United States USD

United States Unemployment Rate

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Big Surprise:
-0.1%
| USD
Actual:
4.3%
Forecast: 4.4%
Previous/Revision:
4.4%
Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Apr
What Does It Measure?
The United States unemployment rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. This indicator primarily focuses on labor market conditions, employment levels, and economic health, with key indicators including job creation and workforce participation rates.
Frequency
The unemployment rate is released monthly, typically on the first Friday of the month, and consists of final figures rather than preliminary estimates.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the unemployment rate as it serves as a critical gauge of economic strength; a higher-than-expected rate could indicate a weakening economy, negatively impacting currency values and stock prices. Conversely, a lower-than-anticipated unemployment rate is usually seen as bullish for equities and the currency, as it suggests healthier economic activity.
What Is It Derived From?
The unemployment rate is derived from data collected through the Current Population Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which surveys approximately 60,000 households. This survey employs statistical methods to estimate the number of unemployed individuals actively seeking work, alongside their labor force participation.
Description
The unemployment rate, typically reported as a percentage, compares the number of unemployed individuals to the total labor force and provides insights into the health of the job market in the United States. It is most often represented as Year-over-Year (YoY) data, which allows analysts and traders to observe long-term employment trends while managing seasonality effects in labor statistics.
Additional Notes
The unemployment rate serves as a lagging economic indicator, often reflecting macroeconomic conditions that have already manifested in the job market. Additionally, a significant disparity between unemployment and other indicators like GDP growth or inflation may correlate with underlying economic stresses or resilience.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
-0.1%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
0.1%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
-0.1%
4.4%
4.5%
4.5%
-0.1%
4.6%
4.4%
4.4%
0.2%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
0.1%
 
4.4%  
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.3%
4.2%
-0.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
0.1%
4.1%
4%
4%
0.1%
4%
4.1%
4.1%
-0.1%
4.1%
4.2%
4.2%
-0.1%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.2%
4.2%
-0.1%
4.2%
4.2%
4.3%
4.3%
4.1%
4.1%
0.2%
4.1%
4%
4%
0.1%
4%
3.9%
3.9%
0.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
0.1%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
-0.1%
3.9%
3.7%
3.7%
0.2%
3.7%
3.8%
3.7%
-0.1%
3.7%
3.8%
3.7%
-0.1%
3.7%
3.9%
3.9%
-0.2%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
0.1%
3.8%
3.7%
3.8%
0.1%
3.8%
3.5%
3.5%
0.3%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
-0.1%
3.6%
3.6%
3.7%
3.7%
3.5%
3.4%
0.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.5%
-0.2%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
-0.1%
3.6%
3.4%
3.4%
0.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.5%
-0.2%
3.5%
3.7%
3.6%
-0.2%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
0.1%
3.5%
3.7%
3.7%
-0.2%
3.7%
3.5%
3.5%
0.2%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
-0.1%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
3.6%
0.1%
3.6%
3.5%
3.6%
0.1%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
-0.1%
3.8%
3.9%
4%
-0.1%
4%
3.9%
3.9%
0.1%
3.9%
4.1%
4.2%
-0.2%
4.2%
4.5%
4.6%
-0.3%
4.6%
4.7%
4.8%
-0.1%
4.8%
5.1%
5.2%
-0.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.4%
5.4%
5.7%
5.9%
-0.3%
5.9%
5.7%
5.8%
0.2%
5.8%
5.9%
6.1%
-0.1%
6.1%
5.8%
6%
0.3%
6%
6%
6.2%
6.2%
6.3%
6.3%
-0.1%
6.3%
6.7%
6.7%
-0.4%
6.7%
6.8%
6.7%
-0.1%
6.7%
6.8%
6.9%
-0.1%
6.9%
7.7%
7.9%
-0.8%
7.9%
8.2%
8.4%
-0.3%
8.4%
9.8%
10.2%
-1.4%
10.2%
10.5%
11.1%
-0.3%
11.1%
12.3%
13.3%
-1.2%
13.3%
19.8%
14.7%
-6.5%
14.7%
16%
4.4%
-1.3%
4.4%
3.8%
3.5%
0.6%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
-0.1%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
0.1%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
-0.1%
3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
3.7%
3.7%
-0.2%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
0.1%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.8%
3.8%
-0.2%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.9%
4%
-0.1%
4%
3.9%
3.9%
0.1%
3.9%
3.7%
3.7%
0.2%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
-0.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.9%
0.1%
3.9%
3.9%
4%
4%
3.8%
3.8%
0.2%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
-0.1%
3.9%
4%
4.1%
-0.1%
4.1%
4%
4.1%
0.1%
4.1%
4%
4.1%
0.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.2%
4.2%
-0.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.4%
-0.2%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
0.1%
4.3%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
0.1%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
-0.1%
4.4%
4.6%
4.5%
-0.2%
4.5%
4.7%
4.7%
-0.2%
4.7%
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
0.1%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
4.9%
4.9%
-0.3%
4.9%
4.9%
5%
5%
4.9%
4.9%
0.1%
4.9%
4.8%
4.9%
0.1%
4.9%
4.8%
4.9%
0.1%
4.9%
4.8%
4.7%
0.1%
4.7%
4.9%
5%
-0.2%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4.9%
4.9%
0.1%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
5%
5%
-0.1%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5.1%
5.1%
-0.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.2%
5.3%
-0.1%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.4%
5.5%
-0.1%
5.5%
5.4%
5.4%
0.1%
5.4%
5.4%
5.5%