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United States USD

United States 30-Year TIPS Auction

Impact:
Low
Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
2.403%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
2.055%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The 30-Year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) auction measures the demand for long-term government bonds that provide protection against inflation by adjusting the principal based on changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This event focuses primarily on investor sentiment regarding inflation expectations and long-term interest rates, key indicators being the bid-to-cover ratio and the yield set during the auction.
Frequency
The 30-Year TIPS auction occurs regularly, typically held quarterly, and the results are disclosed on a specific day of the month as part of the U.S. Treasury's auction calendar, reflecting preliminary outcomes which can be subject to adjustments.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the results of the 30-Year TIPS auction as it can indicate market perceptions of inflation trends and the overall health of the economy, impacting the valuations of related assets. A successful auction with strong demand usually supports the U.S. Dollar and can stabilize equities; conversely, weak demand may lead to bearish sentiments across these markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from bids submitted by investors, including institutional and retail participants, reflecting their anticipation of future inflation and interest rate movements. The auction process itself involves competitive and non-competitive bids, where the allocation is determined based on the lowest accepted yield that satisfies the total amount offered.
Description
The preliminary reports from the auction reflect the immediate interest from investors and market conditions, while subsequent final figures provide an adjusted view of the auction outcome. Traders interpret these results based on the bid-to-cover ratios, with higher ratios typically indicating stronger demand, while fluctuations in yield can signal investor sentiment toward inflation risk.
Additional Notes
The 30-Year TIPS auction serves as a coincident indicator, often reflecting broader economic conditions and investor sentiment regarding inflation and monetary policy. Its results can be compared to other Treasury auctions, such as the 10-Year TIPS auction, with both providing insights into differing expectations for inflation over time.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected demand: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected demand: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to potentially lower interest rates affecting investment returns.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Feb 20, 2025
2.403%
2.055%
Aug 22, 2024
2.055%
2.2%
Feb 22, 2024
2.2%
1.97%
Aug 24, 2023
1.97%
1.55%
Feb 16, 2023
1.55%
0.92%
Aug 18, 2022
0.92%
0.195%
Feb 17, 2022
0.195%
-0.292%
Aug 19, 2021
-0.292%
-0.04%
Feb 18, 2021
-0.04%
-0.272%
Aug 20, 2020
-0.272%
0.261%