Japan JPY

Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook

Impact:
Low
Source: Bank of Japan

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
3
Actual:
12
Forecast: 9
Previous/Revision:
13
Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 17
Period: Q2
What Does It Measure?
The Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook measures the business sentiment and economic conditions in Japan's manufacturing sector, reflecting the outlook for production, employment, and overall economic activity. It provides a quantitative assessment based on survey responses from large manufacturers, identifying trends in growth or contraction with a diffusion index, where a reading above 0 indicates positive sentiment and below 0 signifies negative sentiment.
Frequency
The Tankan report is released quarterly, providing both preliminary figures and final updates about a month after the preliminary release, typically on the first business day of the respective quarter.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Tankan report as it serves as a leading indicator of future economic activity in Japan, impacting key assets such as the Japanese yen (JPY) and Japanese equities. Stronger-than-expected sentiment can lead to appreciation of the yen and a bullish outlook for stocks, whereas weaker readings may trigger bearish trends in those markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The Tankan survey is derived from responses collected from approximately 10,000 companies, primarily focusing on large enterprises in the manufacturing sector. The index is calculated using a weighted diffusion index approach, which balances responses on current and expected business conditions, production levels, and employment trends.
Description
The Tankan report provides a snapshot of the current state and future outlook of the manufacturing sector in Japan, reflecting businesses' sentiments about their operational environment. It particularly focuses on variables like production capacity, accommodation of workforce size, and investment plans, making it indicative of broader economic sentiment.
Additional Notes
The Tankan report is a coincident economic measure that offers insights into the manufacturing cycle in Japan, often used in conjunction with other economic indicators like GDP growth and industrial production rates. Its results are compared against previous quarters as well as other economic metrics to contextualize Japan's economic performance within the global landscape.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Mar 31, 2025
12
 9
13
 3
Dec 12, 2024
13
 11
14
 2
Sep 30, 2024
14
 13
14
 1
Jun 30, 2024
14
 13
10
 1
Mar 31, 2024
10
 11
8
 -1
Dec 12, 2023
8
 9
10
 -1
Oct 01, 2023
10
 5
9
 5
Jul 02, 2023
9
 5
3
 4
Apr 02, 2023
3
 4
6
 -1
Dec 13, 2022
6
 6
9
Oct 02, 2022
9
 11
10
 -2
Jun 30, 2022
10
 14
9
 -4
Mar 31, 2022
9
 10
13
 -1
Dec 12, 2021
13
 19
14
 -6
Sep 30, 2021
14
 15
13
 -1
Jun 30, 2021
13
 18
4
 -5
Mar 31, 2021
4
 4
-8
Dec 13, 2020
-8
 -11
-17
 3
Sep 30, 2020
-17
 -17
-27
Jun 30, 2020
-27
 -24
-11
 -3
Mar 31, 2020
-11
 -14
0
 3
Dec 12, 2019
0
 3
2
 -3
Sep 30, 2019
2
 1
7
 1
Jun 30, 2019
7
 6
8
 1
Mar 31, 2019
8
 12
15
 -4
Dec 13, 2018
15
 16
19
 -1
Sep 30, 2018
19
 19
21
Jul 01, 2018
21
 20
20
 1
Apr 01, 2018
20
 22
19
 -2
Dec 14, 2017
19
 22
19
 -3
Dec 13, 2016
8
 9
6
 -1
Dec 13, 2015
7
 11
10
 -4
Oct 01, 2015
10
 10
16
Jul 01, 2015
16
 12
9
 4