Canada CAD

Canada Retail Sales MoM Prel

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Statistics Canada

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.6%

CAD

Actual:

0.5%

Forecast: -0.1%

Previous/Revision:

0.8%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Canada Retail Sales MoM Preliminary report measures the total receipts of retail stores in Canada, focusing on consumer spending patterns. It assesses key areas of retail activity, reflecting the health of the economy through changes in consumption, with a key indicator being a reading above 0.0% indicating expansion and below indicating contraction; it is a national indicator.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the 21st of each month, and the preliminary figures serve as early estimates that may be revised in later updates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor this report closely because it provides insights into consumer spending trends that can influence economic growth forecasts. Variations from expectations can significantly impact currency values, stocks, and bonds; a strong retail sales figure often strengthens the Canadian dollar (CAD) and boosts equities, whereas weaker results may have the opposite effect.

What Is It Derived From?

The monthly retail sales figures are derived from data collected from a sample of retail establishments across Canada, including survey responses and sales data submitted by retailers. The calculations involve analyzing trends in discretionary and non-discretionary spending, utilizing weighted measures to capture the changing dynamics of different retail sectors.

Description

The preliminary report offers a timely snapshot of retail sales performance, which allows analysts and traders to gauge immediate market sentiment. It emphasizes month-over-month changes, making it particularly effective for observing short-term shifts in consumer behavior and their potential implications for economic activity.

Additional Notes

The Canada Retail Sales MoM report is considered a coincident economic indicator, as it reflects current consumption patterns directly tied to economic performance. Its outcomes often compare against other metrics such as GDP growth or inflation figures, illustrating broader economic trends and shifts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 23, 2025	0.5%	-0.1%	0.8%	0.6%
Apr 25, 2025	0.7%	0.1%	-0.4%	0.6%
Mar 21, 2025	-0.4%	0.3%	-0.6%	-0.7%
Feb 21, 2025	-0.4%	-0.3%	2.5%	-0.1%
Jan 23, 2025	1.6%	0.2%	0%	1.4%