03, 2021	0.5%	0.2%	-0.3%	0.3%
Jan 07, 2021	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Nov 30, 2020	-0.3%	-0.5%	-0.6%	0.2%
Oct 30, 2020	-0.6%	-0.8%	-1%	0.2%
Sep 30, 2020	-0.9%	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Aug 31, 2020	-0.5%	0%	0.8%	-0.5%
Jul 31, 2020	0.9%	-0.1%	-0.4%	1%
Jun 30, 2020	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.1%
May 29, 2020	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2020	0.1%	-0.3%	0.1%	0.4%
Mar 31, 2020	0.1%	-0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Feb 28, 2020	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.1%
Feb 04, 2020	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jan 07, 2020	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
Nov 29, 2019	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Sep 30, 2019	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%	-0.3%
Aug 30, 2019	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
Jul 31, 2019	0.4%	0.5%	0.8%	-0.1%
Jun 28, 2019	0.8%	0.7%	0.9%	0.1%
May 31, 2019	0.9%	1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2019	1.2%	1.2%	1.1%
Mar 29, 2019	1.1%	1%	1.1%	0.1%
Feb 28, 2019	1.2%	1.2%	0.9%
Feb 04, 2019	0.9%	0.8%	1.2%	0.1%
Jan 04, 2019	1.2%	1.4%	1.6%	-0.2%
Nov 30, 2018	1.7%	1.6%	1.7%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2018	1.7%	1.8%	1.5%	-0.1%
Sep 28, 2018	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2018	1.7%	1.7%	1.9%
Jul 31, 2018	1.9%	1.9%	1.4%
Jun 28, 2018	1.5%	1.4%	1%	0.1%
May 31, 2018	1.1%	1%	0.6%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2018	0.6%	0.7%	0.9%	-0.1%
Mar 30, 2018	1.1%	0.8%	0.5%	0.3%
Feb 28, 2018	0.7%	1%	1.2%	-0.3%
Feb 02, 2018	1.1%	1%	1%	0.1%
Jan 05, 2018	1%	1.2%	1.1%	-0.2%
Nov 30, 2017	1.1%	1.3%	1.1%	-0.2%
Oct 31, 2017	1.1%	1.1%	1.3%
Sep 29, 2017	1.3%	1.3%	1.4%
Aug 31, 2017	1.4%	1.3%	1.2%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2017	1.2%	1.2%	1.3%
Jun 28, 2017	1.2%	1.4%	1.6%	-0.2%
May 31, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	2%
Apr 28, 2017	2%	1.6%	1.4%	0.4%
Mar 31, 2017	1.3%	1.6%	1.6%	-0.3%
Feb 28, 2017	1.6%	1.2%	1%	0.4%
Feb 03, 2017	0.7%	0.8%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jan 04, 2017	0.5%		0.1%
Nov 30, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2016	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
Sep 30, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2016	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jul 29, 2016	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2016	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.1%
May 31, 2016	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.4%
Apr 29, 2016	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Mar 31, 2016	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Feb 29, 2016	-0.2%	0%	0.4%	-0.2%
Feb 03, 2016	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Jan 05, 2016	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.3%
Nov 30, 2015	0.1%	0.4%	0.5%	-0.3%
Oct 30, 2015	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Sep 30, 2015	0.2%	-0.2%	0.4%	0.4%
Aug 31, 2015	0.5%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%
Jul 31, 2015	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jun 30, 2015	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
May 29, 2015	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%