Canada CAD

Canada Inflation Rate YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.1%
| CAD
Actual:
1.7%
Forecast: 1.6%
Previous/Revision:
2.3%
Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:
Period: May
What Does It Measure?
The Canada Inflation Rate Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services purchased by households in Canada over the past year, primarily focusing on consumer price changes. It assesses key areas including cost of living, purchasing power, and economic stability, with significant indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflecting inflationary pressures.
Frequency
This indicator is released monthly and comprises both preliminary estimates and revised data, typically published on the third or fourth week of the month following the reporting period.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the inflation rate as it significantly impacts financial markets, influencing central bank monetary policy decisions that affect interest rates. Higher-than-expected inflation rates may strengthen the Canadian dollar (CAD) and lead to bullish behavior in commodity markets, while lower readings can have bearish effects on the currency and equities.
What Is It Derived From?
The Canada Inflation Rate is derived from a comprehensive calculation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which includes a wide-ranging survey of consumer prices across various categories, collected from retail outlets nationwide to ensure a representative sample. The CPI is formulated using a weighted average of prices for a predefined basket of goods and services, adjusted for variations in consumption patterns.
Description
Preliminary reports on the inflation rate are based on initial estimates and can be subject to revisions as additional data become available; final reports provide a more accurate reflection of price changes. The YoY measure is employed to eliminate seasonality effects and highlight long-term trends, allowing for a clearer understanding of inflationary pressures compared to shorter time frames.
Additional Notes
The Canada Inflation Rate acts as a coincident indicator, reflecting current economic conditions and influencing household spending behavior. It also serves as a vital reference for other economic measures, such as wage growth and consumer confidence, and is integral to understanding broader economic trends both domestically and globally.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the CAD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
1.7%
1.6%
2.3%
0.1%
2.3%
2.6%
2.6%
-0.3%
2.6%
2.2%
1.9%
0.4%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.9%
2%
2%
-0.1%
2%
1.9%
1.6%
0.1%
1.6%
1.8%
2%
-0.2%
2%
2.1%
2.5%
-0.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
2.9%
2.9%
-0.2%
2.9%
2.6%
2.7%
0.3%
2.7%
2.7%
2.9%
2.9%
2.7%
2.8%
0.2%
2.8%
3.1%
2.9%
-0.3%
2.9%
3.3%
3.4%
-0.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.1%
3.1%
2.9%
3.1%
0.2%
3.1%
3.2%
3.8%
-0.1%
3.8%
4%
4%
-0.2%
4%
3.8%
3.3%
0.2%
3.3%
3%
2.8%
0.3%
2.8%
3%
3.4%
-0.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.1%
4.3%
0.3%
4.3%
4.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.4%
5.9%
-0.2%
5.9%
6.1%
6.3%
-0.2%
6.3%
6.4%
6.8%
-0.1%
6.8%
6.7%
6.9%
0.1%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.8%
7%
0.1%
7%
7.3%
7.6%
-0.3%
7.6%
7.6%
8.1%
8.1%
8.4%
7.7%
-0.3%
7.7%
7.4%
6.8%
0.3%
6.8%
6.7%
6.7%
0.1%
6.7%
6.1%
5.7%
0.6%
5.7%
5.5%
5.1%
0.2%
5.1%
4.8%
4.8%
0.3%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.4%
4.4%
4.3%
4.1%
0.1%
4.1%
3.9%
3.7%
0.2%
3.7%
3.4%
3.1%
0.3%
3.1%
3.2%
3.6%
-0.1%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
0.1%
3.4%
3.2%
2.2%
0.2%
2.2%
2.3%
1.1%
-0.1%
1.1%
1.3%
1%
-0.2%
1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.1%
0.7%
1%
1%
-0.3%
1%
0.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.7%
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
0.1%
-0.3%
0.1%
0.5%
0.7%
-0.4%
0.7%
0.3%
-0.4%
0.4%
-0.4%
0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.9%
-0.1%
0.9%
1.2%
2.2%
-0.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.4%
0.1%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
0.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2.1%
1.9%
-0.2%
1.9%
2%
2%
-0.1%
2%
1.7%
2%
0.3%
2%
2%
2.4%
2.4%
2.1%
2%
0.3%
2%
2%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
0.1%
1.4%
1.5%
2%
-0.1%
2%
1.7%
1.7%
0.3%
1.7%
1.8%
2.4%
-0.1%
2.4%
2.2%
2.2%
0.2%
2.2%
2.7%
2.8%
-0.5%
2.8%
2.8%
3%
3%
2.5%
2.5%
0.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.2%
0.1%
2.2%
2.5%
2.2%
-0.3%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
-0.1%
2.3%
2.4%
2.2%
-0.1%
2.2%
2%
1.7%
0.2%
1.7%
1.4%
1.9%
0.3%
1.9%
1.9%
2.1%
2.1%
2%
1.4%
0.1%
1.4%
1.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.2%
-0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1%
1%
1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.5%
1.6%
-0.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.8%
2%
-0.2%
2%
2.1%
2.1%
-0.1%
2.1%
1.6%
1.5%
0.5%
1.5%
1.7%
1.2%
-0.2%
1.2%
1.4%
1.5%
-0.2%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.5%
1.1%
-0.2%
1.1%
1.4%
1.3%
-0.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.5%
0.1%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
-0.1%
1.7%
1.7%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.4%
0.1%
1.4%
1.5%
2%
-0.1%
2%
1.7%
1.6%
0.3%
1.6%
1.7%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.5%
1%
-0.1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1.1%
1.3%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1%
-0.1%
1%
1%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.1%
0.8%
1%
1.2%
-0.2%